The strategic positioning of Plug Power, dynaCERT, and Nel ASA in the USD 110 billion market

Plug Power – The balance sheet is stabilizing, but there is still a long way to go

Plug Power has put an end to its acute liquidity crisis for the time being. By halving its operating cash burn, increasing its capital, and planning asset sales, the Company has bought itself an important respite. The immediate existential threat has thus been averted. However, even in the best-case scenario, the financial breathing room will only last for about two years. The pressure to finally stop the underlying operating losses, therefore, remains high. The narrative has changed from a permanent financial cliff to a company that is doing its homework.

The latest announcements underscore international growth in the electrolyser business. Projects such as Africa's first fully integrated green hydrogen plant in Namibia and the cooperation with Hy2gen in France demonstrate global demand. Even an initial supply contract with NASA for liquid hydrogen has been signed. These successes in new markets are positive, but they do not solve the core problem. The electrolyser division alone cannot currently bear the high corporate losses. The targeted break-even point in the fuel business in mid-2026 is actually the decisive milestone.

The Company's valuation already reflects much of the stabilization that has occurred and the hope for further progress. The price-to-sales ratio is high for a company with gross margins that are still deep in the red. While the latest project wins demonstrate executive capabilities and expand the addressable market, they do little to change the fundamental calculation. The margin must come from the core business. Until then, the risk outweighs the reward. The stock still needs to take the final step before it can be bought with a clear conscience. The stock is currently available for USD 2.20.

dynaCERT – A pragmatic approach to the hydrogen sector

While the world is focused on electrification, a Canadian cleantech company is pursuing an alternative path. Instead of replacing the entire vehicle fleet, it is focusing on optimizing existing combustion engines. The technology uses compact onboard electrolysis to produce a hydrogen-oxygen mixture from distilled water. This gas is fed into the engine and improves combustion efficiency. The approach directly addresses the huge global fleet of commercial diesel engines. The Company recently secured fresh capital through a CAD 2 million convertible bond. These funds are earmarked for global sales expansion and working capital, signaling investor confidence in the chosen growth path.

The portfolio is scalable for various engine classes, from medium-duty trucks and buses to large engines used in mining and power generators. The focus is deliberately on commercial applications with long operating times, where the investment quickly pays for itself through fuel savings. A key safety advantage is that the hydrogen produced is consumed immediately and is not stored. Integration into existing vehicles is relatively simple and can be done within a few hours. The latest financing underscores the intention to now also drive this scalability forward operationally in order to move from pilot projects to series installation with large fleet operators.

Beyond the hardware itself, the Company is developing its own telematics software that measures and verifies the fuel and emission reductions achieved in real time. This verified data forms the basis for potential additional business, and the method for generating tradable carbon credits has been certified by Verra. This could open up a recurring source of revenue with high margins in the future and further increase profitability for customers. The fresh financial resources now give the Company additional leeway to drive forward this long-term strategic pillar alongside hardware distribution and to complete the complex certification process. The stock was recently under significant pressure due to window dressing and is currently trading at CAD 0.08.

Nel ASA – How technological progress is realigning the business

After seven years of development work, Nel has made the final investment decision to build a new gigawatt factory. The reason for this is the market readiness of a new pressurized alkali electrolysis platform, the prototype of which was recently successfully tested. The technology promises a significant leap in economic efficiency, as it reduces both investment costs and energy consumption. Commercialization is planned for 2026, with the first scaled deliveries starting in 2027. A modular, containerized design will also simplify project implementation.

At the same time, there are increasing signs of concrete market demand. Nel has been selected as a technology partner for two Enova-funded projects by developer GreenH, which together comprise at least 20 MW. In addition, the Company secured a firm order for 40 MW of containerized PEM systems from the Kaupanes and HyFuel projects, the second-largest single order in the Company's history. These projects, scheduled to come online in 2028, show that despite general delays in the industry, concrete, large-volume projects are moving forward.

The scaling of the new platform is supported by substantial EU funding of up to EUR 135 million. This covers a large part of the industrialization costs for a planned total capacity of 4 GW. The first expansion stage of 1 GW at the Herøya site requires investments of around NOK 300 million before funding. This financial support significantly reduces the entrepreneurial risk and underscores the strategic importance of the technology for the European hydrogen ramp-up. Currently, one share costs EUR 0.192.

The hydrogen economy will reach its long-awaited commercialization point in 2025. Plug Power has alleviated its acute financial crisis through capital measures, but must quickly stop the underlying operating losses. dynaCERT is pursuing a pragmatic niche approach with hydrogen-based efficiency technology for diesel fleets and is driving scaling forward. Nel ASA is positioning itself as a key technology supplier for the upcoming ramp-up phase with a new, cost-reducing electrolysis platform and significant EU funding.