Close menu




November 12th, 2024 | 07:15 CET

Commerzbank, Thunder Gold, Plug Power – What happens after the US election?

  • Mining
  • Gold
  • Banking
  • Investments
  • Hydrogen
Photo credits: pixabay.com

After Donald Trump's commanding victory in the US election, the financial world faces a new era of economic transformation. In the midst of this changing political landscape, the markets are clearly identifying winners and losers. If the first term is anything to go by, banks will experience a boom due to deregulation measures and tax incentives, while the renewable energy sector will face new challenges. The rally in the price of gold has been slowed for the time being by a stronger dollar. On the other hand, interest rates continue to fall, making gold investments more attractive again. The return of Trump's economic policy agenda promises not only opportunities but also risks for sustainable investments. We look at one candidate from each area.

time to read: 4 minutes | Author: Armin Schulz
ISIN: COMMERZBANK AG | DE000CBK1001 , THUNDER GOLD CORP | CA88605F1009 , PLUG POWER INC. DL-_01 | US72919P2020

Table of contents:


    Dennis Karp, Executive Chairman, Manuka Resources Limited
    "[...] We will trigger indirect creation of 1,665 new jobs nationwide, while directly employing 300 staff - 270 operational and 30 administrative. [...]" Dennis Karp, Executive Chairman, Manuka Resources Limited

    Full interview

     

    Commerzbank - US election and its impact

    The recent US elections put pressure on European bank stocks. In addition, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates again to support the economy and avert an impending recession. For the interest-sensitive Commerzbank, falling interest rates are not good news. However, the focus of attention is the possible takeover of Commerzbank by the Italian UniCredit. European regulators are signaling approval, while the German government as a shareholder is skeptical. UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel sees a one-year window for a decision on a possible acquisition of Commerzbank.

    On November 6, Commerzbank presented its quarterly figures and surprised on the upside. The Company reported a net profit of EUR 642 million, beating analysts' expectations. Revenues were around EUR 2.7 billion. By year-end, net interest income is expected to increase to EUR 8.2 billion, while net commission income is expected to improve by 5%. Nevertheless, a risk result of EUR -255 million weighed on the result, caused by larger individual cases and provisions for ESG risks. The cost-income ratio improved slightly to 58%, which keeps the bank on track to achieve its full-year targets.

    Commerzbank is optimistic about the coming years. The updated strategy until 2027 plans a return on equity of 12.3% and a reduction of the cost-income ratio to 54%. A share buyback program of EUR 600 million has been approved, and a further tranche of EUR 400 million has been applied for. Additional details on the strategy for the coming years are expected at the Capital Markets Day at the beginning of next year. The stock price recently fell to EUR 15.805.

    Thunder Gold - A rising star in the gold sky

    The latest gold rally took the gold price to just under USD 2,800, and even though the strong US dollar is putting a damper on the rally, gold explorers are coming back into focus. Thunder Gold has made significant progress in exploring the Tower Mountain property in recent years. Since acquiring the property in 2020, the Company's experts have identified a promising gold deposit located on the western side of the Tower Mountain Intrusive Complex. To date, 41,000 m have been drilled, representing a CAD 12 million investment. Initial estimates suggest a potential of 1.25 to 1.5 million ounces of gold, but the Company sees far greater potential around the entire intrusive complex.

    The Tower Mountain project offers a distinct advantage: excellent infrastructure. Its proximity to the city of Thunder Bay, a major port with direct access to the Trans-Canada Highway and a rail network, makes it possible to efficiently implement the mining of large tonnages of low-grade ore. This type of deposit is among the largest operating gold mines in the world because they are consistently productive despite their lower concentration of precious metals. The Company can rely on established infrastructure, which significantly reduces capital and operating costs.

    The recent discoveries of high-grade gold occurrences in the P-Zone are a testament to the abundance and diversity of the mine's potential. Rock samples returned gold grades from 0.75 g to 13.4 g. Further results are expected during November. The plans for extensive exploration aim to reveal the true potential of the deposit, as only a fraction of the property has been explored so far. If the resource estimate continues to increase, it is only a matter of time before larger gold producers arrive on the scene to secure the property. The stock is currently trading at CAD 0.04, giving it a market capitalization of just CAD 8.3 million. This is a bargain, considering the previous resource estimate.

    Plug Power – US election weighs on green tech sector

    The election of Donald Trump as US president has put pressure on the green tech sector, including companies such as Plug Power. Trump's pro-fossil-fuel policies could hamper the progress of renewable energies. In particular, Trump intends to withdraw from climate change policies such as the Paris Agreement, which reduces government incentives for renewable energy. In addition, tariffs on imports, including solar panels from China, increase production costs and could weaken the competitiveness of companies such as Plug Power, which specializes in green technologies.

    Plug Power has been struggling with declining revenues and losses in recent quarters. In the first half of 2024, the Company posted a negative operating cash flow of USD 422 million and a net loss of USD 558 million. Despite these challenges, the Company hopes for a turnaround in investor confidence. A potential positive impulse could be the final approval of a USD 1.66 billion loan by the Department of Energy to finance the expansion of hydrogen production facilities. These could help Plug Power to implement its plans without resorting to capital increases.

    The question is whether this approval will be granted after the change of president. This uncertainty sent the stock on a renewed downward slide. The high short interest ratio of 27.8% indicates a significant level of pessimism that could already be priced in. A possible turnaround in market sentiment, which could trigger a short squeeze, would be possible with the quarterly figures on November 12. However, this is not likely given that the Company has regularly disappointed investors in recent years. An investment is currently highly speculative. The stock can currently be bought for USD 2.06.


    After the US election under Trump, Commerzbank, Thunder Gold, and Plug Power face different challenges and opportunities. Commerzbank presented positive quarterly figures despite falling interest rates. At the same time, management is considering a possible takeover by UniCredit. Thunder Gold is profiting from the high price of gold, with exploration at Tower Mountain revealing great potential and strengthened by first-class infrastructure. Political developments in the US pose a threat to Plug Power. Nevertheless, the planned loan guarantee from the Department of Energy could provide new investment incentives, although this remains uncertain given the political instability.


    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.

    In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.

    For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.

    The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

    Risk notice

    Apaton Finance GmbH offers editors, agencies and companies the opportunity to publish commentaries, interviews, summaries, news and the like on news.financial. These contents are exclusively for the information of the readers and do not represent any call to action or recommendations, neither explicitly nor implicitly they are to be understood as an assurance of possible price developments. The contents do not replace individual expert investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell the discussed share(s) or other financial instruments, nor an invitation to buy or sell such.

    The content is expressly not a financial analysis, but a journalistic or advertising text. Readers or users who make investment decisions or carry out transactions on the basis of the information provided here do so entirely at their own risk. No contractual relationship is established between Apaton Finance GmbH and its readers or the users of its offers, as our information only refers to the company and not to the investment decision of the reader or user.

    The acquisition of financial instruments involves high risks, which can lead to the total loss of the invested capital. The information published by Apaton Finance GmbH and its authors is based on careful research. Nevertheless, no liability is assumed for financial losses or a content-related guarantee for the topicality, correctness, appropriateness and completeness of the content provided here. Please also note our Terms of use.


    Der Autor

    Armin Schulz

    Born in Mönchengladbach, he studied business administration in the Netherlands. In the course of his studies he came into contact with the stock exchange for the first time. He has more than 25 years of experience in stock market business.

    About the author



    Related comments:

    Commented by Fabian Lorenz on December 11th, 2024 | 07:45 CET

    New hydrogen hype in 2025? Nel ASA, thyssenkrupp nucera, Plug Power, and First Hydrogen

    • Hydrogen
    • greenhydrogen
    • renewableenergies

    Is nuclear-based hydrogen fueling a comeback for the industry? The growing energy demand for AI and other technologies is straining electricity grids. Shares of First Hydrogen have surged 17% following its announcement to venture into small nuclear reactors for hydrogen production, yet the Company is still valued at less than CAD 20 million. Nel is to build a pilot plant in South Korea to produce hydrogen from surplus nuclear power. However, the valuation of the Norwegian company still seems too high. Plug Power shareholders might face turbulent times in the coming weeks as short-sellers position themselves. By contrast, thyssenkrupp nucera is recommended as a "Buy". Which hydrogen player will take off in 2025?

    Read

    Commented by Armin Schulz on December 11th, 2024 | 07:30 CET

    Super Micro Computer, Power Nickel, Renk – Cash in on megatrends

    • Mining
    • Nickel
    • megatrend
    • Defense
    • chips
    • Technology

    Global megatrends such as artificial intelligence, raw materials for green technologies, and defense technologies are fundamentally changing markets and societies – and offering enormous opportunities for investors. Companies that address these trends early on can grow disproportionately in the long term and generate significant returns for their shareholders. These technologies are not only shaping the future but also driving the performance of tomorrow's stock market stars. We look at three companies that are benefiting from these megatrends.

    Read

    Commented by André Will-Laudien on December 11th, 2024 | 07:15 CET

    DAX 25,000 and gold at 3,500 next year? Position now with Lufthansa, TUI, Desert Gold, and Barrick Gold

    • Mining
    • Gold
    • Travel

    After an extensive stock rally in 2024, many investors are wondering what the New Year 2025 will bring in terms of investments. Hopes are resting, on the one hand, on the upcoming conservative government changes in the US and Germany. There is great confidence in a new supply-side industrial policy flanked by further interest rate reduction measures. Deregulation of bureaucracy and tax relief could usher in a new era of corporate profitability, especially in Germany. This might eventually lead to the return of foreign investments and job creation, replacing the red-green visions of a carbon-neutral 28-hour workweek with full pay. We provide some insights on where and how profits might flow again.

    Read