04. February 2021 | 09:10 CET
Kleos Space, OHB, Airbus, Boeing - SpaceX, into orbit with Elon Musk!
Elon Musk might be the most dazzling Wall Street figure of the last 2 years next to Jeff Bezos. His talents are visions with which he regularly reinvents himself. Whether it is a battery that is supposed to last millions of kilometers or simply the possibility for wealthy individuals to travel into orbit with SpaceX - all this and also the most famous electric vehicle in the world, "Tesla" originate from his imagination. The development of the share price of Tesla itself is fantastic. It achieved a return of 450% in 12 months, calculated from the low in March 2020, the value has increased tenfold. The latest rumor comes from the Chinese press and talks about upcoming cooperation with the Chinese car manufacturer BYD, in which Warren Buffet also holds shares. Here is where the circle closes again.
time to read: 5 minutes by André Will-Laudien
Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.
Kleos Space SA - Sensitive data from space via SpaceX
When people think of Big Data and satellites, they immediately think of espionage or US homeland security. There are currently around 2,800 satellites orbiting the globe, most of which come from the US, pretty much 50% or 1,425 to be exact, followed by China with 382 and Russia with 172. It is precisely these countries that we count among the geopolitical power poles on the planet today. They also afford the largest budgets for armaments and security.
Kleos Space SA is a private Luxembourg high technology Company that operates 4 satellites in orbit, but so far in the civil sector. The business approach is to provide highly sensitive data for paying customers, the core of which is to generate revenue on a subscription basis from the delivery of important data to government and commercial institutions. The vast majority of the data collected is used to detect unauthorized maritime activity, e.g., fishing in foreign waters or pirate movements that are otherwise difficult to detect, including crime detection in drug, weapons and human smuggling. Of course, this also involves defense and national security. Kleos also performs an essential service in terms of general security with its predominantly optical reconnaissance work.
The Company is interesting in many ways. There's Elon Musk with his Internet from space called "Starlink," which is already in beta testing. His platform for the future is the space company SpaceX; it has put more than 400 satellites into orbit, with plans for a whopping 40,000 over the next 20 years. Kleos will launch more satellites into orbit with SpaceX, the collaboration is already sealed and the launch date is June 2021.
Kleos raised AUD 19 million in November and is currently investing huge sums, with the first 4 satellites installed. On January 29, Kleos provided an update on progress made since the rocket launch of the Scouting Mission (KSM1), its first four-satellite cluster. Satellite commissioning, which will culminate with the positioning of KSM1 in its final operational orbit and formation, is well underway.
Kleos stock is still relatively unknown in Germany. With a capitalization of just under AUD 100 million, closer collaboration would be a no-brainer for Elon's SpaceX, for example, in the area of highly sensitive data. So before Elon brings up the word Space again, one should secure a few pieces at EUR 0.39. The analyst firm First Berlin has raised its price target several times to currently AUD 1.15 (link to the report), which would be the equivalent of about EUR 0.74 - so there is a doubling potential!
OHB SE - First to miss out on the Galileo project
In terms of German satellite technology, OHB SE has been a well-known player for many years as a Europe-wide technology and space company. Formed in 2002 through the merger of OHB-System AG and OHB Teledata AG, the Company serves international customers with solutions and systems. Its portfolio comprises solutions for the entire value chain of satellite development, construction and operation, data transmission and processing, as well as the development and construction of scientific payloads and aerospace structures.
OHB has also positioned itself as a key supplier in the aerospace sector and is one of the largest German suppliers to the Ariane 5 program. OHB is undoubtedly a competitor to SpaceX, but for research in the service of humanity, they will also cooperate at one point or another. Although years of experience in the construction of the European navigation satellite, Bremen-based space technology Company OHB has been knocked out of the tender for the new generation of Galileo satellites.
OHB stock did not react well to the failure to win the contract and took an initial dive from its high of around EUR 50. The chart should now hold at EUR 40, otherwise, trouble threatens.
Airbus SE - How deep is the aviation crisis?
Airbus SE was able to recover superbly after the sell-off in March 2020. Hopes for an imminent stabilization of aviation were quite quickly transformed into future revenue hopes. However, we are not yet that far in the pandemic. It is safe to assume that global air traffic will have to live with severe restrictions and requirements for another 2-3 years. For an aviation and defense group, this is not good news.
After reaching an interim target at EUR 95, the share price had almost doubled since March 2020, but now the market is thinking a bit more cautiously. In recent days, pressure also arose after various analysts again relativized the outlook. On the revenue side, Airbus SE is said to have posted an average of EUR 18.1 billion in the past quarter. That would correspond to a 25.5% drop in revenue compared with the previous year's result. At that time, Airbus had been able to turn over EUR 24.3 billion.
Overall, 22 analysts expect average earnings of EUR 0.57 per share for the currently ended fiscal year, compared to EUR 5.81 per share in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. The chart is now somewhat battered. If the figures and especially the outlook should disappoint, there is still some room to the downside. Wait and see!
Boeing Co. - Things are still not going so smoothly!
Similarly, things are not running smoothly at the resurrected Boeing, which is now having to deal with delays again after its Dreamliner problems. Boeing's successful 737 Max model was taken out of service in March 2019 after two crashes with 346 fatalities in Indonesia and Ethiopia. For Boeing, this meant the biggest crisis in the Company's history. Problems with the control system were considered the cause of the accident. Boeing had made extensive software updates, and pilots had to be retrained on them. Recently, the aircraft market had regained some confidence.
However, the US aircraft manufacturer Boeing must fear for more than a third of its orders for its 777X wide-body jet because of the renewed delays in development. On Monday, the group put its order backlog at just 191 aircraft of the type, 38% fewer than the number listed on the group's website. Because the model's first delivery is delayed until late 2023, some customers may cancel their orders.
Boeing shares have stabilized considerably in the last 6 months, reaching prices of just under USD 200 again - the crisis low at the time was around USD 100. At that time, capitalization had consequently shrunk to around USD 50 billion. Analysts are already estimating profits of almost USD 10 billion for the current year. From today's perspective, we consider this somewhat exaggerated in an aviation sector shaken by the pandemic. It is, therefore, possible that we have already seen the high in the share again. Caution!