09. July 2020 | 07:41 CET
Ballard Power, NEL ASA, Plug Power - what comes after hydrogen now?
The shares of hydrogen companies are constantly reaching new highs and the profits of the shareholders are increasing accordingly on paper. Paper profits are a fine thing, but they better not melt away. Selling in a falling market is usually harder than dealing with the lost profits from a rising share price. Given that hydrogen as an energy carrier is still a future technology that depends on many political factors to really offer environmentally friendly added value, it is advisable not to hope that the trees will grow endlessly into the sky. Realizing partial profits has not harmed anyone yet. The next big trend has already begun and it is time to position ourselves.
time to read: 2 minutes by Mario Hose
"[...] Why should a modular electrolyzer cost more than a motorcycle? [...]" Sebastian-Justus Schmidt, CEO and Founder, Enapter AG
Money loses value
One of the measures taken by politicians and central banks worldwide to combat the effects of the corona pandemic was to drastically increase the money supply. The consequences are obvious, the value of money is declining. Creditworthy investors have the opportunity to borrow cheap money from banks and invest in real estate. However, the danger of this form of investment is that the real estate is logically not movable and for this reason it is always subject to the influence of politics. Dues, taxes or expropriation, as already discussed in Berlin on a political level, can become a brake on returns or a problem.
Central banks cannot print gold
Very popular with risk-conscious investors is physical gold, such as bars and coins. However, there are some things that should be taken into account, as the buying and selling fees are relatively high and there are also risks involved in storage and other costs. Finally, physical gold does not pay dividends. Nevertheless, the gold price is rising and will continue to do so for various reasons. Experts believe that gold production will reach its historic peak in 2020 with around 118 million ounces. In 2029, annual production is expected to be less than 65 million ounces. The increasing demand for gold and less production volume on the supply side will cause the price of the precious metal to rise accordingly.
Reserves decline and the importance of exploration increases
Against the background that the gold reserves of the world's largest producers have also fallen by around 34% since 2012 and the time from discovery to production is increasing for various reasons, one area in the gold sector will be of particular importance in the coming years - exploration, i.e. the discovery of new gold deposits. Anyone wishing to invest in this area should pay attention to three essential characteristics: good management, promising projects and the ability to raise enough capital. Exploration companies have no revenues and investors are looking to increase value through successful drilling programs and further discoveries. Typically, a successful exploration company is taken over by a producer from a critical mass of reserves.
Gold companies with potential
If you are interested in exploration, you should take a closer look at the following companies. Desert Gold Ventures has projects of over 400 km2 in West Africa and still has a market value of CAD 25 million. Among the shareholders is the commodity expert Ross Beaty, who is also invested in Osino Resources. Osino has projects in Namibia and has a market value of CAD 114 million. In the Golden Triangle of British Columbia Scottie Resources is active and counts billionaire Eric Sprott among its well-known investors. Scottie has a market value of CAD 41 million.Triumph Gold with projects in the Yukon has a market capitalization of CAD 31 million. SolGold already brings CAD 673 million to the scales and focuses on its large projects in Ecuador.
Shifting can be worthwhile
The value drivers of these exploration companies are the scarcity of producers' gold reserves and the associated pressure to take over. The valuation of these companies is downright homeopathic compared to hydrogen companies. Ballard Power is valued at EUR 4.2 billion, NEL ASA at EUR 2.8 billion and Plug Power at EUR 2.7 billion on the stock exchange. Nobody knows how long the price development of the hydrogen industry will last, but if the Bank of America's estimate that gold can rise to USD 3,000.00 per ounce in 2021 comes true, then the shares of the exploration industry will offer enormous price potential.