Defense out - Time to buy commodities! Hensoldt, Globex Mining, Barrick, Mutares, and Steyr

Hensoldt – Simply too expensive

Without beating around the bush, the only thing that can be said about yesterday's crash in Hensoldt shares is this: too expensive, and when the momentum slows, things will get tight. We warned of this scenario in several articles, and now the correction has begun. With a 2026 P/E ratio of 32 and a 3.5x revenue multiple, valuations are reaching the upper limits. Despite a good business situation and steadily improving financial figures, capacity expansion for new orders is progressing more slowly than many investors believe. Last week, the share price rose to EUR 75, before hitting the stop at EUR 69 this morning. Investors should position themselves for a new entry at EUR 48 to EUR 53. In the medium term, however, a good proportion of safety-related stocks continues to make sense.

Barrick Mining – Get in now

Yesterday's sell-off of commodity alternatives was also interesting. Barrick Mining, which is not highly valued, lost a full 3%, even though the mined metal has been selling at dream prices for several quarters now. The 3-year chart still shows a loss of 13%, even though gold has gained over 80% in the same period. According to analyst estimates on the LSEG platform, the number two gold producer will report net profits of over USD 3 billion in 2025 and is constantly buying back its own shares. The average 12-month price forecast by experts is USD 25.70. At USD 18.85, there is potential for a 37% gain. A bargain!

Globex Mining – A bag full of opportunities

In turbulent times, precious metals prove their worth in stabilizing portfolios. In addition, in the international context of metal shortages and the search for secure sources of supply, it is worth looking at Canada. In Quebec, Globex Mining's properties are coming into focus. The conditions there are important in the international race for favored locations: energy, good infrastructure, a mining-friendly jurisdiction, and good contacts with the indigenous owners of the land. CEO Jack Stoch currently has 256 projects under review, more than 50 of which have historical or current resource estimates in accordance with NI 43-101. In addition, Globex has readily liquidatable shares and cash of over CAD 30 million. The Company is completely debt-free. Investors can therefore rely on a conservative approach.

There are regular updates from the properties, most recently from Antimony Resources Corp., with an update on drilling at the Bald Hill property in New Brunswick. Under the option agreement, Antimony Resources must pay Globex CAD 2 million in cash and 1.1 million shares. This is linked to investments of at least CAD 5 million over a period of four years to acquire a 100% interest in the property. Globex will continue to receive a 3.5% gross metal royalty when production commences. Antimony Resources reported that the 2,500-meter, 20-hole program commenced on April 15, 2025, and intersected antimony mineralization with core lengths of up to 20 meters in 5 of 6 drill holes. The investigations are expected to be completed within four weeks. The final results will then be available. Exciting!

After peak prices of approximately CAD 1.60 in 2025 and a 12-month performance of 100%, the GMX share is currently consolidating somewhat. This offers interested parties a new entry opportunity, as the prospects are unique. With 56.3 million shares issued, the market value of all properties, after deducting cash and free shares, is approximately EUR 27.5 million. This is a perfect setup for the next round of appreciation when the gold price picks up speed again. The chart illustrates the current situation.

Mutares and Steyr Motors – Hand in hand toward normality

Mutares and Steyr Motors have recently been in high demand due to the investment frenzy in arms and defense stocks. Mutares timed its IPO of its stake in Steyr Motors AG perfectly in the fall of 2024. With prices above EUR 375, the Austrian company even briefly reached a market value of over EUR 2 billion in April. Two weeks later, the share price fell to below EUR 35, representing a loss of 90% for latecomers. Now everything has returned to normal. Steyr Motors, with a share price around EUR 50, is valued at approximately EUR 270 million, which, according to analyst estimates, corresponds to a 2.5x revenue multiple for 2027. The increased liquidity in the share price opens up further opportunities for the parent company, Mutares, to reduce its stake.

At last week's Annual General Meeting, Steyr announced a dividend of EUR 0.55. With an order backlog of around EUR 200 million spread over several years, the Austrian company considers itself to be in an excellent position. CEO Julian Cassutti emphasized: "We are entering a phase of strong growth and sustainable profitability in our company's development. Major orders from military and civilian customers worldwide ensure high capacity utilization and provide a stable foundation for further growth." The share price reacted rather sluggishly after the AGM, falling from EUR 57 to EUR 49. At the current level, we see further consolidation as necessary in the short term.

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The stock market is currently extremely volatile. What was still valid yesterday can quickly collapse again due to statements by an unpredictable US president. Yesterday, short sellers had to cover quickly, as upcoming peace negotiations were taken as an opportunity to revalue significantly. In the short term, this is putting pressure on precious metals, as the price of gold has already risen by over 30% in 2025 alone. This development is making commodity stocks highly attractive again. However, profit-taking is likely to spread in the armaments and defense sectors.