From the valley of tears to hypergrowth? Nel ASA, dynaCERT, and Plug Power in the crosshairs

Nel ASA – Setbacks and hopes for the future

Nel ASA, a Norwegian pioneer in hydrogen technology, presented disappointing figures for the first quarter of 2025. Net revenue fell by 44% to NOK 155 million, well below analysts' expectations of NOK 245 million. Even more serious is the operating loss. EBITDA was negative at NOK 115 million, following a positive figure of NOK 32 million in the previous year. The net loss rose to NOK 179 million. This was due to production interruptions in the alkaline division and a decline in project completions. Despite these figures, management emphasizes the Company's solid liquidity of NOK 2.1 billion.

Nel ASA's difficulties are also reflected in its order book, which fell by 31% year-on-year to NOK 1,460 million. A major blow was the cancellation of a large 40 MW order by Statkraft, which reduced the order book by an additional NOK 120 million. Analysts such as Erwan Kerouredan of RBC see less geopolitical risk and more of a problem in the tense European market environment. Competition from better-capitalized players such as thyssenkrupp nucera is intensifying the pressure. The only ray of hope is the partnership with Samsung, which is seen as a vote of confidence.

CEO Håkon Volldal remains optimistic and points to long-term opportunities from the global hydrogen boom. In addition, cost reductions, for example through production breaks in Herøya, should stabilize margins. The PEM division showed potential with 64% growth. However, the short-term hurdles are high. The alkaline division slumped by 69%, and recovery depends on regulatory conditions. For investors, Nel remains a risky player in a volatile future market. The share price currently stands at NOK 2.304.

dynaCERT – Cleantech innovation on the rise

Legal requirements for emissions are becoming stricter worldwide, leading to a growing demand for practical retrofit systems, particularly in the transport sector. This is exactly where the Canadian company dynaCERT comes in with its HydraGEN™ technology. The patented process improves the combustion efficiency of diesel engines by controlling the fuel-air mixture and adding hydrogen as needed. Practical tests show that this significantly reduces both diesel consumption and emissions. A decisive step was taken in 2024 with the recognition of the CO2 savings methodology by Verra, paving the way for the generation of emission certificates. This combination of hardware and data-driven HydraLytica™ software not only offers environmental benefits but also creates a scalable bridging technology for industries with high diesel demand.

In fiscal year 2024, dynaCERT tripled its revenue to CAD 1.6 million, a clear sign of growing market acceptance. Although scaling in new regions such as Europe was initially cautious, strategic patience is paying off. Existing regulatory approvals and the establishment of local teams are paving the way for sustainable growth. Project-based sales, typical for the industrial sector, are developing dynamically, supported by follow-up orders from key sectors such as mining and energy. At the same time, successful financing rounds underscore investors' confidence in the commercialization roadmap.

Starting in 2026, the monetization of CO2 certificates could significantly improve margins. In parallel, dynaCERT is expanding the application range of HydraGEN™ technology from heavy-duty vehicles to stationary diesel generators. Industries such as logistics and energy production offer potential, especially against the backdrop of rising CO2 prices in the EU. Collaborations with the European workshop network Alltrucks and a presence at leading trade fairs strengthen the Company's market reach. dynaCERT addresses a growing need for pragmatic climate protection solutions without a radical technology change. The share is currently trading at CAD 0.155.

Plug Power - Strengthens financing and partnerships

Plug Power has agreed a secured credit facility of USD 525 million with Yorkville Advisors to stabilize its liquidity. An initial tranche of USD 210 million has already been disbursed, of which USD 82.5 million will be used to repay a convertible loan. This move reduces potential dilution for shareholders and eliminates associated share issuances. CEO Andy Marsh emphasizes that the funds will drive the scaling of the green hydrogen network and support profitability targets. At the same time, net cash outflow in the first quarter fell to USD 142 million, a 47% decrease compared to the previous year. With USD 296 million in cash at the end of March plus the credit facility, the Company considers itself well-positioned for medium-term expansion.

A key factor is the commissioning of the 15-ton-per-day hydrogen liquefaction plant in Louisiana, operated by the Hidrogenii joint venture with Olin. The plant increases Plug Power's total capacity to 40 tons per day and supplies major customers such as Amazon and Walmart. At the same time, the Company is pushing ahead with efficiency programs. Structural adjustments and optimized supply chains are expected to save over USD 200 million annually from 2025 onwards. These measures, combined with rising revenue expectations of USD 130–134 million for the first quarter, highlight the focus on higher-margin growth.

In addition to operational progress, Plug Power has announced a cooperation with BASF. The chemical company will supply catalysts (Pd15 DeOxo) and oxygen and water removal solutions for hydrogen liquefaction plants. The focus is on plants with a daily capacity of 30, 60, and 90 tons. This is a clear signal of the Company's scaling ambitions. Integrating these technologies could help Plug further reduce production costs and position itself as a technology leader. The stock is currently trading at USD 0.86 and must break through the USD 1 mark in order to remain on the NASDAQ in the long term.

The hydrogen industry is caught between the drive for innovation and the pressure to scale up. Nel ASA is struggling with operational setbacks and declining revenues, but is focusing on long-term opportunities through partnerships such as Samsung. dynaCERT is scoring points as a cleantech bridge builder. A tripling of revenue and certification for CO2 credits underscore the market acceptance of its HydraGEN™ technology for diesel engines. Plug Power is stabilizing its finances with a USD 525 million credit line and is pushing ahead with the scaling of large-scale projects through cooperations such as BASF. While Nel and Plug are struggling with financial difficulties, dynaCERT demonstrates how pragmatic solutions can accelerate decarbonization. The race toward mass adoption is on.