The Ups and Downs of Hydrogen: Nel ASA and thyssenkrupp nucera Under Pressure, Can dynaCERT Break Through?

Nel ASA: Slump in Orders and Impairment Charges

Weak market dynamics are taking a heavy toll on the Norwegian hydrogen pioneer Nel. In the second quarter of 2025, revenue from supply contracts plummeted by a whopping 48% to NOK 174 million, while the decline in order intake reached as much as 74%. Nel closed out the full year with a net loss of NOK 1,265 million, which was primarily attributable to write-downs totaling NOK 799 million in the Alkali and PEM Systems segment. To counteract this, the company implemented strict cost-cutting measures and, among other things, temporarily suspended production at its Herøya site. So far, 2026 has not brought a turnaround either. The second quarter showed a negative earnings before interest, taxes, and depreciation (EBITDA) of NOK -155 million.

Declining Revenue Weighs on thyssenkrupp nucera

The outlook is not much better for thyssenkrupp nucera, whose major projects have also stalled. Over the first nine months, the Essen-based company's revenue plummeted from EUR 663 million to EUR 354 million, pushing the operating result (EUR -69 million) deep into the red. In the third quarter of fiscal year 2025/26 alone, revenue in the green electrolyser division shrank to a meagre EUR 36 million. In addition to delays and unplanned cost overruns on major orders, the cancellation of a project in the US hit the electrolysis specialist particularly hard. Only the established chlor-alkali division, with quarterly revenue of EUR 109 million, provides a degree of stability for thyssenkrupp nucera. It is now clear to the Essen-based company that the green transformation is taking significantly longer than originally anticipated. The company is still a long way from a hydrogen boom.

dynaCERT's Retrofit Technology Is Conquering Southeast Asia

While Nel and thyssenkrupp nucera are waiting for their major breakthrough, dynaCERT is taking a more pragmatic approach. Rather than waiting for a sweeping transformation, the Canadian company, led by a German management team, is targeting diesel engines directly with its HydraGEN™ systems. The retrofit devices produce the required hydrogen via on-demand electrolysis of distilled water exactly when the engine needs it. This optimized combustion process increases efficiency and reduces emissions. The key advantage lies in the quick installation: smaller units are ready for use within hours, eliminating costly downtime and allowing users to benefit from dynaCERT's solutions quickly. This could help the company win over additional customers with its technology.

The commercial rollout is gaining momentum, particularly in Southeast Asia. Under the leadership of CEO Kevin Unrath and President Bernd Krüper, Vietnam was selected as a springboard for the entire region. In the waste management sector of the Vietnamese capital, Hanoi, preparations were completed to equip a fleet of heavy-duty trucks. At the same time, dynaCERT reached an agreement with a leading Vietnamese oil and gas company to equip fire trucks, forklifts, and mobile cranes with HydraGEN™ systems. The devices are also already in use on terminal tractors at the port operations of a global logistics giant. All units transmit their performance data directly to the HydraLytica™ digital telematics platform to generate savings profiles for Vietnam and, later, for the entire Asian region.

dynaCERT Also Offers Software

The telematics data collected in this way not only serves as proof of performance for fleet owners but also forms the foundation for a second, highly profitable pillar of dynaCERT's business. Thanks to its approval for the CO₂ credit methodology under the international Verra standard, the company can convert verified savings into tradable credits. This enables recurring software revenue through participation models in CO₂ credits. To finance its growth, management initially raised CAD 2.0 million via convertible bonds in December 2025 and followed up in June 2026 with additional unsecured convertible bonds totaling CAD 5.0 million.

Potential of the dynaCERT Share

Just under a year ago, the research firm GBC AG set a price target of EUR 0.48 for dynaCERT shares. Recent successes in Vietnam, and earlier ones in the European port sector, could bring dynaCERT closer to this scenario once again. If the progress made in recent months materializes in the form of tangible revenue and follow-on orders, dynaCERT shares could become an attractive investment again. The stock is speculative, but dynaCERT strikes a chord in times of high energy prices. Given a market capitalization of only about CAD 50 million, the stock may develop short-term potential in addition to its solid medium-term opportunities—in the past, dynaCERT has repeatedly experienced dynamic surges due to short-covering by short sellers. If the dynaCERT team steps up its efforts in Vietnam or possibly in neighboring countries, the share is likely to react.