Caution with TUI and Varta! Smartbroker Holding with 85% price potential!

Smartbroker Holding: 10x EBITDA?

The share of Smartbroker Holding AG is one of the high flyers of the current year on the German stock market. The group operates Smartbroker - a multi-award-winning online broker - and wide-reaching stock market portals. Since the turn of the year, the stock has gained almost 60%. And there is still more to come. Several analyst firms recommend buying the share. The most optimistic is GBC Research, with a target price of EUR 17.70. The analysts at Montega consider EUR 14 realistic - representing more than 50% upside potential. The analysts agree on the price trigger: the relaunch of the smart broker in mid-2023, which should attract new customers and open up new sources of revenue.

The management of Smartbroker confirmed at the investor conferences in Frankfurt and Munich in recent weeks that the app's release date can be met. The beta test is to take place in July, and then the official launch in August. There are high hopes associated with the new app. On the one hand, it is supposed to be the most modern, simple and intuitive broker app on the market. In addition, customers will also be able to trade new asset classes such as cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin & Co. By switching the background bank from BNP Paribas to Baader Bank, Smartbroker also taps into additional sources of revenue. They will participate in the interest income from "parking" customer balances at the ECB. All in all, this should lead to significant growth in turnover and earnings in the coming years. GBC Research expects sales of EUR 66.75 million as early as 2024 (2023: EUR 52.70 million). EBITDA is expected to increase more than tenfold from EUR 1.04 million in 2023 to EUR 13.97 million in 2024 and then climb again to EUR 20.68 million in 2025. The P/E ratio is expected to fall from 35.77 in 2024 to 15.18 in 2025. (to the research report: https://irpages2.eqs.com/download/companies/wallstreetonline/ResearchDownloads/SBH_AG_GBC_Update_27032023_DE.pdf)

Varta: SdK with horror scenario

Varta shareholders can only dream of such growth prospects at the moment. The battery pioneer is struggling with an eroding core business and liquidity problems. Yesterday, the share lost more than 9% of its value and is now trading below EUR 17. From Goldman Sachs' point of view, the price is still too much. Yesterday, the analysts halved the price target from EUR 30 to EUR 15. The recommendation was adjusted from "Neutral" to "Sell". The former German battery hopeful is struggling with overcapacities in its core business with lithium-ion button cells. Therefore, it is far from ruled out that the Company could miss its own forecasts. The Schutzgemeinschaft der Kapitalanleger (SdK) is even more critical about the prospects. In a YouTube video, Varta was critically examined, and numerous problems were highlighted. In addition to the issues in the core business already mentioned, these would be, for example, the massive share sales by the major shareholder. The recent capital increase was also a drop in the ocean. The negative cash flow in the first quarter already exceeded the inflow of funds from the capital increase. Insolvency and, thus, a total loss for shareholders cannot be ruled out (Youtube article https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waYDCzxcURs).

TUI: A buy at EUR 6?

Like Varta, the TUI share is one of the most popular German shares and, at the same time, one of the problem children. After the past month's crash, many investors ask themselves: is the TUI share not a bargain at EUR 6? After all, prices for holiday trips are shooting up in the summer season that is now beginning. And the TUI share stood at EUR 20 just a few months ago. Nevertheless, at least analysts remain skeptical. For Bernstein Research, TUI is currently a "market perform". The price target is 590 pence and thus somewhat at the current price level. Jefferies is much more critical. Following the quarterly figures, the analysts continue to rate the TUI share as "Underperform". The price target is EUR 2.10. This means that the share could almost fall by three times again. Looking ahead to the summer, the analysts are quite optimistic about the operating performance of the travel group. However, the liquidity in the group is still a risk that should not be underestimated.

With TUI and Varta, one can only advise against catching a falling knife. While a countermove is always possible and may be of interest to speculators, both companies need to address their liquidity issues. The Smartbroker share seems more attractive. It is in an upward trend, the problems with the development of the new app seem to have been solved, and significant jumps in turnover and earnings are expected in the coming years.