Exploding commodity prices meet NASDAQ hysteria! Nordex, European Lithium, Siemens Energy, and Standard Lithium in focus

European Lithium – Recipes for the looming critical metal emergency

It took a long time, but European Lithium's program has now been announced for several months and is finding its valuation ratios. It is about securing Western industries with scarce and rare metals. The Australian company is positioning itself in a rapidly changing raw materials environment as a broadly diversified supplier of critical metals, with Greenland playing a key role due to its growing geopolitical importance. At the same time, there are some land rights in Ukraine that could come back into focus after successful peace negotiations. Alongside this, the Wolfsberg project in Austria remains a central component of the European battery value chain. As Europe's first fully approved lithium mine, it is set to supply BMW from 2027, thereby contributing to the diversification of the German automotive industry's dependencies. With the addition of the Leinster project in Ireland, European Lithium is further expanding its strategic raw material reach within the EU.

There is no doubt that the Arctic island of Greenland is increasingly becoming the focus of Western industrial policy due to its enormous resource base of rare earths and strategic metals. The Tanbreez project, held through the US subsidiary Critical Metals Corp. (just over 50% stake), is considered one of the world's most significant deposits of heavy rare earths outside Asia. Current drilling campaigns confirm exceptionally consistent HREO and gallium grades, while low uranium and thorium values significantly favor approval. Despite all the tough political negotiations, the economic attractiveness is increasing almost daily, as model calculations show a net present value of up to USD 3 billion and an internal rate of return in the triple-digit percentage range.

As the majority shareholder of Critical Metals, European Lithium benefits directly from this value dynamic, as its stake in NASDAQ-listed CRML currently has a calculated value that significantly exceeds European Lithium's market capitalization. Strategic partial sales of CRML shares also generated over AUD 180 million for the Company, increasing the group's cash reserves to around AUD 325 million. This capital base not only enables project progress, but also a generous share buyback program to reduce the valuation discrepancy. European Lithium's share price has been on a sustained upward trend for a year, benefiting from increased attention in the German-speaking D-A-CH region. With a current market capitalization of around EUR 168 million, the medium-term appreciation is far from over! Collect!

CEO Tony Sage provides a strategic update in an interview with IIF correspondent Lyndsay Malchuk.

https://youtu.be/4LsysG1g0xo

Standard Lithium – Back on track?

Standard Lithium is also one of the great hopes of the US supply chain for critical metals. The Company is currently focusing on three main areas: progressing toward completion of the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) for the South West Arkansas (SWA) project, raising USD 130 million in capital to finance the construction of the plant, and developing new lithium sulfide products for solid-state batteries. Losses also rose in Q3 due to expansion investments, most recently to USD 6.1 million. Nevertheless, as of September 30, 2025, there was still around USD 30 million in the coffers, and now the proceeds from the capital increase will be added to this. Technologically, an innovative solution for the future of batteries is currently being advanced with the new method for converting lithium hydroxide into lithium sulfide, particularly in collaboration with partner Telescope Innovations. Standard Lithium plans to start production at the SWA project in 2028 and is one of the few players to deliver a tangible start to production. The stock experienced a sharp rally of 500% over nine months, rising from EUR 0.90 to EUR 5.40, before pulling back to EUR 3.45 following the capital raise at EUR 4.35. With a market capitalization of roughly EUR 680 million, Standard Lithium is no longer particularly cheap!

Nordex and Siemens Energy – Far beyond the horizon

Nordex and Siemens Energy were able to leverage their GreenTech aura fully in 2025. Both stocks adorn the CDAX universe's leaderboards, with gains of 115% and 111%, respectively, over the last 12 months. But what happens next? Good advice seems to be hard to come by, as both stocks have benefited greatly from the megatrend of the energy transition. Analysts meet on the LSEG platform to review the companies' fundamental data. For Nordex, they arrive at a revenue estimate for 2025/26 of EUR 7.5 billion and EUR 8.3 billion, respectively, with an EBITDA margin estimated at around 7%. Nordex itself has set a medium-term margin target of 8%. That does not leave much room for upward movement, which has prompted 7 out of 16 analysts to put the brakes on. Overall, the average price target is only EUR 27.60, but that still represents a potential return of just under 8%. The same calculation applies to Siemens Energy: 10% estimated revenue growth in 2026 with a current P/E ratio of 30 for 2025/26. Some firms find this a little ambitious. The median price target has fallen from EUR 122 to EUR 115.7 in the last four weeks. It is questionable how long profits can still be taken calmly, as the technical peak between EUR 102 and EUR 116 has now lasted a good six weeks. Exit at the right time or set stops at EUR 23.75 or EUR 99.50.

The capital markets are prone to sharp corrections. Over the summer, investors' portfolios accumulated significant gains. With the icing on the cake of the super bull market in October, there are now sell-offs at the end of the year. European Lithium and Critical Metals are also falling back somewhat, but once consolidation is complete, they could quickly head north again.