December 8th, 2022 | 09:09 CET
Shares: Buy FlatexDegiro now? Uniper gambles, Aspermont before multiplication and Nel ASA?
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"[...] In Canada, there is $1.75 of debt for every dollar of disposable income - and that was true even before the pandemic. [...]" Karim Nanji, CEO, Marble Financial
Aspermont: Multiplication potential
Analysts at GBC Research continue to believe that Aspermont's stock has the potential to multiply. Aspermont provides over 4 million customers from the global commodities industry with information and an increasing number of financial services - cloud-based. That makes the Australians a media and fintech company rolled into one. In its latest report following the release of preliminary figures, GBC is pleased with the Company's operational performance. With revenue growth of 17% to AUD 18.7 million in fiscal 2022 (ending September 30), Aspermont had finally put the constraints of the COVID-19 pandemic behind it. Particularly encouraging: the recurring revenue share increased from 70% to 75%. In fiscal 2023, which is now underway, growth could even increase to 20%, analysts said.
Things are also looking good on the earnings side. Aspermont's EBITDA from operations increased by 40% to AUD 2.3 million in fiscal 2022. In addition, the Australians have cash on hand of AUD 6.6 million, and one is increasingly able to finance growth investments from cash reserves and cash flow. The Company itself is also confident. Alex Kent, Managing Director of Aspermont, said, "As per prior guidance, FY22 was an excellent year for Aspermont, at all levels. Given the challenging global conditions, our consistent growth confirms the resilience of our business models and key management to deliver progress regardless of overall financial conditions."
Aspermont has announced further sustainable growth. In addition, the market in North America is to be explored soon. In line with this, a listing on the US stock exchange Nasdaq is likely.
At AUD 0.02, the market capitalization is AUD 31.4 million. Anything but a lot for a company increasingly growing in the high-margin cloud business. GBC also sees it this way and recommends the share as a buy with a price target of AUD 0.11. (Study for download more-ir.de/d/26135.pdf)
Uniper: Only for gamblers?
Uniper is deep in the crisis. Likely no other German company has been so severely affected by Russia's war of aggression on Ukraine. Gas replacement costs now add up to EUR 11.6 billion. The future of the Company is uncertain. Shortly before Christmas, shareholders are expected to approve the stabilization package agreed upon with the German government at an extraordinary shareholders' meeting. The government is to pay EUR 1.70 per Uniper share and subsequently hold 99% of the shares. Nevertheless, the stock is currently trading at EUR 3.40 and has become the plaything of gamblers.
Analysts also believe that the share price is too high. Most recently, UBS renewed its Sell recommendation and reduced the price target from EUR 2 to EUR 1.80. The analysts see "no solid fundamental basis for a more optimistic assessment". The analysts attribute the interim doubling of the share price to over EUR 6 to the closing of short sales. Uniper itself is seeking damages from Gazprom. Thus, arbitration proceedings against Gazprom Export before an international arbitration court have been applied for. Whether this should one day be successful is anything but certain.
FlatexDegiro: Buy after price slide?
FlatexDegiro made headlines and a crashing share price this week. The reasons were sales and profit warnings from the online broker and investigations by BaFin. Yesterday, the share fell again by 5%. Thus, the security has lost about 40% in three trading days and is now trading at just over EUR 6. Analysts consider this to be too little. Jefferies initially confirmed its Buy recommendation but reduced its price target from EUR 18 to EUR 13. Yesterday, Goldman Sachs changed its stance and downgraded the share from "Buy" to "Neutral". The analysts more than halved the price target from EUR 19 to EUR 8. The BaFin investigations show that the regulatory environment is becoming more difficult. From the analysts' point of view, there are also operational problems: Growth is slowing down, and costs are rising. This trend is likely to continue in 2023.
Nel and Plug Power: Analysts on the sidelines
While the shares of Nel and Plug Power lost again significantly yesterday, analysts are surprisingly calm about the two hydrogen pure plays at the moment. It seems they want to wait for the results of the current quarter. With Plug Power, there is no sell recommendation at present, according to wsj.com. Most recently, Citigroup reduced the price target for the Plug Power share from USD 28 to USD 20. The recommendation is still Buy. The stock is currently trading between USD 13 and 14. The last assessment for Nel was made some time ago. Most recently, Jefferies confirmed the buy recommendation for the hydrogen hopeful from Norway. The price target is NOK 19. Currently, the share is trading at around NOK 14.50.
Aspermont is strong in growth, debt-free and appears favorably valued. The high proportion of recurring revenues is reassuring, and a possible Nasdaq listing brings fantasy. Nel and Plug Power continue to receive buy recommendations from analysts, but there is no urgent need for short-term investors to buy them. Valuations remain high, and both companies need to resume faster growth and get their costs under control. FlatexDegiro has deeply disappointed investors for now. But at least for analysts, the price slide proved too steep. Uniper is and remains only something for gamblers.
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