Nel ASA, dynaCERT, Super Micro Computer – Portfolio realignment: What should be in the portfolio?

Nel ASA - Between growth and challenges

The Norwegian company Nel ASA is responding to growing competitive pressure with a clear growth strategy. New production facilities in Herøya (Norway) and Wallingford (US) were commissioned in 2024 and increased production capacity to 1.5 GW. At the same time, Nel is seeking to collaborate with experienced partners such as engineering services provider Saipem to offer scalable turnkey hydrogen solutions. These measures are designed to strengthen Nel's position in an increasingly competitive market and secure potential major contracts.

The road ahead remains challenging for Nel ASA. Order intake fell by 52% in the third quarter, fuelling speculation among analysts about a possible capital increase. Nevertheless, the Company is in a stronger financial position than the share price development suggests, with NOK 1.9 billion in the books. CEO Håkon Volldal is optimistic and emphasizes Nel's strategically favourable position to benefit from a long-term market upturn. With a focus on technical innovation and expanding partnerships, the Company sees itself well-positioned to emerge stronger from the current challenges.

Despite these difficult developments, Nel was able to increase sales by 21% to NOK 366 million in the third quarter. In particular, the alkaline department performed strongly, with a significant increase of 54%, while the PEM segment recorded a considerable decline of 40%. The performance of the Nel ASA share is currently disappointing. At NOK 3.039, the current price is around 10% above the year's low and has formed a double floor at NOK 2.89. However, overall profitability in the current year remains clearly negative at around -55%. The coming year will determine how Nel ASA will fare.

dynaCERT – Efficiency gains through innovative hydrogen technology

Over two decades, the Canadian company dynaCERT has established itself as an innovator in the green tech sector. Its HydraGEN™ technology offers a solution for optimizing combustion engines by feeding low-emission hydrogen and oxygen into the combustion chamber. This process improves combustion, reduces fuel consumption and significantly reduces pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and particulate matter. The compact system, which is about the size of a desktop computer, is easy to install and can be adapted to a range of applications, such as lorries or agricultural vehicles, thanks to its modular design. Both the electrolysis technology and the software are protected by patents - the software documents savings and emissions data in detail.

A significant milestone for dynaCERT was the certification by Verra, a globally recognized institution for carbon certificates. The combination of HydraGEN™ hardware and the Company's proprietary HydraLytica software allows for the precise tracking of emissions savings and fuel reductions, enabling the generation of carbon credits that generate additional revenue not only for fleet operators but also for dynaCERT itself. Tests have shown that emissions such as nitrogen oxides can be reduced by up to 88%, hydrocarbons by 60%, and particulate matter by 55% – strengthening competitiveness and providing a strong argument for investors.

With its European expansion and increasing global presence, dynaCERT is focusing on future growth. Rising demand for sustainable technologies, repeat customer orders and entry into new markets, such as Europe, support the Company's goal of significantly increasing revenue and production. Carbon credits can generate long-term, recurring revenue. Given the combination of innovative technology, proven environmental benefits, and growing market potential, dynaCERT is positioned as a promising opportunity for long-term equity investors. The stock is currently trading at CAD 0.18 and offers upside potential if larger orders come in.

Super Micro Computer – Rapid growth and sudden crash

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) saw an extraordinary share price increase of over 300% in 2024, driven by strong demand for AI-optimized server solutions and its close collaboration with Nvidia. The Company's innovations include liquid cooling technology, which saves energy and space. In March, the share price reached an all-time high before reports of accounting manipulation and the resignation of long-standing auditor Ernst & Young caused the price to plummet. Although an independent investigation found no irregularities, investor confidence remains fragile.

In addition to the allegations, Super Micro is facing further complications: the late submission of the annual report jeopardizes the NASDAQ listing, and the Company has already been removed from the NASDAQ-100. Institutional investors then increased the selling pressure. Furthermore, the US Department of Justice is investigating possible violations of the law. Super Micro is considering capital measures such as private equity investments to ensure financial stability. These could burden existing shareholders through dilution. Since the all-time high, the stock has lost about 70% of its value, increasing uncertainty surrounding the Company's future.

Despite the current problems, Super Micro's market position remains promising. The Company expects impressive revenue growth of almost 70% by 2025, driven by rising demand for AI and cloud computing and partnerships such as the one with Nvidia. To comply with regulatory requirements, a new auditor has been appointed, and measures to increase transparency have been enforced. Analysts have mixed views on the stock: while the low price-to-earnings ratio is considered attractive, others warn of the speculative nature. SMCI remains a potentially profitable but high-risk investment. The stock can currently be bought for USD 31.59.

At the end of the year, investors review their portfolios and adjust strategies to new trends. Nel ASA is pursuing its growth strategy through production expansion and partnerships, but is struggling with a decline in new orders and low profitability. dynaCERT focuses on efficiency and environmental protection with its innovative HydraGEN™ technology, while carbon credits promise additional growth. Super Micro Computer recorded strong growth in 2024, driven by high demand for AI server solutions. However, it is under pressure due to loss of confidence and market uncertainties, but remains promising due to AI trends.