June 28th, 2022 | 16:10 CEST
Hydrogen once again: Nel, Plug Power, dynaCERT - Shares for the next climate rally
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"[...] We can convert buses and trucks to be completely climate neutral. In doing so, we take a modular and incremental approach. That means we can work with all current vehicle types and respond to new technology and innovation [...]" Dirk Graszt, CEO, Clean Logistics SE
Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.
Plug Power - The outlook for 2025 is positive
Politicians around the globe would like to see decarbonized mobility. Unfortunately, the approaches taken so far in e-mobility are not suitable for replacing internal combustion engines entirely. It also needs to be considered whether one would even want to afford a further efficiency level in energy consumption. In contrast to internal combustion engines, the electricity for electric vehicles must first be generated 100% from green sources in order to save CO2. Globally speaking, however, the alternative share of the energy mix is currently only around 25%, while for oil & gas, it is still a high 62%.
The US hydrogen specialist Plug Power is nevertheless optimistic that it can play a leading role in the industry. The group's sales are expected to rise to over USD 3 billion by 2025. A gross margin of 30% is expected, and an operating margin of 17% should still be achievable. Plug Power would like to break even in terms of material usage as early as in the current year 2022; if all expenses, in particular research and development, are included in the calculation, a positive EBIT should at least be reportable in 2024.
Acting CEO Andy Marsh sees himself in a good position to supply the existing budgets of the states accordingly with innovations around hydrogen. "The faster we move to renewable energy and hydrogen, the faster Europe and the world will be more independent," Marsh said, referring to rising commodity prices and sometimes strained supply chains. The stock has now corrected several times in the recent NASDAQ sell-off and is now at the critical EUR 15 mark. The price-to-sales ratio is now a lower 12, which used to stand at around 40 during the hydrogen hype of 2021. This is what it looks like when the air slowly escapes from the balloon. The low from May at EUR 12.33 already has the chart-technical quality for a downward stop. Still highly speculative!
dynaCERT - Soon to be seen live at the "IAA Commercial Vehicles" trade fair
One company that is already successfully using H2 technology is dynaCERT. As one of the technological pioneers, the Company has addressed the advantages of hydrogen technology at a very early stage and now has a level of awareness and market access in North America. Joe Biden had promised more funding for GreenTech at one of his last addresses to Congress.
Canada is also backing net-zero technologies. In the future, there will be additional tax credits of 30% for projects that at least zero out additional carbon production or substitute worse systems. Clean technologies for combustion, battery storage and green hydrogen are in demand. dynaCERT is still waiting for the label for its technology from the international certification body VERRA. The VCS-VERRA program is the world's most widely used voluntary greenhouse gas program. More than 1,800 certified VCS projects have collectively reduced or removed more than 928 million metric tons of carbon and other GHG emissions from the atmosphere.
dynaCERT is one of the companies that can stand ready with handy solutions for an H2-induced climate pact. The willingness of the private sector to invest is also essential here; this creates new jobs and serves as an important economic stimulus measure in the impending crisis. The stage is set for a broad presentation of technical solutions for the truck sector at the upcoming IAA for commercial vehicles in September. Certification should take place before then.
The DYA share is currently trading between CAD 0.10 and 0.14. All outstanding warrants with a subscription price of CAD 1.00 have recently expired. Fully diluted, the market cap has fallen to about CAD 50 million, in line with the valuation before the H2 hype in 2018. Feel free to put the stock back on your watchlist. News from VERRA could be the spark.
Nel ASA - Subsidiary Everfuel builds first hydrogen hub
Little news has been read recently from Norwegian H2 specialist Nel ASA. Nel relies on public contracts to make green hydrogen a blockbuster. How, when and ultimately where the biggest investments in new technologies will be made depends primarily on the financial capacity of the states because the whole issue, similar to e-mobility, will only succeed with large subsidies.
The order flow for Nel's Everfuel investment, on the other hand, is looking quite good. The construction of a long-announced "Hydrogen Hub" in Norway is moving forward because the hydrogen filling station network has finally found a new backer. Everfuel and the energy company Greenstat will receive a public grant of NOK 148 million, or about EUR 14.2 million, from the state-owned company Enova. The Norwegian government wants to support the two companies in the development of their joint venture, the "Hydrogen Hub Agder". Everfuel and Greenstat signed the corresponding cooperation agreement in July last year. According to the published announcement, there are already some letters of intent from third parties to purchase green hydrogen from the hub once it becomes ready for occupancy.
Nel's stock fluctuates a lot with the trends on NASDAQ because it is one of the growth stocks. Interest rates also play a significant role in refinancing projects. The share fights its way up again and again but ultimately remains in the EUR 1.05 - 1.35 corridor. Those who can use this positively have good cards and corresponding nerves. The next figures will be available at the beginning of August. Keep watch until then!
The hydrogen sector has good chances in the international competition for climate-neutral energy production. However, the current valuation cycles have not yet advanced into a sufficiently favorable zone, so the risks remain high. We have prepared you for this for a long time. The Canadian dynaCERT is waiting for the stamp of the VERRA certification body.
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