January 13th, 2022 | 14:13 CET
dynaCERT, Plug Power, Nikola - Will hydrogen be the comeback of 2022?
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"[...] We are committed to stay as the number one Canadian and global leader in the Hydrogen-On-Demand diesel technology [...]" Jim Payne, CEO, dynaCERT Inc.
dynaCERT - Is the hydrogen pioneer finally leaving the valley of tears?
Shareholders of dynaCERT need staying power. And nerves of steel. The dynaCERT technology, protected by numerous patents, has been in development for more than 17 years. Several independent studies have proved its effectiveness, but the large-scale roll-out is still a long time coming. Yet the potential is enormous: 2.3 million trucks are waiting to be converted to climate neutrality in Europe alone. A significant proportion will certainly be replaced by battery-electric or hydrogen-powered newer models, but the rest will have to be trimmed to climate neutrality utilizing climate certificates. And this is where dynaCERT comes in. With its hydrogen injection technology, dynaCERT can optimize the combustion of fossil fuels and document the resulting CO2 savings in a legally compliant manner using its proprietary HydraLytica solution.
As a result, logistics companies save hard cash because optimized combustion requires fewer CO2 certificates and thus results in lower costs. The savings exceed the costs of converting vehicles to dynaCERT technology many times over. And as the price of CO2 rises, the solution's efficiency will continue to increase. From this perspective, dynaCERT can watch the galloping CO2 allowance prices in peace, confident that sooner or later their technology will experience massive demand. In the meantime, the Company is taking care of getting the necessary certifications.
The Company, for example, has applied for carbon credit certification under the VCS program of Verra, a global leader in developing and managing standards for sustainable development and climate protection in the private sector, and has just recently received a progress report. So the next step is a VVB audit, i.e. an audit by independent experts. And there was another piece of good news that reached the shareholders of dynaCERT most recently: Sofina Foods, a Canadian food manufacturer, announced that it would increase its vehicle fleet, which has so far been equipped with four dynaCERT generators, by an additional twenty units. The downward trend of the share could be stopped for the time being by the positive newsflow. Currently, it even looks like a trend reversal. After all, the stock has gained around 14% since the beginning of the year.
Plug Power - Tense waiting for figures
Already, investors are eagerly anticipating January 19. On this day, Plug Power will publish its latest annual business update. In the meantime, a lot has happened. Citigroup recently lowered the price target for the shares of the American fuel cell specialist from USD 56 to USD 37. According to the experts, this means that the share price potential is "only" around 50%. Shareholders were initially not impressed by this and even sent the stock up initially. After all, the share was worth considerably more than the current price target a year ago and stood at a proud USD 73.19 on the day of last year's update. But the great disillusionment with hydrogen did not stop at the big players. After all, the Company secured almost USD 3 billion in the hype at the time with two capital increases and the entry of the Korean SK Group.
Now it remains to be seen whether Plug Power has put its money to good use. For example, in the Australian joint venture with Fortescue, which recently declared its intention to use Plug Power's PEM electrolyzer technology to convert a fertilizer plant from natural gas to hydrogen, thus benefiting from the lower raw material price on the one hand and government subsidies on the other. This pilot project could open many more doors for Plug Power technology worldwide.
The investment in the partnership with Edison Motors, a leading Korean manufacturer of electric cars, to develop a climate-neutral 125 kW city bus could also prove to be the right move. After all, the prototype is to be presented in the second half of the year and put into series production by 2023 at the latest. Shareholders will find out all this and much more on January 19. Then it will become clear whether the Plug Power share will once again succeed in a price rally like the last one in November 2021.
Nikola - Will the Company succeed in a turnaround while the ex-CEO is on trial?
Trevor Milton, ex-CEO of Nikola, is currently on trial in New York. He is accused of deceiving investors during his time at Nikola and thus obtaining investment money. After revelations made the rounds that Nikola did not master the technologies presented, the share price collapsed to USD 9. No one will have been more hurt by this than Milton himself, as he is, after all, the largest single shareholder in Nikola. And this is still the case despite sales worth around USD 300 million in recent months.
Meanwhile, Nikola has mastered these technologies and is well on its way to becoming a serious provider of sustainable mobility solutions. If the Company succeeds in convincing the capital market of this, the stock should leave its sideways movement in the not too distant future and start a positive price trend. After all, the potential for climate-neutral solutions for the logistics sector remains unbroken. Analysts recommend the stock with an average price potential of around 50%.
These are exciting times. The world and substantial areas of life and the economy are undergoing massive change. Hydrogen will be the energy carrier of the future. An investment in hydrogen should pay off in the long term. However, high volatility is still to be expected along the way. Plug Power is undoubtedly the top dog of the shares presented. Nikola remains a share for gamblers. At the current share price, the papers of the specialists from dynaCERT certainly offer the most interesting risk-reward ratio.
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