March 28th, 2022 | 10:26 CEST
Aspermont, AUTO1, Delivery Hero - Digital business models put to the test
Table of contents:
Aspermont - The success story continues
The Australians' beginnings lie in the publishing business. With Mining Journal and Mining Magazine published continuously for 186 and 112 years, respectively, Aspermont is the leading industry address. But declining advertising revenues from the print business forced the Company to undergo a profound transformation, the fruits of which are being reaped today. The critical asset is the collected data of some 8 million decision-makers in the mining, energy and agriculture industries.
The result of the transformation is a disruptive B2B solution. Using the XaaS model, Aspermont distributes high-quality content to a growing audience. In the "Data" area, user behavior patterns are marketed and leads are generated. In the "Services" area, the Company offers customers services such as content, advertising, sponsorship and events. A subscription model enables predictable cash flows, and premium content is also offered.
An important future-oriented step recently taken by the Company is its entry into the fintech sector. Together with partners, a joint venture was established, which initially launched a platform to raise capital for professional investors on the ASX market. An agreement was also signed with investment bank SooChow CSSD Capital Markets, which focuses on young, high-growth companies in the Asian region for business consulting.
This new business is not visible in the Australians' figures as yet. The core business is doing well, as seen in the Q1 figures. Total revenues increased by 10% YOY to AUD 4.4 million with an increasing gross margin, and the XaaS business grew disproportionately. A detailed report on Aspermont can be read here.
Analysts trust the Australians to multiply profits in the next few years. As a growth driver, the fintech business will increasingly drive the momentum. Experts at GBC forecast a multiplication of the Company's profits to AUD 6.8 million as early as 2023. With an analysts' price target of AUD 0.11, the share has a fivefold potential!
Delivery Hero - Expansion vs. profitability
In 2017, the Berlin-based company made its stock market debut. The accolade came in 2020 with a promotion to the DAX. By 2021 the share price had more than quadrupled since the IPO. Since then, the shares of the world's leading local digital delivery platform for food have been in reverse. Following several acquisitions, the Group is active in around 50 countries in Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa.
In addition, the Berlin-based company also operates its own logistics on four continents and is active in the quick commerce sector. This future field of e-commerce aims to deliver groceries and household goods to customers in less than an hour. On April 28, the Group will report its first-quarter figures and fiscal 2021.
Analysts, on average, forecast a loss of EUR 1.5 billion for the past fiscal year, which is expected to fall to EUR 1.4 billion in 2022. Most recently, US bank JPMorgan halved its price target for the share to EUR 53.20 and reduced its investment rating from "overweight" to "neutral." At a current price of around EUR 37, Delivery Hero is valued at EUR 9.3 billion.
AUTO1 - No end to the downtrend in sight
AUTO1 Group offers solutions for the online purchase and sale of used cars and operates on the market with several brands. The target group includes both private consumers, who are addressed via platforms such as wirkaufendeinauto.de. In addition, the Group operates AUTO1, Europe's largest platform for professional car dealers. The Group is active in more than 30 countries.
Even though the Company recently published a stronger than expected Q4 result and increased revenues by more than two-thirds in the past fiscal year, it is still in the red. For 2022, the Company is looking to sell around 30% more cars and grow strongly in the private customer segment. Meanwhile, the profit zone remains a long way off.
Investors have been giving the stock the thumbs down for some time in an environment where interest rate increases are priced in, and supply chain problems are a feature. The share dipped below the EUR 10 mark recently and marked a new all-time low. The Group only entered the trading floor in February 2021 at prices of just over EUR 50. After a massive share price loss of over 80%, the Company is still valued at EUR 2.1 billion.
Digital business models have high scaling potential. However, the goal of revenue or market share growth is also problematic. The share prices of Delivery Hero and AUTO1 show this; the companies will continue to be in the red for many years to come. Aspermont shows that there is another way. With its entry into the fintech business, analysts believe that the share has considerable potential.
Conflict of interest
Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies in the future or may bet on rising or falling prices and thus a conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the right to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments of the Company at any time (hereinafter each a "Transaction"). Transactions may, under certain circumstances, influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.
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For this reason, there is a concrete conflict of interest.
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