Almonty Industries: Why is the share price set to multiply, and is the supply chain breaking down?

De facto unlimited taxpayer money for defense

Last week, German Foreign Minister Dr. Johann David Wadephul (CDU) announced at an international ministerial meeting that Germany will invest 5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) in defense in the future. This corresponds to around EUR 200 billion, which could potentially flow to companies such as Hensoldt, Renk, and Rheinmetall, as well as their numerous suppliers, not least to meet US President Donald Trump's demands for more responsibility on the part of European NATO countries.

China implements its plan - Companies follow suit

Almonty already successfully operates its own mine in Portugal and is soon set to become the largest tungsten producer outside China when it starts production in South Korea. The Middle Kingdom controls around 90% of the global tungsten trade – either through domestic mining or by processing imported raw materials. China is pursuing national interests and acting strategically. Almonty is therefore seen as a beacon of hope for Western industries, which are primarily concerned about the security of supply of this critical metal.

Almonty targeted as a takeover candidate

Without tungsten from reliable sources, it will become increasingly difficult to manufacture products such as ammunition or armored vehicles in the future. The high-tech industry also depends on secure sources of supply from allied countries. A prominent example is Apple's iPhone, whose vibration function is made possible by a tungsten component. The extremely hard metal is irreplaceable in many applications.

In plain terms: If Apple cannot obtain tungsten, iPhones will be delivered without a vibration function – or not at all. This is no longer just a question of rising prices, but primarily about access to the raw material. The global market comprises only around 100,000 tons per year and is dominated by a few players. If a major consumer loses access in the future, Almonty will become a realistic takeover target.

Entertainment or Defense – who wins?

What is the true potential of Almonty – and its stock? If Apple can no longer sell iPhones, this will have enormous economic consequences. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, Apple generated USD 46.8 billion in revenue from the iPhone; in the traditionally stronger fourth quarter of 2024, the figure was almost USD 70 billion. There are over 2.3 billion Apple devices in circulation worldwide. The question is: What would Apple be willing to pay to secure its supply chain in the long term? The tech giant is increasingly in direct competition with the defense industry.

NASDAQ listing brings fresh capital

Almonty recently announced its collaboration with the influential US lobby group American Defense International (ADI). Apart from Almonty, only one other raw materials company is represented there: MP Materials, which specializes in rare earths. The valuation comparison is particularly interesting: MP Materials has a market capitalization of around USD 3.5 billion, while Almonty stands at only USD 500 million. While MP Materials is already listed on the NASDAQ, Almonty has yet to take this step – a potential catalyst for the share price.

Get in now – and be patient

CEO Lewis Black has repeatedly emphasized that he is managing Almonty from a shareholder perspective. As founder and major shareholder, he has personally participated in financing rounds. It is therefore quite conceivable that Black would be open to a takeover at an attractive price.

Anyone who wants to be part of the upcoming launch of the Sangdong mine should get in early. Interest in Almonty will likely increase significantly once the first ton is mined. Sphene Capital analyst Peter Thilo Hasler recently raised his price target from CAD 5.20 to CAD 5.40 and reiterated his "Buy" recommendation. On Friday, Almonty's stock closed at CAD 2.40 ahead of the long holiday weekend (TSX: AII) – and as we all know, the profit is in the purchase.