September 24th, 2022 | 21:30 CEST
The green wave keeps rolling! Siemens Energy, Nel ASA, Alpha Copper, Plug Power - Copper now at 7,800!
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"[...] We have a clear strategy for neutralizing sovereign risk in Papua New Guinea. [...]" Matthew Salthouse, CEO, Kainantu Resources
Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.
Siemens Energy - Back in the DAX
The former energy division of Siemens AG has been listed independently on the stock exchange as Siemens Energy AG since the fall of 2020. The share started at EUR 23 and initially swung dynamically up to almost EUR 35, then began a long downturn to a low of EUR 11.89 this week due to non-fulfilment of target figures and problems at the subsidiary Siemens Gamesa.
Siemens Energy currently finds itself in the headlines again and again in connection with the maintenance of gas turbines for pipelines from Russia. Beyond any clarification regarding the responsibility in this issue, the constant discussions and the acquisition of the Siemens Gamesa residual shares at EUR 960 million lead to further share price burdens.
Because the stock's market capitalization and sales activity exceeds the same parameters at HelloFresh by a factor of about 2, Siemens Energy shares moved back into the DAX on September 19. It had not had to leave the index until March 2022. Hopefully, this will be enough to stop the current downward trend in the stock as well. 14 analysts expect an average price of EUR 21.86 in 12 months, according to the S&P Capital IQ consensus rating. Calculated from today, that is a premium of around 80%. Collect cautiously!
Alpha Copper - Further acquisitions broaden the base in copper
For Alpha Copper (ALCU), the energy transition and the increasing number of electric vehicles in the next few years is an opportunity for future development into an internationally known commodity stock. The British Columbia-based company started with the Indata (60%) and Okeover (100%) projects and, a few weeks ago, made a takeover bid for additional CAVU Energy Metals Corp. (CAVU) properties. The transaction follows standard regulatory requirements at a 60% premium to the average price over the last 20 trading days.
This is a big step for Alpha Copper, as after the proposed transaction, the combined ALCU and CAVU will be a leading copper explorer with some precious metals deposits in BC and Yukon. CAVU shareholders will hold approximately 30% of the combined company after the share exchange. Together, exploration can be done more cheaply, and the calculated resource increases significantly. The exclusivity clause of the offer runs until the end of October 2022.
Currently, several drill programs totaling 5,000 meters are underway at the Indata project, and the geophysical targets appear highly prospective to date. Initial drill holes show veins of gold-bearing mineralization and adjacent molybdenum mineralized porphyry bodies. Alpha Copper's positioning is aimed at the strategic thrust of critical metals. With the advancement of its projects, Alpha can become a GreenTech supplier in just a few years and address some of the undersupply of copper. ALCU shares are currently trading between CAD 0.30 and CAD 0.40 with good trading volumes, well above the June low of CAD 0.25. The estimated market capitalization after the CAVU transaction will likely be over CAD 20 million. One should put the stock on the investment list as long as the copper price is still correcting.
Nel ASA and Plug Power - The hydrogen story is over for now
Since Joe Biden's announcement to promote hydrogen and other green technologies and investments in health with over USD 430 billion, the H2 stocks knew only one direction: Up! Nel ASA and Plug Power quickly gained between 50 and 100%. The joy was short-lived, however, because since August, the NASDAQ has been heading sharply downward. Higher interest rates are also causing new discount rates for future projects in the growth stocks sector. In this scenario, the present values of planned investments are reduced, in some cases considerably, and this is currently weighing heavily on the share prices of popular public stocks.
A look at the market technology shows how far the current downward trend could continue. Momentum points strongly downward for both stocks, although at least Plug Power can still offer a maintained relative strength index (RSI). Unfortunately, the approach to the 50-day line at about EUR 25 is disturbing here. However, the next support would already be found at EUR 21 to 22. The situation is worse for Nel ASA. Here, the correction has been going on since the break below the 200-day line at EUR 1.45. With a current price of EUR 1.22, the support zone of EUR 1.00 to 1.10 is also not far away. Hydrogen stocks are still expensive from an analytical point of view, but so far, only a few people have been interested in this. For both shares, the following therefore applies: Watch for a few more days to see where the major correction takes these stocks. If the momentum turns upward, one could at least speculatively jump in for a countermovement.
The battle for the governments' popular investment of billions for e-mobility and GreenTech will continue in the medium term. Currently, however, the corrective trend of the NASDAQ is spoiling the balance sheets of global fund managers, and the risk appetite is also dropping significantly. However, when the situation calms down, the old favorites will come back into focus. Copper stocks, such as Alpha Copper, complement long-term growth portfolios.
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