The Iran War is driving the war economy – Almonty Industries, Rheinmetall, and the RENK Group under scrutiny

Almonty Industries – Consistently expanding its foundation

The past few months have marked a fundamental change for Canadian tungsten producer Almonty Industries. After years of preparation, the company completed the transition from development to active mining at its Sangdong mine in South Korea in December 2025. The first ore delivery to the processing plant heralded the final phase before commercial production. This brings one of the largest tungsten deposits outside China closer to the market. At the same time, Almonty secured a foothold in North America with the complete takeover of a project in Montana. The company is thus building a platform that will connect production in Asia, Europe, and the US.

The timing could hardly be more favorable. China, which controls more than four-fifths of global production, has recently tightened its export rules significantly. The US, for its part, will exclude Chinese tungsten from defense procurement starting in 2027. The metal is on the list of critical raw materials in nearly all Western industrialized nations because of its hardness, its role in high-tech applications, and its lack of substitutability. The consequences of this situation are evident on the market. Prices for the important benchmark ammonium paratungstate (APT) have more than quintupled within a year. This opens a window for producers outside China that could extend far beyond a normal cycle.

With the ramp-up in South Korea, Almonty aims to increase its production volume significantly in the coming years. The first expansion phase envisages an annual capacity of the equivalent of around 230,000 MTU of tungsten, with a second stage set to double this volume by 2027. At the same time, the company is pushing ahead with the expansion of its Panasqueira mine in Portugal and is positioning a molybdenum project at the Sangdong site. Molybdenum is also used in defense and industry and could form a second source of revenue. Recent capital market transactions in the US have strengthened the balance sheet and created financial leeway for upcoming investments. Analysts have raised their price targets across the board due to high prices. Bank of America sees a price target of USD 20, GBC Research USD 20.89. The share is currently trading at USD 20.72.

Rheinmetall – Undergoing strategic change

The recent acquisition of Lürssen's marine division marks a decisive turning point for the Düsseldorf-based technology group. With the completion of the transaction in early March, Rheinmetall is breaking new ground. In the future, the company aims to play an important role not only on land but also at sea. Four shipyards in northern Germany with a long tradition have changed hands. This is clear evidence of the company's ambition to evolve from a pure component supplier into a cross-domain systems provider. The strategic logic behind it is obvious: anyone who wants to build frigates and corvettes needs more than tank expertise. And this deal closes precisely that gap.

But things are going well not only strategically, but also operationally. Several major orders in recent weeks show how broadly Rheinmetall is now positioned. These include the Swedish naval order for eight Seasnake weapon systems, the extensive package for the Luchs 2 reconnaissance vehicle with a volume in the mid three-digit million range, and the delivery of five field hospitals to Denmark. Added to this is the green light for ammunition production in Sardinia. The mix is right. While classic land systems continue to boom, maritime components and medical technology are gaining in importance. Demand is picking up in all segments, and Rheinmetall is investing heavily in new capacity.

The key question for the current year is whether the market's high expectations can be met. Analysts anticipate a jump in revenue to EUR 15-16 billion, of which around EUR 1.5 billion is expected to come from the newly acquired NVL. The operating margin is expected to remain at a high level. Technological development is running parallel to this. At the Enforce Tac trade fair, the group recently presented new solutions for drone defense and networked combat operations. However, the biggest challenge remains the integration of the shipyards. This is a complex undertaking that will determine the success or failure of the company's maritime ambitions. The share is currently trading at EUR 1,625.50.

RENK Group – Between record orders and strategic change

The RENK Group closed the 2025 financial year with a strong final quarter, confirming its own forecasts. The Vehicle & Mobility Systems (VMS) segment in particular drove growth, fueled by continued high demand for drives for tracked vehicles. Order intake remained at record levels, even though some major international orders were postponed until the first half of 2026. In the US alone, the subsidiary RENK America exceeded the USD 500 million threshold, a clear signal of its strong position in this core market. The total order backlog reached a historic high of EUR 6.4 billion, securing capacity utilization for years to come.

The company is investing heavily in expanding its capacities, especially in the US. Together with Governor Gretchen Whitmer, RENK announced an investment of USD 150 million in Michigan, spread across facilities and research and development. By 2030, 270 new jobs are to be created there. At the same time, production in Augsburg is running at full speed following the switch to modular manufacturing. In the long term, the group is aiming for revenue of around EUR 3 billion by 2030. Organic growth is to be supplemented by targeted acquisitions in order to reduce dependence on the defense sector.

Management is confident about 2026. In the largest segment, VMS, 90% of orders for the year have already been booked, a record figure. The biggest unknown remains the Israel business, for which RENK is planning revenue of around EUR 80 million but is dependent on export licenses. Customs duties and exchange rates could also slow things down. Nevertheless, the opportunities outweigh the risks. Demand in Europe and the US remains high, and the long-term programs of NATO partners promise further growth. The detailed forecast for 2026 is expected on March 5. The share price is currently trading at EUR 58.51.

The war in Iran shows once again that the war economy is becoming a structural growth engine. Almonty Industries is consistently exploiting the shortage of raw materials and, with Sangdong, is bringing the largest tungsten project outside China into production just in time for the price peak. Rheinmetall is completing its strategically astute transformation into a maritime systems provider and consolidating its position as Europe's leading defense contractor. The RENK Group, in turn, shines with operational excellence, record orders, and massive investments in US capacities. For investors, all three positions offer a long-term commitment to the indispensable pillars of the new security architecture.