Close menu

June 22nd, 2022 | 13:40 CEST

Nordex, Saturn Oil + Gas, Shell - Reality vs Idealism: Long in oil stocks!

  • Oil
  • Sustainability
  • Investments
Photo credits:

The idea that renewable energies will feed the world's entire energy needs is desirable but unrealistic in the short term. In the political debate in Germany, we are currently seeing how far apart the target images of "green" or "sustainable" and security of supply can be. In an exemplary manner - and this is meant with a wink - Europe's largest economy is shutting down its nuclear power plants and now suddenly realizes that its great dependence on Russia's gas supplies is creating a supply risk. Now a ramp-up of coal-fired power plants is supposed to fix it. For logical and forward-looking investors, oil stocks are worth a look.

time to read: 4 minutes | Author: Carsten Mainitz
ISIN: NORDEX SE O.N. | DE000A0D6554 , Saturn Oil + Gas Inc. | CA80412L8832 , Shell PLC | GB00BP6MXD84

Table of contents:

    Nordex - Share falls like a stone

    The shares of the northern German wind turbine manufacturer are clearly suffering. Although the Company should "actually" be one of the beneficiaries of the energy turnaround, the share price speaks a different language. In the last few days, the share has sunk below EUR 9 and has thus fallen by a third from its high in the spring of 2021.

    The Group's market capitalization is currently around EUR 1.4 billion. The analyst community bravely sticks to its buy recommendations, even if the price targets have been cut. On average, the experts believe that the shares have an upside potential of 73% over the next 12 months. Purposeful optimism? The last profit achieved by the North Germans was in the 2017 financial year, which stood at just EUR 0.3 million.

    The current fiscal year will also be coloured red. The Company has been pointing this out for some time. With the recently published Q1 figures, Nordex has put butter on the fish, which did not go down well with investors. The loss increased by almost EUR 100 million in the first three months to around EUR 151 million. The operating result (EBITDA) before realignment costs was EUR -52 million, compared with EUR +10 million in the previous year. Nordex cited the costs of realigning rotor blade production, lower installation output and increased raw material and logistics costs as reasons for the poor performance.

    "The start to 2022 has been difficult and has certainly gone differently than everyone expected," CEO José Luis Blanco commented on the quarterly figures. He added that there were still "significant supply chain disruptions." Nevertheless, the group leader maintained his medium-term forecast with an operating margin of 8%. For 2022, the wind turbine manufacturer assumes -4 to 0% for this key figure. Given the very weak start to the year, investors would be better off looking at the lower end of the target ranges. Even if a small profit could be generated operationally in the next fiscal year, Nordex will not post a profit until 2024 at the earliest - this is what the analyst consensus suggests.

    Thus, there are currently few aspects on the horizon as to why the stock should end its downward trend soon. The challenging framework conditions were recently joined by homemade problems. Due to a cyber security incident, the Group could not publish its figures on time and, as a result, has to leave the SDAX.

    Saturn Oil & Gas - A completely different league

    Under the leadership of CEO John Jeffrey, the Canadians have achieved extremely impressive growth over the past two years. The goal of becoming a leading publicly traded light oil producer and growing by acquiring and developing undervalued, low-risk projects has now been achieved with the latest acquisition, having already increased production by a factor of 20 with the Viking Assets acquisition last year.

    Saturn announced plans to now acquire additional assets in the Viking area of west-central Saskatchewan for approximately CAD 260 million. This will increase production per day at full capacity by more than half to around 11,400 boe/d. In addition, there will be synergy effects, which will reduce costs.

    To finance the transaction, the Company has already announced the closing of a CAD 75 million bought deal and a planned placement without broker participation of CAD 3 million. The placement price per share is CAD 2.75. In addition, buyers will receive one warrant per two shares with a subscription price of CAD 3.20 and a one-year term.

    Although the stock reacted negatively to the large pending dilution in the short term - the deal is expected to go through in early July - the acquisition makes a lot of sense from a strategic perspective. The big picture with high oil and gas prices and a resulting significant profitability is right. The analysts at GBC believe that the shares have the potential to multiply. The experts at also rate the stock as offering good opportunities.

    Shell - Favorite among the oil multinationals

    The recent slide in oil prices has also dragged down the share prices of oil multinationals such as Shell. Meanwhile, the shares of the British company are rising again, also spurred by positive analyst comments. RBS expert John Musk recently formulated a price target of just under EUR 35 for the stock, corresponding to an upside potential of around 40%. Moreover, according to Musk's rating, Shell is one of the favourites within the sector.

    High commodity prices boost profits in the sector and thus free cash flows. According to analyst estimates, the P/E ratio in this and the next fiscal year is 5 for Shell, and the P/B ratio will drop significantly from the current 1 in the next few years. The dividend yield is expected to rise above 4% in the future.

    In the short and medium-term, there is no way around established energy sources such as oil, gas and coal. Security of supply trumps dogma. Analysts thus recommend oil stocks such as Shell and Saturn for good reason. In the case of the Canadians, investors have the opportunity to profit from an upcoming revaluation. Nordex is an example of how not all companies in the "green energy" sector manage to operate profitably. Watching is better than investing here.

    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.

    For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.

    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

    Risk notice

    Apaton Finance GmbH offers editors, agencies and companies the opportunity to publish commentaries, interviews, summaries, news and the like on These contents are exclusively for the information of the readers and do not represent any call to action or recommendations, neither explicitly nor implicitly they are to be understood as an assurance of possible price developments. The contents do not replace individual expert investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell the discussed share(s) or other financial instruments, nor an invitation to buy or sell such.

    The content is expressly not a financial analysis, but a journalistic or advertising text. Readers or users who make investment decisions or carry out transactions on the basis of the information provided here do so entirely at their own risk. No contractual relationship is established between Apaton Finance GmbH and its readers or the users of its offers, as our information only refers to the company and not to the investment decision of the reader or user.

    The acquisition of financial instruments involves high risks, which can lead to the total loss of the invested capital. The information published by Apaton Finance GmbH and its authors is based on careful research. Nevertheless, no liability is assumed for financial losses or a content-related guarantee for the topicality, correctness, appropriateness and completeness of the content provided here. Please also note our Terms of use.

    Der Autor

    Carsten Mainitz

    The native Rhineland-Palatinate has been a passionate market participant for more than 25 years. After studying business administration in Mannheim, he worked as a journalist, in equity sales and many years in equity research.

    About the author

    Related comments:

    Commented by Nico Popp on February 1st, 2023 | 18:14 CET

    Scholz on lithium trip in South America - Who benefits? BYD, Saturn Oil + Gas, American Lithium

    • Mining
    • Oil
    • Lithium
    • Electromobility

    China has been active in South America for years and has put out feelers for raw materials. But first movers are not always rewarded. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has now been to Chile and made the country an extremely attractive offer. We take a detailed look at what it is all about and how investors can deal with the news.


    Commented by André Will-Laudien on January 31st, 2023 | 14:50 CET

    E-mobility 2023: The Tesla hunters are coming! BYD, Lucid Motors, Tocvan Ventures. Will the Varta share now also fly?

    • Mining
    • Gold
    • Electromobility
    • Investments

    It Is hard to believe! The Tesla share is once again making a name for itself. Analysts went into the presentation of the annual figures with cautious expectations because there were many negative rumors surrounding Elon Musk's electronics company: Fewer sales? Cars on stockpile? Again, it came as no one had expected it. Elon Musk delivered and simultaneously mocked all the shorties who wanted to push his stock below USD 100 at the turn of the year. This gambit went badly wrong because Tesla was able to deliver even better figures than expected, and there was no stopping the share. With plus 70% in only 4 weeks, the Tesla share belongs to the shooting stars since the turn of the year - the short sellers must have lost their desire completely. But the variety of interesting shares is significant. Where are the opportunities for e-investors lurking?


    Commented by Nico Popp on January 31st, 2023 | 14:33 CET

    This new project changes everything: Deutsche Bank, Aspermont, Alibaba

    • Digitization
    • Innovations
    • Technology
    • Investments

    When processes go digital, great opportunities arise: automation and scaling can ensure growth and turn established business models into high-flyers. But which companies should investors actively support in their transformation? Where is there real potential for investors, and where are companies just spreading buzzwords? We highlight three stocks for you.