Fact check: After the correction comes the next rally! Ups and downs for Almonty, Aixtron, and Deutsche Pfandbriefbank

Almonty Industries – Collective punishment in the correction

Some investors will say that is quite something! Both the rally and the subsequent downward spiral have already left their mark on investors' nerves. In mid-October, the stock market was concerned about an escalation between the US administration and China. Especially for the critical metals and rare earths sector, scarcity prices were paid that had not been seen on the price board for years. A few days later, tensions eased when Donald Trump announced a "China deal." Soybeans for rare metals was the headline of this peculiar agreement. Ordinary market participants can no longer make sense of such developments; in the end, it is up to lawyers to deal with the lip service of the international political stage, no matter how absurdly these agreements are negotiated.

Almonty Industries has various trends to deal with. Rarity applies to tungsten and molybdenum, as does the super-strategic positioning in the international race for highly lucrative supply contracts in the defense and AI industries. Wherever tungsten is needed, potential customers are knocking on the door and willing to sign long-term supply contracts. When Europe fell into an energy hole in 2022/23, Qatar was also on hand and, with Robert Habeck as Minister for Economic Affairs, was able to conclude a dream deal for LNG supplies over 10 years at five times the regular price. These are scarcity prices for certain days and hours when panic is at its peak, and the deal is signed.

Almonty Industries announced at the beginning of the week the start of an extensive drilling program at the Panasqueira mine in Portugal to prepare for the expansion to the new "Level 4" production level and to increase annual production volume and mine life. A total of approximately 14,000 meters of drilling with three drill rigs is planned within twelve months, with an investment volume of around EUR 2.5 million. The aim is to update the resource model, calculate new suspected mineralization, and carry out strategic production planning based on the expected exploration results. The program builds on previous exploration campaigns that have already identified mineralized veins. With this initiative, Almonty is underscoring its position as a leading Western supplier of conflict-free tungsten, a strategic raw material for defense and high-tech, for which demand continues to rise amid geopolitical tensions. The stock has now corrected significantly from its peak and is currently trading at a highly attractive valuation. Oppenheimer Research announced a price target of USD 12 in November, and AII shares are currently trading at around USD 6.05. Seize the opportunity!

Aixtron and SMCI – The magic word is AI data centers

Anyone wanting to shine in the tech rally of recent months needs to anchor something like "supplier of technical equipment for AI data centers" in their business model. This applies to both Aixtron and Super Micro Computer (SMCI), which are considered leading suppliers of infrastructure for modern AI data centers. Aixtron provides equipment for the production of laser and power electronics components made from gallium nitride and silicon carbide - essential components for ultra-fast data communication, energy-efficient converters, and optical networks – all key technologies for AI clusters and hyperscale data centers. Super Micro Computer, meanwhile, is seen as an innovation leader in server platforms for AI workloads. Its modular systems enable efficient integration of high-end GPUs required for large language models and generative AI applications. Together, both companies address key bottlenecks in the AI stack: delivering best-in-class performance per watt, optimized cooling and connectivity, and flexible scalability across a wide range of AI and edge computing applications.

Aixtron has just reported its figures, and analysts are enthusiastic. After nine months, the Company has achieved revenue of EUR 369.5 million, which is slightly below the previous year's figure but already somewhat better than feared. Free cash flow surprised positively at EUR 110.3 million, and the gross margin in the third quarter was even back up to a solid 39%. Despite a downward revision of its forecast, Aixtron currently sees itself as well-positioned thanks to the G10 AsP platform, successfully delivered SiC systems, and momentum from the solar, ROY LED, and micro LED markets. On the LSEG platform, 7 out of 19 analysts recommend buying, with a 2027 P/E ratio of 18.2. SMCI had gained a good 120% in recent months, but fell out of favor with its Q3 report. The share price plummeted from USD 58 to USD 42, but the 2027 P/E ratio is now only 13.7. The same applies to both stocks: buy on weakness!

Deutsche Pfandbriefbank – Significant price weakness even before the figures were released

Sharp price swings in connection with analyst conferences are not uncommon. At the beginning of the week, Deutsche Pfandbriefbank's share price fell 20% from EUR 5 to EUR 4. In terms of market value, this represents a decline of around EUR 150 million. The bank's bonds also dipped briefly but have since recovered. However, there is still no sign of stabilization for the stock even in the middle of the week. It all revolves around an analyst meeting. The bank was quick to deny that there had been a preliminary call with analysts regarding the quarterly figures scheduled for November 13. However, the Company then backtracked and admitted that there had indeed been contact with analysts last week. During these preliminary discussions, it may well be that the bank engaged in expectation management with certain market participants regarding the figures. Whatever happened, investors are clearly not expecting anything good on November 13. Interested parties should make a note of the date!

The stock market is currently taking no prisoners. Weak figures are triggering ad hoc losses of 20 to 30%, as seen recently with SMCI. Aixtron is in the midst of a technical breakout, and a similar move could be on the horizon for Almonty Industries if the USD 6.00 level holds. At Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, a poorly performing commercial real estate market in Germany appears to be having a negative impact.