October 4th, 2022 | 12:59 CEST
Shares in focus: VW, Porsche, Barsele Minerals - Big shifts, many opportunities!
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"[...] In our experience, the local communities are supportive and friendly. [...]" Steve Cope, President, CEO and Director, Silver Viper
Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.
VW places Porsche - Now to finance the technological transformation
Not everyone had believed in success, but now the deal is done. Volkswagen AG has placed 25% of the preferred shares of its sports car subsidiary Porsche AG on the stock exchange. There are a total of 911 million shares with a value of approximately EUR 74.5 billion, divided in half between ordinary and preferred shares. That means that 113.87 million Porsche preferred shares are now listed, with a broad spread of EUR 9.3 billion. The parent company VW should be pleased with the increase in cash.
Because with the proceeds, the VW Group can now finally continue its transformation into a global manufacturer of electric vehicles. The share of sales accounted for by electric vehicles is still modest, and the hybrid versions will also lose their appeal from 2023 due to the discontinuation of subsidies. For Porsche AG, the positive business trend is likely to continue.
After all, they delivered 302,000 vehicles in 2021, 13.6% of which were already fully electric. In the current year, sales are expected to rise from EUR 33 billion to EUR 38 billion, with a return on sales of just under 18%. This makes Porsche an earnings pearl in the VW Group with good growth potential. After all, if the share price rises, VW can also put further Porsche shares on the market. At the current price of EUR 125, the Wolfsburg-based company is trading at a P/E ratio of 3.7 and is expected to pay a dividend of around 7%.
Porsche SE buys 25% of Porsche AG - The families want to have a say again
However, these are not the only funds VW will generate via this transaction. The founding Piech and Porsche families want to acquire 25% of the ordinary shares plus 1 share again via their holding company Porsche SE (formerly Porsche Automobil Holding SE). A premium of 7.5% has been negotiated with VW as a premium for the blocking minority and the regained say. The whole thing will be implemented as a pour-out-get-back measure at the next Annual General Meeting, as VW intends to distribute 49% of the issue proceeds of the Porsche preferential action by way of a special dividend.
There was relief among the owners of Porsche SE last week. Because the long-running, billion-dollar legal dispute about the consequences of the failed VW takeover by Porsche in 2008 was positively decided for the first time. The judges at the Higher Regional Court of Celle rejected numerous plaintiffs, so the model declaratory action was unsuccessful. At that time, Porsche Automobil Holding had attempted to take over the much larger VW Group. In the end, Porsche SE did hold the majority in Volkswagen with 52.2%. However, the attempt to take over 75% of VW failed abruptly, and the sports car brand went to VW. Investors in VW lost a lot of money due to the artificially initiated short squeeze to over EUR 1,000. They felt that they had been misleadingly informed by both groups and demanded compensation. The process has lasted over 5 years but will likely not be concluded as yet. In purely arithmetical terms, the Porsche SE share should now be based on the prices of VW and Porsche AG.
Barsele Minerals - Here, too, a deal is more than probable
Far away from German premium manufacturers, we find the raw material projects of Barsele Minerals in the mining region of Västerbottens Län in northern Sweden. Besides the indicated 2.4 million ounces of gold, there are also mineralizations of lead, zinc, and nickel - sought-after metals for all GreenTech applications. In the joint venture with Agnico Eagle, the project is being systematically driven forward because Scandinavia, which is rich in resources, is currently very much in focus due to the energy and raw materials crisis in Europe. In addition to Norway, there are sufficient mineral resources here that could become highly interesting in the event of ongoing geopolitical conflicts. For years, Scandinavia has been a developer of climate-friendly technologies and offers smaller mining companies appropriate opportunities to participate in the big picture.
Barsele Minerals owns an excellent property and has a major on its side. The movements in the share are currently already conspicuously quiet. That is because all explorer shares have gone into reverse gear in Canada, unlike the Barsele share. For several weeks it has been moving around the placement price of the last capital increase, and at regular intervals all letter pages up to CAD 0.38 are neatly bought out of the book. If that is not a sign of a collector in the background. At CAD 0.45, the first warrants come into the money, and then the turnover should increase by leaps and bounds. The share is speculatively highly interesting.
Despite all the sell-offs, interesting investment objects appear on the radar screen almost daily. It is advisable to also pay attention to insider transactions. The VW-Porsche deal is now off the table; the medium-term opportunity is more likely to lie in Porsche SE. Investors who want to bet on a solution to the European commodity crisis should have Barsele Minerals on their list.
Conflict of interest
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