Close menu




April 19th, 2023 | 08:10 CEST

Plug Power crashes, SMA Solar share plus 60%, and when will Almonty Industries start?

  • Mining
  • Tungsten
  • Solar
  • renewableenergies
  • photovoltaics
Photo credits: BYD Limite

What is going on at Plug Power? Hydrogen shares are not among the investor favourites at the moment, but all dams are breaking at the US company. The share is now trading below USD 10 and EUR 9. Is an improvement in sight? The situation is different at SMA Solar. The share price of the German solar company is higher than it has been for 10 years. This year alone, it went up more than 60%. Time for a breather? The Almonty Industries share has taken such a breather in recent weeks. However, the tungsten producer is doing well operationally, and analysts see almost 200% upside potential as the Company faces a milestone.

time to read: 4 minutes | Author: Fabian Lorenz
ISIN: PLUG POWER INC. DL-_01 | US72919P2020 , SMA SOLAR TECHNOL.AG | DE000A0DJ6J9 , ALMONTY INDUSTRIES INC. | CA0203981034

Table of contents:


    Almonty Industries facing revaluation: Tungsten mine to go into production in 2023

    When it comes to critical raw materials for electromobility, tungsten is usually overshadowed by lithium. Wrongly so. In the list of the most important metals for the EU, tungsten receives 7 out of 8 possible points. That makes it more important than cobalt, copper and titanium. The reason: tungsten is urgently needed for the batteries of the next generation. It replaces the controversial cobalt and is supposed to improve charging performance, endurance and safety through a higher energy density. In addition, tungsten is essential as a hardening metal in alloys for the defence and high-tech industries. The problem is that the mining areas for this critical metal are primarily located in China and Russia. Almonty Industries wants to change this.

    Today, Almonty already produces about 78,000 metric tonnes of tungsten trioxide from the Panasqueira mine in Portugal. That provides the Canadian-based company with gross revenues of CAD 24.8 million in 2022. The operating result (EBITDA) of the mine was positive. There was still a loss at the group level in 2022, as Almonty is investing heavily in mine development in Spain and South Korea. Both projects in Spain are in further permitting processes. A milestone will be the start of the tungsten mine in South Korea, which is to take place before the end of the current year. Almonty should thus become the leading tungsten producer outside China. For further details on Almonty's figures and prospects, please see the latest update from researchanalyst.com (link https://researchanalyst.com/de/updates/aktien-news-almonty-industries-strategische-metalle-fuer-die-energiewende).

    The analysts at German Sphene Capital expect production to start in South Korea before the end of 2023. That would lead to a massive jump in sales and earnings already in the current year. Sphene forecasts that Almonty will increase sales to CAD 60.9 million and net profit to CAD 5.8 million in 2023. In the coming year, the revenue mark of EUR 100 million should be cracked, the net profit multiplied to over EUR 25 million, and the share finally revaluated. Anyone now curious should mark May 10, 2023, in their calendar. That is when Almonty CEO, Lewis Black, will present the Company at the 7th IIF virtual investor conference (link to registration https://ii-forum.com). The update on South Korea should be exciting and could boost the share.

    Plug Power: Share falls like a stone

    There is no sign of a boost in the Plug Power share at the moment. This also applies to the other hydrogen high-flyers, such as Nel and ITM Power. In euro terms, British ITM Power has even become a penny stock. Plug Power has yet to reach that point, but at the moment, the share is not finding a foothold. In USD, it is trading below 10 and in EUR below 9. Since February alone - when the price was just below USD 18 - the stock has almost halved. Investors seem to doubt the sustainability of the business models of the entire peer group. Losses are often higher than revenues, and it is uncertain whether this will change. The Americans had reported revenues of USD 701 million and a net income of USD -724 million for 2022. The loss was equivalent to USD 1.25 per share. The forecasts for the coming years do not look bad: in 2023, USD 1.4 billion in revenue and a gross margin of 10%; in 2024, USD 2.2 billion in revenue and a gross margin of 25%; and in 2025, USD 3.3 billion in revenue and 30% gross margin. But with the stock currently dropping like a stone, investors need more confidence in management. After all, Plug Power is valued at over USD 5 billion even now.

    SMA Solar: After 60% in 2023, the air is getting thinner

    For many years, SMA Solar had to deal not only with lost investor confidence but also with weak business performance. The Company has overcome both. The share is currently trading at a level it has not seen in over 10 years. Yesterday it reached a new all-time high of over EUR 104. That means the share has gained over 60% in the current year alone.

    The reason for the price fireworks of the past weeks was the raising of the annual forecast. Demand is high, and supply chain problems are dissolving more and more. The specialist for inverters for photovoltaic systems aims to generate sales of between EUR 1.45 and 1.6 billion in 2023. EBITDA is expected to climb to between EUR 135 and 175 million. Analysts had previously expected sales of only EUR 120 million on average. At the same time, SMA is diversifying its product portfolio outside of classic inverters. Among other things, the technology company is working on an energy management platform, including a battery for the smart home market and for industrial customers. The Company also wants to be involved in the hydrogen sector in the future: SMA wants to score with a turnkey container solution for producing green hydrogen.

    However, the air could become thin for the share for the time being. A consolidation phase should certainly do the chart some good. After all, SMA Solar is now valued at EUR 3.6 billion. Analysts have not yet raised their price targets either. Jefferies recommends buying the share, but the price target is EUR 85. Numerous research updates are likely in the coming weeks. Either price targets will be raised, or downgrades are imminent.


    Buying the Plug Power share would be like trying to catch a falling knife. A countermovement is possible at any time after the crash, but its sustainability may be doubted until the Company shows progress in margins. SMA Solar is currently running like clockwork, and "the trend is your friend". However, consolidation should not come as a surprise. Almonty will be exciting in the current year. If everything goes well at the start of production in South Korea, the share of the tungsten producer should be on the verge of a revaluation.


    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") currently hold or hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies and speculate on their price developments. In this respect, they intend to sell or acquire shares or other financial instruments of the companies (hereinafter each referred to as a "Transaction"). Transactions may thereby influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.
    In this respect, there is a concrete conflict of interest in the reporting on the companies.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.
    For this reason, there is also a concrete conflict of interest.
    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

    Risk notice

    Apaton Finance GmbH offers editors, agencies and companies the opportunity to publish commentaries, interviews, summaries, news and the like on news.financial. These contents are exclusively for the information of the readers and do not represent any call to action or recommendations, neither explicitly nor implicitly they are to be understood as an assurance of possible price developments. The contents do not replace individual expert investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell the discussed share(s) or other financial instruments, nor an invitation to buy or sell such.

    The content is expressly not a financial analysis, but a journalistic or advertising text. Readers or users who make investment decisions or carry out transactions on the basis of the information provided here do so entirely at their own risk. No contractual relationship is established between Apaton Finance GmbH and its readers or the users of its offers, as our information only refers to the company and not to the investment decision of the reader or user.

    The acquisition of financial instruments involves high risks, which can lead to the total loss of the invested capital. The information published by Apaton Finance GmbH and its authors is based on careful research. Nevertheless, no liability is assumed for financial losses or a content-related guarantee for the topicality, correctness, appropriateness and completeness of the content provided here. Please also note our Terms of use.


    Der Autor

    Fabian Lorenz

    For more than twenty years, the Cologne native has been intensively involved with the stock market, both professionally and privately. He is particularly passionate about national and international small and micro caps.

    About the author



    Related comments:

    Commented by André Will-Laudien on June 17th, 2024 | 06:45 CEST

    Acute threat? Armaments and high-tech in the crosshairs: Aixtron, Almonty Industries, Rheinmetall and Hensoldt

    • Mining
    • Tungsten
    • hightech
    • Defense
    • armaments

    The recent European elections have enabled the conservative camp to make significant gains. Undoubtedly, a whole bouquet of issues has led to the so-called "shift to the right". In times of war, however, the neutral observer may not be surprised that the self-proclaimed peace parties, represented by the colours red and green, have lost considerable ground. After all, the competence for peacemaking and security in Europe tends to be found in the conservative camp. The capital markets currently favour high-tech and armaments, orders are booming, and growth is assured for years to come. It is now crucial for stock market players to take a closer look at these sectors, as the high-yield performers of the first half of the year appear to be correcting more strongly. What will happen here in the medium term?

    Read

    Commented by Fabian Lorenz on June 13th, 2024 | 07:00 CEST

    Stocks on the verge of a breakout! Rheinmetall, TUI, Desert Gold

    • Mining
    • Gold
    • Defense
    • Travel

    Will Rheinmetall soon reach a new all-time high? An insider thinks so and is buying a sizeable block of shares in the armaments group. The news situation could hardly be better for the DAX-listed company. The price of gold could also break out and rise to USD 2,700 in the next wave, according to a renowned expert. Desert Gold should benefit noticeably from this. The Company's market capitalization is only a fraction of the proven gold resource, and drilling continues. And what is TUI doing? The share is not making any real progress. However, it should benefit from the FTI collapse, and the crucial summer season brings a high booking volume.

    Read

    Commented by André Will-Laudien on June 12th, 2024 | 07:15 CEST

    After the election, buy a combustion engine now? Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Globex Mining and BYD on the test track

    • Mining
    • Gold
    • Commodities
    • Electromobility
    • Batteries

    The crushing defeat of the green camp in the EU elections has caused a stir in the automotive industry. Will the ban on combustion engines be overturned in favour of a general openness to technology? It is well known that the best conventional vehicles come from Germany, and they are demonstrably no more harmful to the climate than current e-vehicles. Voters have finally lifted the green veil, and the doctrine of the know-it-alls is now in retreat. From a climate perspective, investing in battery storage systems makes sense, but they do not necessarily have to be installed in vehicles. How can investors benefit from the current situation?

    Read