December 9th, 2021 | 06:11 CET
Steinhoff, HelloFresh, Aspermont: From flop to top
The stock markets continue to be very nervous. The German leading DAX index could not do anything with the good guidance from the US and was slightly in the red. Among the striking shares are the papers of HelloFresh. The cooking box mail-order Company disappointed investors and analysts with its forecast for 2022. The situation is quite different at Aspermont. The preliminary figures were convincing, and analysts see considerable share price potential due to the entry into the FinTech business. In contrast, Steinhoff shares remain a plaything for gamblers. Although there seems to be light at the end of the tunnel, legacy issues have the ailing retail Group and its stock in their grip.
time to read: 3 minutes | Author: Fabian Lorenz
ISIN: STEINHOFF INT.HLDG.EO-_50 | NL0011375019 , HELLOFRESH SE INH O.N. | DE000A161408 , ASPERMONT LTD | AU000000ASP3
Table of contents:
Author
Fabian Lorenz
For more than twenty years, the Cologne native has been intensively involved with the stock market, both professionally and privately. He is particularly passionate about national and international small and micro caps.
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Aspermont convinces analysts: Will the share take off after top figures?
The solid figures for the fourth quarter already indicated it. The full-year 2020/2021 figures (as of September 30) have confirmed it impressively: Aspermont Ltd. has made the leap from a publisher for the mining industry to a digital media company. The Australians are now the market leader in B2B media for the global commodity sectors and have highly scalable growth engines in the XaaS and data businesses. Operating earnings (EBITDA) climbed 288% to over AUD 1.6 million in 2020/21. Operating cash flow was AUD 2.6 million, and 70% of that already comes from recurring revenue. Net cash doubled to over AUD 7 million in the year. Alex Kent, Managing Director of Aspermont, said, "Aspermont has delivered growth across all of its businesses, except for live events, throughout FY2021 despite the pandemic. Our focus on 'quality' revenue has resulted in higher-margin growth, and as a business, we are now self-funded through positive cash flow. Our team has a long track record of developing scalable subscriptions and data-driven business models. We will organically add more products, services, sectors and geographies over the next decade."
As a result, Aspermont's stock should also turn around. The analysts at GBC see considerable upside potential. They recommend the Aspermont share with a price target of AUD 0.09 as a buy (full study: http://www.more-ir.de/d/23118.pdf). It is currently trading at AUD 0.024, corresponding to a market capitalization of around AUD 60 million. The security is also traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, quoted at around EUR 0.015. From GBC's point of view, Aspermont has a unique position in the mining sector. The Company takes advantage of this and enters the lucrative FinTech business. As commodities have entered a supercycle, the timing could not be better. As a result, analysts expect the FinTech business to generate significant cash flow over the next few years. Overall, gross profits should be sustainable and growth expectations realistic.
HelloFresh disappoints with 2022 forecast: Revenue top, earnings flop
HelloFresh has published its first forecast for fiscal year 2022. According to the forecast, the cooking box shipper will continue to invest significantly in long-term growth by expanding its production infrastructure, which is already underway, and further strengthening its technology and data platform. In addition, new countries and brands are to be developed and expanded. Against this backdrop, HelloFresh expects revenue growth of between 20% and 26% in 2022. The average analyst estimates were 17.7%. On the earnings side, the Company expects adjusted EBITDA ("AEBITDA") of between EUR 500 million and EUR 580 million in the coming year. Here, analyst estimates averaged EUR 647 million. In response to the announcement, JPMorgan has reduced the price target for HelloFresh from EUR 85 to EUR 78. The rating remains at "Neutral." Due to the higher-than-expected investments, the analysts significantly cut estimates for adjusted operating profit in 2022.
Steinhoff: Light at the end of the tunnel?
At Steinhoff, on the other hand, the operating development is heading in the right direction. The German-South African Group is benefiting from the positive business performance of its subsidiaries, such as Pepkor. The Steinhoff Supervisory Board also seems to be more optimistic about the future. It wants to reintroduce a stock option program as part of management remuneration. Of course, this only makes sense for all parties involved if the Group - and thus the share - develops positively in the long term. The Supervisory Board intends to put the options program to the vote at the next Annual General Meeting. However, the share price only reacted to the encouraging news with a jump to EUR 0.23. In the meantime, the share is trading at EUR 0.13, the same level as at the beginning of the summer. The reason: the legacy issues surrounding the accounting scandal that has been smoking since the end of 2017 continue to threaten to drag the ailing retail Group into the abyss. The latest bad news was that the former Tekkie Town majority owners - among them founder Braam van Huyssteen - filed for the liquidation of the Steinhoff Group. The plaintiffs had sold their shares in Tekkie Town to Steinhoff in 2016 and received shares in the German-South African Group in return, largely losing their assets just one year later. Due to the current application, further court proceedings are suspended. Steinhoff shares will remain a plaything for gamblers until decisions are made in the various proceedings.
Things remain exciting for all three shares. Aspermont is doing well operationally, and the share seems ripe for a rise. At HelloFresh, investors must first digest the disappointing forecast, and Steinhoff remains a gambler's stock.
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