August 4th, 2025 | 07:00 CEST
Is this the buying opportunity of the year? Amazon, Bank of America, Almonty Industries
Correction and comeback – on the stock market, this sequence is not always guaranteed. Sometimes a correction is also just the beginning of the end. This is especially true when business models lack substance and visions for the future burst like soap bubbles. However, corrections are often followed by spectacular comebacks that propel stocks into entirely new realms. We show that even stock market veterans like Amazon and Bank of America have tested the nerves of shareholders in the past, and draw parallels with the recent developments at tungsten producer Almonty Industries. Here, too, there are many indications that, in retrospect, the past few days are nothing more than a minor blip on the chart. History has shown that, ultimately, the facts are what truly matter.
time to read: 6 minutes
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Author:
Nico Popp
ISIN:
ALMONTY INDUSTRIES INC. | CA0203987072 , BANK AMERICA DL 0_01 | US0605051046 , AMAZON.COM INC. DL-_01 | US0231351067
Table of contents:
"[...] China's dominance is one of the reasons why we are so heavily involved in the tungsten market. Here, around 85% of production is in Chinese hands. [...]" Dr. Thomas Gutschlag, CEO, Deutsche Rohstoff AG
Author
Nico Popp
At home in Southern Germany, the passionate stock exchange expert has been accompanying the capital markets for about twenty years. With a soft spot for smaller companies, he is constantly on the lookout for exciting investment stories.
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In 2000, the market believed Amazon would go bankrupt – We all know how that ended
"A shady operation!" "A shaky business model!" "A hyped-up stock that will never turn a profit!" At the beginning of the 2000s, the dot-com bubble burst and even Amazon was caught in the downward spiral. Would customers really be willing to order books, CDs, and possibly even other items online? The market had its doubts at the time and sent Amazon's stock from USD 100 to below USD 10 between 1997 and 2000. And today? Adjusted for splits and other capital measures, Amazon reached an all-time high of USD 3,700 in February of this year.** Those who bought at under USD 10 saw their investment increase by a factor of 370, with USD 1,000 turning into USD 370,000.
In 2000, the market valued all e-commerce companies equally – the bubble had burst. However, investors ignored the fact that Amazon was only in its early stages. Even back then, it was obvious that Amazon would gradually want to offer more products in its online shop. Its market share in books and CDs grew steadily. Years later, the Company even entered the streaming market, leveraging its market power in e-commerce – anyone who wanted to save on shipping costs and receive fast deliveries in the future had to become a Prime customer and received Amazon's streaming service for free. Back when Prime was rolled out between 2005 and 2007, the advantages of streaming were not yet apparent, customers were not yet ready and preferred to go to the video store. Thanks to Prime's combination offer, Amazon reached customers nonetheless. And today? Prime is one of Amazon's strongest brands.
Bank of America: Initially bailed out at the expense of shareholders, now an investor favorite
The Bank of America has also seen some dark weeks in its share price history: During the financial crisis, its share price plummeted from USD 50 to around USD 3. Write-downs and state aid sent the share price down. Long-standing shareholders had to take a hefty hit at the time as a result of capital measures. Since the funds were only used to plug holes in the balance sheet, there was no vision for the future. And today? Bank of America is considered one of the most profitable major banks in the US. Its return on equity and return on total assets are above industry average, and loan defaults are low. The bank has also become a leading provider of banking technology, with innovative mobile banking apps and AI-powered customer service, among other things. These strengths are paying off: In the second quarter of 2025, Bank of America increased its profit to USD 7.1 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations. The share price is around USD 47.** The horror weeks of the financial crisis? Long forgotten!
Almonty Industries: Massive Sangdong mine secures tungsten supply for the West
The recent decline in the share price of tungsten producer Almonty Industries came not long after its successful listing and capital raise on the US stock exchange Nasdaq. The share price entered a consolidation phase and is now trading below the issue price of the new shares - a price at which institutional investors acquired a stake in Almonty in mid-July. The capital increase brought USD 90 million into Almonty's coffers and is intended to finance the planned processing plant at the Sangdong mine. The Sangdong mine itself is scheduled to go into production in the coming months. It represents the only tungsten project in the West that can break the dependence on China, North Korea, and Russia for this critical metal. From 2027, Sangdong alone could account for around 40% of the tungsten supply outside China. The processing plant, financed just two weeks ago, will allow the Company to unlock even more value from the mine** – since processed tungsten commands significantly higher prices. Unlike the capital measures implemented by companies like Bank of America during the financial crisis, Almonty stands to benefit significantly from the issuance of new shares.
Projects, unique knowledge, long-term strategy: Almonty does it like Amazon
In any case, the situation Almonty currently finds itself in is rather comparable to Amazon's situation at the turn of the millennium. The team led by CEO Lewis Black is aware of the potential of the business model and knows about the unparalleled starting position. In addition to the unique Sangdong mine, Almonty has also been operating the Panasqueira mine in Portugal for years and is financing a research laboratory for tungsten. Panasqueira has been producing for more than a hundred years, and some miners have knowledge that has been passed down for generations. It is important to note that the extraction and processing of tungsten is considered extremely demanding – those who do not know how to do it will never make a good business out of this heavy metal, which is indispensable for armaments and high-tech applications.
The hard numbers speak for themselves: according to Lewis Black's conservatively calculated feasibility study, Sangdong's production costs are estimated at just USD 110 to USD 120 per MTU – no mine in the world produces at such a low cost. In comparison, the production costs of state-owned Chinese tungsten mines are between USD 205 and USD 245 per MTU. One key reason for this, apart from the less favorable geology, is that the Chinese companies, which have been subsidized for many years, have never learned to mine efficiently under real market conditions. Almonty, on the other hand, is working with its experienced staff to further reduce costs and continuously optimize processes. The processing plant, which recently attracted investment from recognized industry professionals, is expected to open up additional potential.
Will Almonty become the US's tungsten supplier? Parallels with MP Materials
Since there are no tungsten companies comparable to Almonty anywhere in the world, the US government has already put out feelers to Almonty – among other things, the US Congress sent a letter to the Company emphasizing its strategic relevance for the US. Just a few weeks ago, the US Department of Defense and Apple invested in MP Materials, a company comparable to Almonty but focused on extracting critical rare earths. The share price has since doubled from an already high level. MP Materials is now worth more than USD 10 billion. Almonty, by comparison, has a valuation of around one-tenth of that.
After weeks of volatility, which is nothing unusual following comparable capital measures, Almonty shareholders and all interested parties on the sidelines must now ask: What is next for the stock? Will Almonty leverage its knowledge and market position the way Amazon did some 25 years ago, or will it fade into obscurity like many dot-com companies of the time? And what about the industrial customers who have already signed off-take agreements with Almonty, featuring minimum prices but no caps? Are we to believe they do not understand the business? The uniqueness of the Sangdong project, the lack of competition, including high barriers to market entry, the team's expertise, and the long-term strategic vision of Lewis Black, who founded Almonty back in 2011, are convincing arguments in favor of the Amazon scenario. Right now, investors still have the opportunity to buy in at a lower price than the Wall Street pros, who paid USD 4.50 for the new shares around two weeks ago.
You can watch the interview with Lyndsay Malchuk and Lewis Black, which also covers MP Materials here.
Conflict of interest
Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") currently hold or hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies and speculate on their price developments. In this respect, they intend to sell or acquire shares or other financial instruments of the companies (hereinafter each referred to as a "Transaction"). Transactions may thereby influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.
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