July 18th, 2022 | 15:00 CEST
Significantly higher targets at BYD and Barsele Minerals, a setback in hydrogen for Plug Power
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"[...] One focus will be on deposits near the surface. These would be good arguments for a quick production decision using the low-cost heap leaching method. [...]" Brodie Sutherland, CEO, Tocvan Ventures
Plug Power - Inflation ahead of the climate package
A real sell-off occurred in US stocks with fuel cell technology on Friday afternoon. FuellCell Energy and Ballard Power, for example, plummeted by around 8% in US trading. The pioneer and market leader Plug Power recorded a minus of even 12.90% to USD 15.46. The reason for this is statements by US Senator Joe Manchin that he would no longer support the environmental spending plans of the Biden administration.
According to a CNN report, Manchin told Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and his staff "unequivocally" that he would not support the climate or tax provisions of a Democratic economic package.
The CNN report also said Manchin's office referred to rising inflation. "Political headlines are worthless to the millions of Americans who cannot afford food and gasoline in the face of 9.1% inflation," Manchin spokesman Sam Runyon said in a statement. "Senator Manchin believes it is time to set aside the political agenda, reevaluate, and adjust to the economic realities of the country to avoid steps that will further fuel inflation," Runyon said. In the meantime, however, Manchin rejected a fundamental "no" to the climate package.
Due to the much-needed stimulus package, already beleaguered renewable energy stocks are further weakened by renewed uncertainties. From a technical perspective, Plug Power is now severely battered. Holding support at USD 13.95 is essential. Otherwise, new lows for the year at the USD 12.70 level loom.
Barsele Minerals - Close to the bottom
A strong US dollar, in the meantime, the parity between the USD and the Euro was undercut, ensured that the gold price once again left the trading session with a negative weekly performance. The gold price fell briefly below the mark of USD 1,700 per ounce, but in the end, it could hold its ground above it again. Fundamentally, there is much to be said for significantly higher prices in the precious metals sector in the long term. However, experts still see the potential for a correction in the short to medium term, especially from the technical camp, which can extend in a target zone between USD 1,600 and USD 1,680 per ounce of gold.
As so often in history, gold producers and smaller exploration companies have run ahead of the trend. At Barsele Minerals, this development is clearly visible. Since May of last year, the value of the Canadian company has lost over 70%, with a market capitalization of EUR 27.64 million. On the other hand, if we look at the economic data of the Barsele project of the same name, which is operated jointly with Agnico Eagle in the mining region of Västerbottens Län in northern Sweden, 600km north of Stockholm, this presents an opportunity for a multibagger. In 2016, the Royal Bank of Canada valued the project at USD 375 million at a gold price of USD 1,350 per ounce.
Agnico Eagle, which owns a 55% stake in the 34,500-hectare project, has been managing and funding exploration work for years and has drilled some 155,000m with over 400 holes. In 2019, Barsele released a resource estimate of 2.41 million ounces of gold. The next target is to achieve a resource estimate of 3.5 million ounces through a further 30,000m drill program. The planned takeover of the Agnico Eagle share by the Canadians failed last year for the time being, but the project is still not off the table. Even if the tide should turn and the major wants to seize the Barsele project for itself, the 45% share of Barsele is clearly too cheap compared to the stock market valuation. Thus, even with a weaker gold market, this could represent an attractive anticyclical entry opportunity.
BYD - Top sales and half-year figures
In contrast to Plug Power, the end of the week was much more favourable for BYD, despite the high fluctuations. In general, it can be seen that the Chinese electric mobility company is doing much better compared to its peer group. Since the beginning of the year, a performance of 52% is on the books. In contrast, competitor Tesla lost 44%, and Chinese market participant NIO lost around 35%.
After the publication of preliminary half-year figures, the net result is at least 140% higher than in the same period of the previous year, and the "Build Your Dream" company was showered with praise from analysts. Thus, the major Swiss bank Credit Suisse awarded the rating "outperform" and increased the price target to HKD 380, equivalent to EUR 48.00, after the results. The investment bank Goldman Sachs is equally bullish on the leading Chinese electric car company. The verdict is still a buy, and the price target was increased to HKD 404, equivalent to EUR 51.15. In addition, BYD remains on the analysts' "Conviction List".
Politicians in the US are questioning the climate package, causing the share of fuel cell manufacturer Plug Power to plummet. BYD was able to increase sales figures in June significantly. In contrast, the gap between the economic data and the current share price of Barsele Minerals is widening.
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