August 5th, 2020 | 07:06 CEST
Barrick Gold, Osino Resources, Triumph Gold - who will double next?
Table of contents:
"[...] We knew the world was rapidly electrifying and urbanising and needing significant amounts of copper to do so. [...]" Nick Mather, CEO, SolGold PLC
Born and raised in Hannover, Lower Saxony follows social and economic developments around the globe. As a passionate entrepreneur and columnist he explains and compares the most diverse business models as well as markets for interested stock traders.
Gold production will shrink
Companies such as Barrick Gold, Iamgold and Newmont are responsible for the gold supply. Without these large producers, it would be impossible to satisfy the appetite of the market. However, experts also expect gold production to peak in 2020. According to forecasts, this year around 118 million ounces of gold will be brought to the market by the largest producers. Starting next year, a decline in the annual quantity is expected. In 2029 only 65 million ounces of gold are expected to reach the market. There is still some time to go before then, but a decline of around 45% in annual production volume by the end of the decade has the potential to cause some panic.
Gold supply is getting harder
B2Gold, Barrick Gold and Newmont, as well as the other big names, have already recorded a reduction in reserves of around 34% overall since 2012. In addition, the time window from discovery to production is lengthening on average from year to year. Whereas in 2000 it took around ten years to extract the first gold, by 2010 it will have taken 20 years and by 2020 it is expected to take 30 years. The reasons for this include environmental protection requirements and approval procedures.
Takeovers and mergers will increase
The producers are aware of this development and are also engaged in the exploration and development of their own projects. As the price of gold rises, the margins of these companies will increase significantly and fill the war chest for takeovers and mergers. The focus will soon be on companies in the exploration and development stage that have already discovered or are about to discover more than one million ounces of gold. Ideally, takeover targets in already established regions.
Focus is on exploration
There are some companies that could be considered as a possible target. Osino Resources is focused on the development of its own gold projects in Namibia. CEO Heye Daun has successfully built up a company in the past and sold it to B2Gold. Osino is now also active in the familiar neighbourhood and will probably be taken over by a large producer in the foreseeable future.
Triumph Gold has projects in the Yukon and Newmont is already the largest shareholder. It is expected that these companies will be able to expand the gold deposits with further drilling, thus increasing the probability and value of a takeover. Exploration, i.e. the work of these companies, for example, is where the future supply for the major producers comes from.
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