May 2nd, 2023 | 09:25 CEST
Analysts in full swing - Nel ASA, dynaCERT, Enphase Energy
Table of contents:
"[...] Why should a modular electrolyzer cost more than a motorcycle? [...]" Sebastian-Justus Schmidt, CEO and Founder, Enapter AG
Enphase Energy - Downgrades after sell-off
The producer of solar micro-inverter systems had to cope with a real sell-off after the announcement of the figures for the first quarter and further disappointing forecasts for the full year. The share price fell by more than 30% to USD 164.20 within 2 days. In the process, the price broke through the upward trend formed since March 2020 at USD 172.17.
Although revenue of USD 726 million grew significantly by 64.6% compared to the first quarter of 2022, revenue stagnated compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, when it was USD 725 million. Enphase's net income of USD 146.9 million was down 4.5% from the final quarter of the previous financial year. In addition, the disappointing revenue forecast for the next quarter caused several analysts to lower their price targets.
The British bank Barclays lowered its target for Enphase Energy from USD 257.00 to USD 248.00 and downgraded the share to "equal weight". Citigroup rated the solar company as "sell" and lowered the price target from USD 285 to USD 267. Deutsche Bank also turned away from its original target of USD 280 and currently sees room for up to USD 240. In relation to the current share price, which is quoted at USD 164.20, there would still be a price potential of around 46% despite the downgrade.
dynaCERT - Still on the green track
One of the biggest obstacles for green hydrogen to establish itself in the mass market has been the high production costs of the gas. The technology developed by dynaCERT and its joint venture partner Cipher Neutron could put this problem to rest in the near future. The research and development goals of the two partners focus on cost efficiency and reducing the material costs of electrolyzers for green hydrogen.
The 5 KW AAM electrolyzer already developed has a much higher current density of 2 amperes per square cm than a conventional alkali electrolyzer with 0.07 amperes per square cm. This means that each cell of the 5 KW anion exchange membrane electrolyzer produces 28 times more hydrogen gas than a classic alkali cell of the same size. Market readiness for the small product line of the 5 KW AAM electrolyzer is already planned for the current year. On a larger scale, the production of a 250 KW electrolyzer, which will be suitable for future large-scale infrastructure projects, is under development.
A Memorandum of Understanding has now been signed with the Chilean company Molymet, a world leader in molybdenum and rhenium products, whereby dynaCERT and Cipher Neutron will work on the development, production and marketing of advanced hydrogen technologies, including AAM electrolysis technology, specifically designed to produce green hydrogen for Molymet's operating plants. In addition, the rhenium products developed by Molymet will be analyzed for use in hydrogen electrolyzers and other H2 technologies in order to develop better and more efficient electrolyzers and produce more cost-effective green hydrogen for industrial applications and the storage and generation of environmentally friendly energy.
Nel ASA - Analysts excited
While Enphase Energy suffered several downgrades, the financial experts are more positive about the Norwegian hydrogen specialist Nel ASA after the publication of the figures for the first quarter. The US investment bank Goldman Sachs raised the price target from NOK 20.60 to NOK 21. The investment rating remains "buy". The hydrogen company has exceeded expectations. In particular, the record order backlog and a significant increase in margins stand out. According to analyst Michele della Vigna, the recent price correction offers a good entry opportunity.
The private bank Berenberg also reiterated its "buy" rating. The specialists for hydrogen electrolysis had a solid start to the year. As a result, the price target was raised from NOK 18 to NOK 19. On the other hand, the Canadian bank RBC reiterated its price target of NOK 22 and continues to see the Norwegians as an outperformer.
Nel ASA posted a 68% YOY increase in revenues to NOK 359 million in the first 3 months of 2023. Analysts' consensus was for revenues of NOK 323 million. The loss of NOK 121 also beat analysts' forecasts, which had expected a loss of NOK 190 million. The main positive was the increase in order intake by more than 100% to NOK 580 million.
While analysts lowered their thumbs in rows after Enphase Energy's figures, Nel ASA had several target price increases. The letter of intent with Molymet, a world leader in molybdenum and rhenium products, brings dynaCERT and Cipher Neutron one step closer to securing an important role in the hydrogen economy.
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