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March 30th, 2023 | 13:19 CEST

Panic at Vonovia and Plug Power - Barrick Gold and Tocvan Ventures shine

  • Mining
  • PreciousMetals
  • Gold
  • fuelcell
  • RealEstate
Photo credits: pixabay.com

Concrete gold? Real estate stocks are currently in an absolute panic. The share of Germany's industry leader Vonovia recovered somewhat yesterday, but an end to the downward slide is not in sight. Analysts are also skeptical. The range of price targets is broad, and there is already speculation about an (emergency) capital increase. So buy or sell? The Plug Power share could also use some buying. From a chart perspective, the situation is critical. Fuel cells for smaller forklifts are now being offered. The situation is different at Barrick Gold. The group's share is about to break out to the upside. Price targets for gold of USD 3,000 provide for a good mood. Tocvan Ventures should also benefit from this. The gold and silver explorer published news about its project in Mexico yesterday, and the stock is waking from its slumber - there appears to be further air to the upside.

time to read: 5 minutes | Author: Fabian Lorenz
ISIN: VONOVIA SE NA O.N. | DE000A1ML7J1 , PLUG POWER INC. DL-_01 | US72919P2020 , BARRICK GOLD CORP. | CA0679011084 , TOCVAN VENTURES C | CA88900N1050

Table of contents:


    Tocvan Ventures: Positive newsflow sustains upward trend

    Yesterday, the share price of Tocvan Ventures reacted to positive news from the Pilar gold-silver project in Mexico with a temporary jump of more than 5%. The positive newsflow and the upward trend of the share continue. The Canadians have the two gold-silver projects, Pilar and El Picacho, in the Mexican state of Sonora and thus in the heart of the Mexican gold region. Last year, the Company reported high-grade mineralization and secured financial resources for further drilling in a capital increase at the end of 2022. Since then, the stock has recovered from its lows and formed an uptrend.

    Yesterday, Tocvan Ventures reported progress on the first bulk sample from the Pilar project. Over 1,200 tons of material have been stockpiled, and the first shipments have been completed. Crushing and screening of the material has begun. Installation of the foundation and the drainage system for the leach pond is also underway. Separate from the bulk sample, Tocvan announced that the five samples from the precious metal diagnostic leach tests contained high-grade results: 6.2 g/t Au, 7.6 g/t Au, 1.3 g/t Au, 11.1 g/t Au and 7.6 g/t Au, respectively. Diagnostic leach testing is ongoing, and material for this has been collected from four trenches and a selected bulk sample of drill core. In addition, several concealed adit entrances along quartz vein structures were exposed at Pilar during the excavation of the trenches associated with the bulk sample. This is another indicator of the robust mineralized system and a valuable tool for mapping new high-grade structures.

    "We are extremely pleased with the progress of bulk sampling to date and how quickly we are learning more about the robust mineralized system at Pilar," said CEO Brodie Sutherland. "During the excavation of the trenches and trenching for the sample, we exposed historic workings clearly targeting high-grade mineralization. The new outcrops also provide us with excellent structural data that will improve our modeling. We are also seeing free gold in the finer fraction of the sample material, which we will evaluate further. In addition, the initial results showing the gold content (head-grade) of the samples collected for diagnostic leaching are very encouraging."

    In addition to the Company's performance, the gold price trend also currently fits the bill. Investment professional Leigh Goehring had only recently forecast a possible rise in the gold price to USD 3,000 per ounce before the end of this year. He is a managing director at Goehring & Rozencwajg, managing a commodity fund, among other things. Goehring expects the US Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates and perhaps even cut them this year. After the banking crisis began in recent weeks, that likelihood has increased. "Then we will have another big inflation problem," he warned in an interview with Kitco News. If the forecast comes true, gold stocks are at least an attractive portfolio addition. In addition to industry heavyweights such as Barrick Gold and Newmont, explorers can be worthwhile as leverage to the gold price.

    Vonovia: Is the capital increase coming?

    From gold to concrete gold. The latter has lost a lot of its shine in recent months. The sector is suffering from higher interest rates and high inflation, which are affecting the affordability of real estate and driving up financing costs. The recent sell-off in real estate stocks was triggered by a study by Barclays and Citigroup. From the point of view of the analysts of Citigroup, European commercial real estate shares are threatened with further price losses of 50%. The Barclays experts see further price risks in the entire sector. German residential real estate companies have yet to adapt their business models and balance sheets to the changed environment of high-interest rates. Dividend cuts are a first step. In addition, sales are generally an option. However, the dried-up market makes sales difficult. In the course of the study, Vonovia was downgraded by Barclays from "Equal-Weight" to "Underweight", and the price target was reduced from EUR 28 to EUR 18. RBC is a bit more optimistic. The analysts of the Canadian bank consider Vonovia's valuation to be attractive. However, they believe a capital increase is possible. On Friday, they reduced the price target for Vonovia shares from EUR 37 to EUR 33. The recommendation remains "Outperform".

    Plug Power: Massively battered in terms of the chart

    Analysts have not commented positively on Plug Power for quite some time. According to nasdaq.com, the average price target for the shares of the hydrogen specialist is USD 26. The experts' opinions diverge widely. The lowest price target is USD 13, and the highest is USD 78. The Plug share is currently quoted at USD 10.50 and is in a clear downward trend. In the current year alone, it will soon have lost 50% of its value. The reason is the same as for so many companies in the industry: Despite the excellent framework conditions for hydrogen, Plug Power, Nel ASA & Co. have unfortunately not yet succeeded in establishing profitable business models.

    Operationally, there has been little news to report recently. The Americans have announced that they will expand their product range for smaller fleets of forklift trucks. According to Plug Power, the switch to hydrogen-powered forklifts was only worthwhile for a fleet of over 100 vehicles. Smaller operators will now be offered a modular H2 storage solution. Jose Luis Crespo, general manager of fuel cell applications and global accounts, says, "Plug's expanded GenKey offering gives customers with fewer than 100 forklifts per warehouse the opportunity to switch to fuel cells and use a much more affordable, reliable and sustainable fuel."
    According to Plug Power, hydrogen-powered forklifts are now competitive in their home market of the US and account for as much as 25% of sales.

    Fuel cells for small commercial vehicles have been Plug Power's core business to date. Source: Plug Power

    Gold shines again. Gold stocks have not yet fully benefited from the upswing and offer opportunities. This applies to heavyweights like Barrick Gold and Newmont, as well as newcomers like Tocvan Ventures. The shares of Vonovia and Plug Power are both ripe for a countermovement. Still, the fundamental problems of the industries, such as rising interest rates (real estate) and loss-making business models (hydrogen), remain.


    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.

    For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.

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    Der Autor

    Fabian Lorenz

    For more than twenty years, the Cologne native has been intensively involved with the stock market, both professionally and privately. He is particularly passionate about national and international small and micro caps.

    About the author



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