Glencore, Aspermont, and Barrick Mining – Golden prospects

Glencore – Between a failed mega-deal and a strategic asset sale

The Swiss-based company is one of the world's largest commodity groups, combining a strong trading business with mining operations in strategic metals such as copper, cobalt, and zinc, which are gaining in importance in the wake of the energy transition and geopolitical realignment.

The recently discussed combination between Glencore and Rio Tinto had significant potential, but talks ultimately failed. A key sticking point was the exchange ratio. Glencore was aiming for a stake of around 40% of the combined company, which Rio was unable to justify to its own shareholders. In addition, governance issues played a role, as Rio Tinto wanted to retain both the chairman and CEO positions without paying a corresponding price.

The breakdown abruptly ended the consolidation fantasy, and under British takeover law, a renewed attempt is off the table for at least six months. Operationally, the merger would have opened up a new dimension, especially in the copper sector, but the differences proved insurmountable.

At the same time, Glencore is focusing on targeted portfolio management and has signed a non-binding letter of intent with the Orion Critical Mineral Consortium, which provides for the possible sale of 40% of the mining assets, Mutanda Mining and Kamoto Copper Company. The valuation is around USD 9 billion. Glencore would remain the operator, while Orion would receive co-determination rights and marketing access. The transaction also aligns with US strategic interests in securing supply chains for critical minerals from the Democratic Republic of Congo, the world's most important producer of cobalt and a key copper location.

Aspermont – From publisher to data powerhouse

Aspermont has quietly but consistently reinvented itself in recent years. A traditional specialist publisher with over 190 years of history has evolved into a data-driven technology company providing specialized intelligence solutions for the global commodities, energy, and agricultural industries.

At the heart of this transformation is a unique, fully digitized archive of historical industry data, which is linked to current market information. This has resulted in a scalable SaaS platform with predictable, recurring revenues, which now accounts for the majority of group revenue and has delivered consistent growth over several years.

With the AI-based Mining IQ analysis platform launched in 2025, Aspermont is taking this model to the next level. The solution enables in-depth analysis of project pipelines, geopolitical risks, and investment flows, thereby addressing the growing complexity of commodity markets. Market readiness was underscored by a high-profile contract with Rio Tinto, for which Aspermont is developing a customized AI-powered search and analytics platform.

In addition to data & intelligence, Aspermont operates digital trade media with a reach of millions, delivers integrated marketing solutions for governments and corporations, and hosts high-profile industry events - together forming a self-reinforcing ecosystem. This interaction makes Aspermont less dependent on economic cycles and positions the company as a strategic infrastructure provider for decision-making processes in an increasingly politicized commodity environment.

The planned reverse stock split could now send an important signal to the capital market. At the annual general meeting in February 2026, a reverse split at a ratio of 250:1 is to be decided. In purely mathematical terms, this will not change the market capitalization or the economic value, but it will change the perception of the stock. A significantly higher optical listing would end the penny stock image, improve tradability, and, for the first time, make the stock structurally investable for institutional investors.

Barrick Mining – Solid figures

After a volatile trading week, the gold price made an impressive comeback and pushed back above USD 4,900 at the end of the week. After briefly reaching levels above USD 5,000 in the middle of the week, the setback caused nervousness. However, Friday's strong performance puts the precious metal back on track. The USD 5,000 zone remains the key trigger, while the support areas between USD 4,500 and USD 4,300 should not be breached.

Amid this nervous market environment, Barrick Mining delivered convincing figures, kicking off the reporting season in the gold sector. The Canadian gold and copper giant presented robust figures for the fourth quarter of 2025. Revenue jumped to USD 5.997 billion in Q4 2025, up 45% from USD 4.148 billion in Q3 2025. Profit rose to USD 2.406 billion, from USD 1.302 billion in the prior quarter. Free cash flow also developed positively, rising to USD 1.619 billion.

The copper business was the main driver of this development. Copper production increased by 13% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, while gold production rose by 5%. Barrick is thus benefiting twice from the current environment of structurally high gold demand and increasing excess demand for copper for the energy transition and infrastructure.

For 2026, management expects gold production of between 2.90 and 3.25 million ounces, following 3.26 million ounces in 2025. Copper production is expected to be between 190,000 and 220,000 tons.

The mega-deal between Glencore and Rio Tinto has fallen through, at least for the time being. Aspermont is planning a reverse split, making it more attractive to institutional investors. Barrick has delivered solid figures.