Stock Markets Between Speculation, Progress and Falling Prices: HelloFresh, Net Digital and HPQ Silicon

Net Digital Skyrockets: Is There More to the Price Surge Than Just Drone Speculation?

Net Digital shares (WKN: A2BPK3 | ISIN: DE000A2BPK34 | Ticker: VRL) are currently heading in only one direction. After rising by about 60% since the start of the month, it reached a new high of EUR 29.60 on Friday. Since the start of the year, the gain has been just under 70%. What is behind the surge in the Düsseldorf-based tech share price—a short squeeze, drone speculation, or actually a new level of profitability?

The most important news came on Friday afternoon. Net Digital raised its 2026 forecast to about EUR 60 million in revenue and EUR 6.2 to 6.5 million in EBITDA. Previously, the company had expected revenue of only EUR 48 to 53 million and EBITDA of EUR 4.7 to 5.2 million. Compared with the midpoints of the old ranges, the targets rise by about 19% and 28%, respectively. Compared to revenue of EUR 37.8 million in 2025, Net Digital is now aiming for growth of nearly 59%. The operational foundation is evident. In the first half of the year, the group generated EUR 31 million in revenue, up from EUR 13 million in the prior year. EBITDA rose from EUR 1.3 million to approximately EUR 3.2 million. Net Digital processes digital payments and offers telecommunications, messaging, and digital content services. The Executive Board attributes the improved performance to all business segments. To meet the new annual forecast, the company would still need revenue of approximately EUR 29 million and EBITDA of just over EUR 3 million in the second half of the year.

The subsidiary irisnet is drawing additional attention. Together with defence technology developer tms, it is working on the AI-powered drone defence system "perdix". The collaboration announced in mid-September presents an interesting growth opportunity, though no major contract has been announced yet. It is therefore crucial to distinguish between ongoing business and potential future drone defence revenue. Both are likely on investors' minds at the moment, but today's upward revision of the forecast is explicitly attributed to the broad operational performance.

A look at the balance sheet, however, calls for a more nuanced view. At the end of 2025, the company had EUR 2.7 million in cash and cash equivalents with virtually no bank debt. Despite a net income of EUR 2.9 million for the year, operating cash flow reached only just under EUR 1.0 million. The build-up of accounts receivable and other current assets alone reduced cash flow by approximately EUR 6.2 million. Whether the higher profits will translate more substantially into cash in the future therefore remains a key question.

From a technical analysis perspective, the stock has moved far from its moving averages. At EUR 28.50, it is about 35% above the 20-day moving average of EUR 21.20 and about 75% above the 200-day moving average of EUR 16.60.

This shows the strength of the move but, after the recent surge, also increases vulnerability to profit-taking. So far, there is no solid evidence of a short squeeze. Higher annual targets and the excitement around "perdix" already explain why buyers are jumping in. Now Net Digital must prove that rapid revenue growth will translate into sustained free cash flow and that drone technology will become a measurable business.

HPQ Silicon: Technological Breakthrough in the Energy Sector

Against the backdrop of global efforts toward technological sovereignty and diversified supply chains, the Canadian technology company HPQ Silicon (WKN: A3DQZ3 | ISIN: CA40444L1031 | Ticker Symbol: O08) is increasingly positioning itself as an innovative player in critical materials. While the market for advanced battery materials is still heavily dominated by Asian suppliers, HPQ is working with partners to advance lower-emission, more energy-efficient production processes. The focus here is on replacing traditional graphite anodes with advanced silicon materials. This leads to a significant increase in volumetric and gravimetric energy density. Given geopolitical supply chain challenges and government subsidies, this sector is rapidly gaining importance.

A major milestone was reached with the recent grant of a patent by the United States Patent and Trademark Office. Patent US 12,139,378 B2 protects a process developed jointly with PyroGenesis Canada for the production of silicon nanowires using the so-called PUREVAP nano-silicon reactor technology. The proprietary carbon-heat reduction process directly converts quartz into high-purity nanomaterials at significantly lower temperatures and with reduced energy consumption. This technology targets the rapidly growing market for lithium-ion batteries as well as photovoltaic and semiconductor applications. Strategic patent protection secures the company exclusive exploitation rights in the long term and strengthens its negotiating position in industrial commercialization.

In parallel with securing the technology, the transition to commercial exploitation is proceeding through the strategic portfolio company NOVACIUM SAS, in which HPQ holds a 36.8% stake. The French deep-tech company recently secured its first commercial order for more than 100 AA-NOVA battery packs to equip Alta Ares' X-Lock interceptor drones. These drones are being deployed as part of the French Defense Procurement Agency's innovation program. The integrated 21700 GEN3 cells with silicon-based anodes enable high discharge rates and offer a significant weight advantage over reference batteries while delivering the same power output.

From a financial and operational perspective, the combination of intellectual property and initial operational supply agreements creates strong prospects in high-margin niche markets such as defence and security technology. In addition to the drone contract, evaluations for further dual-use applications are already underway, as are discussions with European defence institutions. While the stock remains a speculative small-cap play, technological progress and sales to the French defence industry show a gradual reduction in the business model's risk.

If the planned ramp-up of the next-generation GEN4 cells and the scaling of reactor capacities succeed, HPQ Silicon could sustainably participate in Western reindustrialization and rearmament.

HelloFresh at Record Low: Will Marketing Cuts Backfire?

HelloFresh shares (WKN: A16140 | ISIN: DE000A161408 | Ticker: HFG) hit a new record low on Friday. At one point, it slipped to EUR 2.16; by the close of trading, it stood at around EUR 2.28. Since the beginning of the year, the decline has totaled around 61%. The trigger is yet another downward revision to the forecast. Behind this is a problem critical to the business model: HelloFresh is acquiring far fewer new customers than planned.

The important sales season around the start of the school year did not generate enough orders. According to the company's assessment, this is primarily because third-quarter marketing expenditures were cut more sharply year-over-year than in the first half of the year. This explains the trade-off: Less advertising initially reduces costs, but it also leads to fewer new customers and, later, lower utilization of delivery and production capacity.

For the third quarter, HelloFresh therefore expects a currency-adjusted revenue decline of 11 to 12%. Analysts had anticipated a decline of only 6.8%. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to reach EUR 45 to 55 million, which is also below the market expectation of EUR 57.2 million. By comparison, it was EUR 40 million in the same quarter last year. The company could therefore generate more EBITDA than a year ago despite the weak revenue. The problem is that the recovery expected so far has not materialized.

The implications for the full year are even more severe. Instead of a revenue decline at the lower end of the previous range of 3 to 6%, HelloFresh is now projecting a decline of 9 to 11%. The EBITDA forecast has been lowered from EUR 375 to 425 million to EUR 350 to 370 million. Even the upper end of the range falls short of analysts' estimates of EUR 375.6 million. The warning signs were already evident in the second quarter. Orders fell 13.7% to 21.8 million, even as average order value rose 6.5% to EUR 71.00 on a currency-adjusted basis. Existing customers are spending more, but too few new customers are joining. Adjusted EBITDA also declined from EUR 158.5 to 120.6 million.

At the same time, operating cash flow fell in the first half of the year from EUR 287.9 to 189.7 million; free cash flow dropped from EUR 156.4 to 49.4 million. At the end of June, HelloFresh had EUR 246.9 million in cash and cash equivalents and a long-term loan with a nominal value of EUR 180 million. These funds give the company some breathing room, while the weaker performance increases the pressure to acquire new customers profitably again.

The chart underscores the loss of confidence. At EUR 2.28, the stock is below the 20-day moving average of EUR 2.69, the 50-day moving average of EUR 3.04, and the 200-day moving average of EUR 4.26. The low of EUR 2.16 is now the key short-term level. The full quarterly results will be released on November 5.

Then HelloFresh will have to show whether improved shopping baskets can offset the lack of new customers—and how expensive a return to stronger growth would actually be in terms of marketing.

Net Digital impresses with an upgraded forecast and strong growth, but must prove that this will lead to sustained higher cash flow and a profitable drone business. HPQ Silicon is strengthening its position in high-growth markets with patented silicon technology and its first battery orders, but remains a speculative small-cap stock for investors. HelloFresh is suffering from declining new customer numbers, reduced marketing spending, and a lowered forecast, though its financial stability is safeguarding the group for now.