TAKEOVER SPECULATION! Barrick Mining, Evotec, Desert Gold

Desert Gold: 2 Aces for rising prices

When it comes to takeover candidates in the gold sector, the name Desert Gold keeps coming up. In recent weeks, the West Africa-focused explorer has made itself even more attractive to one of the major gold producers through its own acquisition. Exciting news is expected in the coming weeks. That could finally push the stock out of its sideways movement. Desert is currently trading at CAD 0.08, which corresponds to a market capitalization of around CAD 20 million. Analysts at GBC Research estimate the fair value to be CAD 0.425.

There should be some long-awaited news about the flagship SMSZ project in Mali in the coming weeks: The Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for a mine is expected. Given current gold prices, this should be extremely positive. Desert could then ramp up production within a few months and become a gold producer in 2026 – unless it is acquired before then.

With the acquisition of 90% of the Tiegba Gold project in Côte d'Ivoire, the Company has another ace up its sleeve since this year. The country has developed into one of the most stable and investor-friendly mining regions in West Africa. As with SMSZ, Tiegba is also located in the vicinity of numerous gold companies, which are likely to keep an eye on its progress.

Tiegba covers an area of 297 km². Only 20% of the concession area has been explored in detail so far. The potential is correspondingly great. The heart of the project is a gold-in-soil anomaly measuring 4.2 km long and 2.1 km wide. Historical samples showed 50 to over 200 ppb gold. The upcoming tests will now determine the depth of the gold deposit.

https://youtu.be/AQKxVIqmfwQ?si=GiHQAgpnt6w4ISGf

Barrick Mining: Focus on copper for now, but what next?

Barrick is also a potential buyer for both Desert Gold projects. Even if the Company is currently on the selling side for a change. First, let's take a look at the stock: After a rapid rise from EUR 16 to EUR 19 within four weeks, Barrick Mining's stock has settled down somewhat. Similar to the gold price.

However, with Barrick, one must stop looking only at the gold price. That is why the name change makes sense. The renaming of Barrick Gold to Barrick Mining underscores the realignment. Gold remains central, but copper is gaining in importance. CEO Mark Bristow aims to position the Company as a diversified metal producer in the long term, with copper as a second pillar.

A key project on this path is Reko Diq in Pakistan, one of the world's largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits. After long delays, preparations are now underway for production to start in 2028/2029. Investments are also being made in Zambia. The Lumwana mine is to be expanded at a cost of several million USD and copper production doubled to around 240,000 tons.

Parallel to the copper expansion, Barrick is divesting projects that no longer align with its new strategic direction. Instead of capital-efficient, high-cost mines, Barrick wants to focus on large, high-margin deposits with long-term potential. Among the candidates for sale is the Hemlo mine in Canada. The long-established gold mine has been an integral part of the North American portfolio for decades, but has been suffering from declining ore grades and rising operating costs for some time. The sale process has been officially launched and, according to Bloomberg, Discovery Silver is close to acquiring Hemlo.

There could be news by August 11, 2025, at the latest, when Barrick will report on developments for the second quarter.

Evotec: Revenue forecast cut

Evotec will likely need a takeover to see rapid share price gains. This has now become clear once again. On Monday, the German biotech company's shares lost almost 17% after a revenue warning.

Evotec announced that revenue for the current year will be between EUR 760 million and EUR 800 million. The previous forecast was EUR 840 million to EUR 880 million. Last year, revenue amounted to EUR 797 million. The Company cited lower-than-expected revenues in its core business, specifically in the Shared R&D segment, as the reason for the adjustment.

R&D expenses are expected to be between EUR 40 million and EUR 50 million, and thus remain unchanged. This also applies to the adjusted EBITDA forecast of EUR 30 million to EUR 50 million (2024: EUR 22.6 million). The medium-term outlook has also not been adjusted. By 2028, Evotec aims to increase its annual revenue by an average of 8% to 12% and to increase its EBITDA margin to more than 20% during this period.

Evotec CEO Dr. Christian Wojczewski: "We are on track to achieve sustainable, profitable growth. The strong demand for higher-margin business areas reflects the strength of our platforms and confirms the decisions we have made in terms of focus, partnerships, and capital efficiency. While some areas of our business continue to operate in a challenging market environment, the implementation of our "Priority Reset" and our new strategy gives us confidence that we are well positioned to achieve our long-term goals."

Based on the announcement, the share price decline appears somewhat exaggerated. On the other hand, the low growth prospects within the new strategic direction had already been criticized in recent months.

Barrick Mining does not appear to be interested in acquisitions at this time. The focus on large ore projects and the sale of smaller mines seems logical. There is likely to be a lot of activity at Desert Gold in the coming weeks. The Company has acquired an exciting project, and the PEA for its flagship project should pique the interest of investors and potential buyers. Against this backdrop, the stock appears undervalued. At Evotec, on the other hand, investors can probably only hope for a quick return through a takeover.