March 2nd, 2022 | 10:24 CET
Deutsche Bank, Raiffeisen International, wallstreet:online AG, flatexDEGIRO - Vladimir, here we go!
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Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.
Deutsche Bank and Raiffeisen International - Fully under the wheels
On February 10, Deutsche Bank's share price reached a 52-week high of EUR 14.64. Now one could say "turned on its heel!" - because just 3 weeks later, the share price is struggling with the EUR 10 mark, making a loss of an even 30%. The reason is obvious because the German industry leader has significant exposure in the East. The Board of Management has not yet made a public statement on the size of this exposure.
The fact is, of course, that European companies were also financed for their eastern business through the corporate customer division. This now leads to uncertainties, defaulting interest payments, and perhaps even to the insolvency of Russian subsidiaries or cooperation partners due to the disconnection from the SWIFT system. Sberbank Europa AG is on the verge of bankruptcy, and there are, of course, joint customers here as well. The bank's latest figures assumed rising interest rates and higher margins, which could turn the other way again as the crisis spreads.
The Austrian Raiffeisen International (RBI) is not faring any better. There are even rumors that a protective umbrella from the ECB could become necessary. The bank's shares, which are active in Ukraine and Russia, slumped by almost 15% to below EUR 13 at the beginning of the week. In the past three weeks, the securities had already fallen from EUR 28 to EUR 16. RBI makes almost half of its profit from its operations in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Gabriel Felbermayr, the head of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), had called at short notice for a protective umbrella to be stretched over RBI.
Both major banks currently have unassessable risks on their books. RBI is probably the most severely affected institution in Europe. From today's perspective, both stocks are no longer a sell, but no bets should be made on the distribution of dividends.
wallstreet:online - Very high turnover among neo-brokers
The wallstreet:online Group can look back on a steady development in 2021 because the activities in the Group are running smoothly. These days brokers have an advantage over commercial banks; they are merely an executive body for the virtual customer and do not have to provide crisis advice. On the other hand, trading systems are buzzing, with investors placing more orders than ever via various market access points. Anyone who can demonstrate a stable IT environment in the face of these high market volatilities is one of the winners. The "Smartbroker" subsidiary has now been integrated into the Group for some time. The Trading App is to be launched in the first half of 2022.
CEO Matthias Hach will report on the past year, 2021, in an online event on March 9. At the same time, he will venture a forecast for 2022 and present a brief overview of the strategic business planning for the coming years. Trade Republic's off-market EUR 4 billion valuation shows that the W:O share is a bargain at just under EUR 17. Because here, for a market capitalization of only EUR 267 million, you get an efficient and award-winning broker as well as four high-reach stock market portals with several hundred million page impressions per month. After the current crisis, the share price should therefore rise again quickly. Collect!
flatexDEGIRO - Good figures for 2021 and takeover rumors
A much larger competitor to Smartbroker is flatexDEGIRO Group. The former FinTech Group AG completed the purchase of Dutch online broker DEGIRO in December 2019. flatex planned to become the first and largest online broker in Europe with the acquisition, and it has succeeded so far. With the acquisition, the Company increased its number of customers to over one million in 2020.
The broker also looks back on a successful year. At the end of 2021, the number of flatexDEGIRO customer accounts was 2.06 million, an increase of 55% compared to the 1.33 million accounts of the previous year. With 91 million transactions, the Company also processed more transactions last year than any other European online broker. Client assets under management totaled EUR 43.9 billion at the end of 2021, up 38% in twelve months. Revenues increased by 60% to EUR 418 million from EUR 261 million in the previous year, and adjusted EBITDA also rose sharply from EUR 138 million to EUR 223 million, corresponding to a margin of 53.4%.
flatexDEGIRO has set itself ambitious targets for the coming years. By 2026, the number of customers in Europe should increase to between 7 and 8 million, it says. Because of these prospects, takeover rumors have been swirling around the Frankfurt-based Company for some time. If the experts at Goldman Sachs are to be believed, the share is correctly valued at a price of EUR 34, according to a renewed buy recommendation. That would put the market capitalization at EUR 3.7 billion and correspond to 14 times the wallstreet:online valuation. The share is currently trading at EUR 18.60, with a high of EUR 29.58 in 2021. Be on the lookout for new lows.
Highest volatility on the stock markets - with permanently negative news from Ukraine, investor appetite remains depressed. Banks are starting to falter because of their loan portfolios. However, the brokers are currently profiteers who supply the bare nerves of the investors with their advice-free services. wallstreet:online and flatexDEGIRO, therefore, have considerably more charm from a risk perspective than the badly battered credit institutions.
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