NATO under pressure! Almonty target price rises! RENK not a favorite at Goldman Sachs! DroneShield hits milestone!

Almonty Industries: Analysts expect profits to skyrocket

Almonty is not only one of the few Western tungsten producers - in just a few weeks, the Company is set to become the largest supplier of this critical metal outside China and Russia. Due to its indispensability in defense, aerospace, and technology, governments and companies have been lining up at Almonty for months. Almonty CEO Lewis Black has already announced that production from the Sangdong mine in South Korea, scheduled to open shortly, will largely be shipped to the US. The Company's headquarters are also currently being relocated there. In addition, the acquisition of a US tungsten project has recently been brought into play. The significance is striking: the US is currently 100% dependent on imports.

With the Sangdong mine coming online, Almonty is facing a turning point. The latest study by Briley Securities shows how strongly revenues and profits will rise in the coming years. Due to the rising price of tungsten – up 21% since July alone – the price target for Almonty shares has been raised from USD 6 to USD 7. Analysts expect revenue of USD 105 million in the coming year. This is likely to rise to USD 267 million in 2027 and USD 375 million by 2028. EBITDA is expected to skyrocket during this period from USD 42 million in 2026 to USD 249 million in 2028. Earnings per share are expected to be USD 0.99 in 2028. Interestingly, their estimates are actually based on a falling tungsten price. The analysts do not explain why they assume this. In any case, the estimates appear to have room for improvement.

Analysts also point out that the US government is currently in talks about setting up a USD 5 billion mining investment fund. This could significantly expand the financing of critical minerals. Following the example of MP Materials, it is not unlikely that the US government could also take a stake in Almonty. The relocation of the headquarters, the supply of the US defense industry, and the possible establishment of US tungsten production are certainly an exciting mix that would fit perfectly with the US government's investment profile.

Important date: On October 8, 2025, Almonty CEO Lewis Black will present at the 16th International Investment Forum, IIF. Private and institutional investors can register here to participate free of charge. Many exciting German and international small and mid-caps will be presenting.

RENK: Rheinmetall with a better product portfolio?

RENK shares have already anticipated much of the hoped-for supercycle in the defense industry this year. The share price gain in 2025 is an impressive 270%. By comparison, BAE Systems has gained "only" 63%. The British group is currently Goldman Sachs' favorite among European defense companies. Overall, Europe is facing the largest rearmament cycle since the beginning of the Cold War. Goldman Sachs is correspondingly optimistic about the defense sector. However, investors should be selective in view of the high valuations. In their view, Rheinmetall's product portfolio is best suited to Europe's existing defense deficits.

Meanwhile, RENK is rated "Neutral" in the initial study. Analysts attest that RENK has an exceptionally strong position as a European supplier in the field of land systems. Its participation in military programs such as Lynx, Leopard 2, Puma, and the Panzerhaubitze 2000 provides planning security. Management's revenue forecast of EUR 2 billion for 2028 is therefore realistic. The analysts' estimates even exceed the consensus slightly. Nevertheless, this was not enough for a "Buy" recommendation, as their fair value for RENK shares of EUR 70 is only slightly above the current price level.

DroneShield: Major orders in the pipeline?

After things had quietened down somewhat in the summer with regard to drone defense, the discovery of Russian drones has brought the issue back onto the agenda. This should benefit specialist DroneShield. The Australian company has just celebrated a milestone: more than 4,000 handheld drone defense systems have now been sold worldwide. The mark was broken by two new orders worth a total of USD 7.9 million. The orders were once again placed by the US Department of Defense. Delivery is scheduled to take place before the end of this year.

DroneShield's handheld solutions form a cornerstone of its comprehensive anti-drone portfolio, which includes solutions for use on foot, on vehicles, and at fixed locations, where multiple sensors and effectors are connected by DroneShield's advanced software. Together, they provide a multi-layered defense architecture that enables operators to quickly and accurately detect, track, identify, and engage enemy drones. Customers who have signed up for SaaS-based AI software updates receive new firmware quarterly via the Company's secure portal.

DroneShield CEO Oleg Vornik stated: "As our customers move from initial small test purchases to full-scale procurements, we are seeing rapidly increasing customer demand. Drone defense is still in its infancy, and customers will need to make substantial additional purchases to reach the required level of protection. DroneShield is a globally recognized industry leader, and we expect to continue to benefit from this growing trend." If this statement proves true, DroneShield could secure major follow-on orders in the coming months.

The fact that RENK specializes in gearboxes is both a blessing and a curse. The order books are full, but when it comes to ammunition, drones, aircraft, and the navy, the Company is left out in the cold. Tungsten, by contrast, is indispensable across multiple industries - and Almonty is on track to becoming a systemically important supplier. Considering the outlook and analyst projections, the stock still looks undervalued at current levels. DroneShield, meanwhile, is certainly not cheap, but after its recent consolidation, the high-flyer appears to be ripe for a price increase again.