December 16th, 2021 | 14:09 CET
Clean Logistics, Plug Power, Nel, FuelCell Energy - 2022, let's go hydrogen!
Table of contents:
"[...] Why should a modular electrolyzer cost more than a motorcycle? [...]" Sebastian-Justus Schmidt, CEO and Founder, Enapter AG
Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.
Plug Power - External growth fuels imagination
Plug Power is not only the largest pure-play hydrogen company, but its growth is also much higher compared to the industry. That is because it is well capitalized, with over USD 1 billion coming into its coffers at the start of 2021 with the addition of Korea's SK Group. The Company can draw on this for a long time to come.
Takeovers are an important part of the corporate strategy of hydrogen specialist Plug Power. In this way, the Americans secure the know-how along the entire hydrogen value chain, which is still missing in parts and which the management around Andy Marsh wants to build up in the medium term. In December, an exciting deal was finalized, as Plug Power successfully completed the acquisition of the Frames Group. Frames Group is engaged in system integration for the energy sector, especially in turnkey electrolyzer solutions. This acquisition is a necessary competence build-up for Plug in the areas of engineering, process and system integration - this is intended to accelerate the provision of customer-oriented H2 technologies.
Plug Power shares recently rose quite dynamically from USD 25 to over USD 40. However, the strong correction in growth stocks led to a 25% correction to USD 30. Now it becomes exciting around the chart: The share must quickly resume its way toward the USD 40 mark; otherwise, a further crash threatens to the annual low of under USD 20. For this, however, the momentum and the MACD must first turn green. Wait and see!
Clean Logistics - The transport industry could set an example
A study by the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) with the title "Renewable energies in transport - potentials and development prospects of various renewable energy sources and energy consumption of the modes of transport" sets the following goal: With its energy concept and the phase-out of nuclear energy, the German government has set ambitious goals for the future energy supply. Implementing these goals is also referred to as the "energy turnaround" and represents a major long-term political, economic and social project for Germany. In this context, target achievement is measured primarily by the reduction of energy consumption and CO2 emissions and the share of renewable energies in energy consumption." Road freight transport in Germany is expected to increase by around 20% by 2030, so the BMVI study sees great potential for implementation in freight transport.
The current resolutions of the traffic light coalition stipulate that CO2 emissions must be reduced by almost half by 2030. Clean Logistics SE from Hamburg converts trucks and buses in public transport with diesel drive to vehicles with emission-free hydrogen drive. The concept of converting existing diesel trucks to so-called HyBatt trucks is explicitly promoted by the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI). In August 2021, a BMVI funding guideline was published with a budget of over EUR 1 billion for the procurement of zero-emission trucks. With a funding rate of up to 80% of the additional cost investment and the prospect of continuing using proven vehicles, explain the strong interest of freight forwarders and logistics companies in this environmentally friendly conversion. It makes sense because it is precisely in the case of 40-ton trucks that action must be taken. Although these vehicles account for only 7% of the truck fleet over 3.5 tons on Europe's roads, they are responsible for around 45% of the total emissions from freight transport.
In the course of its significant growth, Clean Logistics SE is strengthening its management with renowned experts from the field of vehicle technology. As of January 2022, three new Chief Officers (Operations, Technology and Business Development) will support the current management team led by CEO Dirk Graszt to further expand Clean Logistics' business activities. They are Tom George, Florian Brandau and Dr. Jörn Seebode. This reinforcement should significantly increase the operational power in the coming year.
The share price has been trading between EUR 7 and EUR 9 in the last 3 months and is currently at the lower end of this zone. With around 13.7 million shares, the Hamburg-based Company is presently valued at around EUR 98 million. Compared to many other stocks in the hydrogen sector, Clean Logistics has a very marketable technology that will find buyers if subsidized. Given the implementation of the EU climate targets, the share is very attractive in the medium term.
Nel ASA vs. FuelCell Energy - Where is the greater potential?
There are clear parallels in the technical analysis of the two hydrogen stocks Nel ASA and FuelCell Energy. Both stocks benefited from the buying spree in the first quarter of 2021, where they multiplied their valuations. Nel ASA rose a good 50% from EUR 2.3 to EUR 3.4, marking its preliminary high for the year. At FuelCell, the price exploded by 300%, from EUR 8 to EUR 24. At the peak, the shares were up by up to 2000% - we will probably not see such hype again in the near future.
At the beginning of 2021, there was a real "diversity of concepts" with which building blocks one could implement climate improvement as quickly as possible. Every Company that communicated just one idea to the market was 50% more expensive overnight. This rather dull mega-hype is probably finally over because all H2 stocks lost on average more than 60% from their top prices. For FuelCell Energy, it was 80%.
Put side by side, Nel ASA has about the same price-to-sales ratio of 25 as its peer group FuelCell Energy. However, the Company has more marketable products than FuelCell, and its sales are growing much more dynamically than those of the Americans. Both companies are expected to break even in 2024/25. From a chart perspective, the shares are in a narrow trading zone of EUR 1.5 to 2.0 and EUR 5 to 10, respectively. Currently, both stocks are at the lower edge of this range again. If loss values are adjusted at the end of the year, conciliatory entry prices could emerge. With emerging momentum in 2022, even a speculative positioning can make sense for a few weeks. A prerequisite would be taking courageous action at extremely weak prices. Lay in wait for Nel at EUR 1.35; FuelCell Energy should be available for a short time below EUR 5.
The hydrogen sector has had a great stock market year. Investors who continue to invest in this sector could be caught in a tax-induced selling vortex again at the end of the year. However, these special effects could be used to enter the market. Hamburg-based Clean Logistics has defined clear strategic goals, and if the Company's sales increase soon, the share price will also accelerate significantly.
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