The new hydrogen turbo: How Plug Power, First Hydrogen, and Nel ASA are benefiting from the AI boom

Plug Power – New orders signal momentum

Plug Power shareholders face an important decision on January 29. An extraordinary meeting will vote on a capital increase designed to create much-needed financial flexibility. Behind the proposal is the harsh reality of continued significant cash consumption. However, management emphasizes that it is initiating a turnaround with cost-cutting initiatives and new sources of revenue. The coming weeks will show how much confidence investors have in this course.

Recent operational successes are particularly encouraging. For example, the Company recently delivered a 5MW electrolyser for a pioneering green hydrogen project in Namibia. This is Africa's first integrated plant of its kind. Another order for the Sunrhyse project by developer Hy2gen in southern France and a first-time supply contract with NASA underscore the global demand for Plug Power's technology. These concrete projects prove that the solution is moving from the drawing board to real-world application.

Despite these positive market signs, the financial side remains the biggest challenge. Losses remain substantial, and the goal of achieving a positive gross margin will not be within reach until mid-2026 at the earliest. For investors, Plug Power therefore remains a bet on the future. The current momentum in large orders must now translate into a noticeable easing of financial constraints in order to convince the skeptical stock market in the long term. The stock is currently trading at USD 2.22.

First Hydrogen – Focus on SMRs

First Hydrogen initially made a name for itself as a developer of hydrogen-powered light transporters. The vehicles have proven themselves in practical trials with fleet customers and have completed over 6,000 test kilometers. However, this is only part of the strategy. The Company is pursuing a vertically integrated model that also includes the production of green hydrogen. In doing so, it is addressing one of the biggest challenges for hydrogen mobility: the reliable and economical availability of clean fuel. The move from vehicle development to in-house fuel production underscores the Company's ambition to serve the entire ecosystem.

Now, First Hydrogen is going one step further and focusing specifically on small modular reactors (SMRs). Through its subsidiary First Nuclear, it is researching the coupling of these reactors with electrolysers. The goal is to produce green hydrogen independently of weather and grid conditions, especially for remote industrial and logistics sites. This approach is intended to offer long-term planning security and stable operating costs. Unlike volatile wind or solar power sources, SMRs can provide a constant base load of energy, which significantly increases the utilization and economic efficiency of electrolysers.

At the heart of the technological considerations is research into molten salt fuels, which are considered safer and more efficient. In collaboration with the University of Alberta, non-radioactive substitute materials are first being tested in order to optimize the design. This strategic direction is gaining momentum. In Canada, the sector is being promoted, and at the EU level, new initiatives are facilitating the financing of hydrogen projects, opening up opportunities for young companies. The molten salt technology chosen also offers inherent safety advantages as it operates at low pressure. The political signals are thus creating a favorable environment for the commercialization of this long-term vision. The share is currently trading at CAD 0.42.

Nel ASA – Difficult present, technology-driven future

Nel ASA's current balance sheet reads mixed. In the last quarter, the Norwegian hydrogen specialist's revenue slumped, and its order backlog is no longer growing. This highlights the core bottleneck in the current market environment. The market is simply developing more slowly than expected. And this is reflected everywhere. Investors are postponing their decisions, and planned projects are being put on the back burner. On a positive note, cost-cutting measures are beginning to bear fruit, and operating losses have decreased. In addition, the liquid reserve of around NOK 1.8 billion continues to provide financial leeway during this transition phase.

The real hope for a turnaround lies in the new product generation. After years of development, the Company has given the green light for the industrialization of its next pressure alkali electrolysis platform. This fully modularized system promises significantly lower investment and installation costs thanks to its container design. The goal is clear: to reduce hydrogen production costs to such an extent that projects become economically viable even without massive subsidies. Commercialization is planned for 2026, with scaling to follow in 2027.

Strategically, Nel continues to position itself as a complete technology provider with alkaline and PEM systems. Despite general industry hesitancy, the Company has recently secured significant individual orders, such as a 40 MW PEM deal in Norway. The long-term outlook now depends largely on whether the new platform can deliver on its cost-efficiency promise in the market and provide the urgently needed boost to order intake. The success of this technological shift will determine the course of the coming years. The share price is currently trading at NOK 2.542.

The hydrogen industry is caught between scarce capital and promising technology. Plug Power is demonstrating market readiness with project orders, but urgently needs to prove its financial sustainability. First Hydrogen is tapping into a high-potential niche for base-load hydrogen production with its research into SMRs. Nel ASA is pinning all its hopes on its new electrolysis platform to reignite sluggish market momentum through lower costs.