Blockbuster or takeover fever? Why Novo Nordisk, Defence Therapeutics, and Pfizer are now attracting attention

Novo Nordisk – Reasons for long-term confidence

Novo Nordisk is solidifying its dominant position in the global growth markets of diabetes and obesity. With GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy, the Company controls over half of the weight management market and generated over 60% of its 2024 revenue. Demand remains exceptionally strong. The global market for obesity treatments could grow by over 20% annually through 2030. At the same time, Novo Nordisk benefits from stable diabetes demand, supported by a 33% market share. This combination of established strength and structural growth lays the foundation for sustainable earnings.

The Company is investing heavily in new capacity to solve production bottlenecks and cushion geopolitical risks. In Brazil alone, a 74,000-square-meter production facility is being built by 2028, which will serve the local market and export to 70 countries. At the same time, Novo Nordisk is advancing its pipeline. Partnerships for new drug combinations and early successes with preparations such as Amycretin underscore the innovation agenda. Approvals in emerging markets such as China and the development of new indications are significantly expanding the addressable market. This is a clear advantage in competition with rivals such as Eli Lilly.

Despite short-term uncertainties, the operating performance remains convincing. The net margin has increased significantly since 2020, supported by economies of scale and price management. With a leverage ratio of around 67%, the Company acts more conservatively than many of its competitors, which is an advantage in volatile times over the long term. Analysts also emphasize the attractive valuation. The current forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 17.2 is well below the historical average. Long-term earnings per share are expected to increase by around 17.5% annually, thus underscoring the foundation for further price potential. The share is currently available for EUR 56.55.

Defence Therapeutics faces a promising future

Defence Therapeutics is setting new standards in targeted drug delivery with its patented Accum® technology. The system addresses a core issue of modern therapies. Many active ingredients remain in cell compartments (endosomes) and do not reach their target. Accum® enables more precise release, increases effectiveness by up to 10 times, and thus simultaneously reduces dosages – a decisive advantage for safety and costs. The technology can be used across industries, from cancer vaccines to mRNA therapies, and thus opens up markets worth billions.

The partnership with Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL), a leader in nuclear research, underscores the potential of Accum®. Together, the two companies are researching the combination with the radioisotope actinium-225, which destroys cancer cells via alpha particles. Accum® could increase the efficiency of radiation therapy by enabling the radio-complexes to escape from the endosomes while at the same time reducing side effects. The global radiopharmaceuticals market, forecast to be worth around USD 17 billion by 2033, offers long-term opportunities here. Further collaborations, for example, with Orano in nuclear medicine, also signal broad industrial recognition.

With patents secured through 2043, Defence is not only securing its technology leadership but also creating the basis for licensing agreements, which will generate recurring revenues. Most recently, the Company introduced its new COO, Dr. Elias Theodorou, who brings 25 years of research expertise to accelerate commercialization. This strategic combination of intellectual property rights and operational experience positions the Company as an attractive partner for major pharmaceutical companies. Such a partnership would have a significant impact on the share price. The share price has rallied by over 170% since the beginning of the year. Since then, it has consolidated and is currently trading at CAD 0.95.

Pfizer – 2 reasons for a long-term view

Pfizer is strategically positioning itself in growth markets such as oncology. The billion-dollar acquisition of Seagen strengthens cancer research. In addition, promising new approvals such as the RSV vaccine Abrysvo and the myeloma drug Elrexfio are in the pipeline. These projects could fill future revenue gaps caused by patent expiries for blockbusters such as Eliquis – a key factor in stabilizing medium-term growth.

Despite declining COVID-19 revenues, Pfizer remains profitable. Planned cost savings of USD 4.5 billion by the end of 2025 and debt reduction of USD 12.5 billion in the previous year underscore the Company's financial discipline. The dividend yield of around 7.6% – fed by a sustainable payout ratio of 60% – makes the Company attractive to income investors. In addition, management has signaled continuous dividend increases, supported by stable cash flows from established therapies such as Vyndaqel.

With a P/E ratio of 8 for 2025 and an enterprise value to EBITDA ratio of 6.6, Pfizer is trading well below the sector average, which is closer to a P/E ratio of 15. Analyses such as the discounted dividend model see upside potential of over 20% once the pipeline shows progress. The current price reflects disproportionate risks, while opportunities like AI-supported drug development with partners like PostEra are hardly priced in. For value-oriented investors, this offers a risk-adjusted entry opportunity. The share is currently trading at USD 22.44.

The biotech and pharmaceutical industry remains a game for strategists: Novo Nordisk dominates the obesity market with GLP-1 drugs such as Wegovy, relies on stable diabetes revenues, and is building long-term resilience with global production investments. Defence Therapeutics is revolutionizing drug delivery with its Accum® technology and positioning itself as an innovative player in targeted therapies through a radiopharmaceutical collaboration. Pfizer combines value appeal and strong dividends and is driving oncology forward with Seagen to offset patent losses.