Almonty Industries, Gerresheimer, BASF – It is not too late yet!

Almonty Industries – The countdown is on!

It will only be a few more weeks before the Sandong tungsten mine operated by the Canadian company goes into operation. Tungsten is a critical metal and is characterized by its extreme hardness and the highest melting point of all metals. It is therefore used in industry in the form of (super) alloys. Other uses include filaments, radiation protection, and medical technology. The aerospace and defense industries are also heavily dependent on tungsten.

The start of production and a further planned expansion stage, which will double output again by 2027, is a real highlight. Not only for shareholders, who have been enjoying strong price increases for some time now, but also from a geopolitical perspective. The Sandong mine will be the largest tungsten producer outside China. It is already crystal clear that the tungsten market will remain in imbalance for many years to come. Demand currently exceeds supply by 5,570 tons. The Canadians have already secured several long-term supply contracts.

Almonty is advancing a second project on its property in South Korea. A major drilling program was recently launched to update and expand the molybdenum mineralization, with a view to also going into operation in the future. Molybdenum improves the heat resistance of alloys and is used, for example, in electrical engineering.

The stock is currently trading at an all-time high of around CAD 8.50, corresponding to a market capitalization of CAD 1.9 billion. The stock's strong past performance recently led to its inclusion in the TSX30™ 2025. This is a huge accolade, as it means Almonty is one of the 30 top performers on the Toronto Stock Exchange over the last three years. Strong operational developments and the completed NASDAQ listing have given the share price a considerable boost in recent months. But the journey is far from over!

Gerresheimer – Analysts see significant upside potential!

The share price has been hovering around the EUR 35 mark in recent days as it attempts to digest the previous slide. The German Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) recently announced that it would be auditing Gerresheimer's consolidated financial statements and management report for the 2024 financial year. There is suspicion that the group booked sales in 2024 that had not yet been realized. This could mean that the packaging manufacturer may have violated applicable accounting regulations.

Ultimately, however, this "only" accounts for a few percent of the group's total revenue. What remains, however, is investor uncertainty. During the course of the month, the shares even briefly dipped to a 15-year low of around EUR 26.50. Despite this, analysts at Hauck Aufhäuser IB maintained their "Buy" rating and EUR 65 price target. In addition, the planned sale of the molded glass business could provide further positive momentum for the stock, according to the experts.

BASF – A zero-sum game

With its four core businesses of Chemicals, Materials, Industrial Solutions, and Nutrition & Care, the Ludwigshafen-based company is heavily dependent on raw materials, commodities, and energy. Price fluctuations in these areas have a significant impact on its margins. Some specialty chemicals require critical raw materials as inputs, putting supply security high on the list of priorities. In addition, the world's largest chemical company is suffering from decarbonization pressures and stringent sustainability requirements.

The bottom line is that investors have earned nothing from the stock this year, apart from the dividend of EUR 2.25. A few days ago, negative industry commentary from Deutsche Bank caused prices to fall. The bank's expert expects a weak second half of the year and paints a negative picture for the future with increasing risks, a prolonged downturn based on the uncertain trading environment, exchange rate effects, and competitive pressure. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, a total of 20 analysts assign the stock an average upside potential of 16% over the next 12 months.

It doesn't always have to be "Either-Or"

Investing means making choices. Value, growth, stock picking, or investing in an industry trend? Sometimes, however, you do not have to choose just one. With Almonty stock, investors get the best of both worlds: a long-term industry trend plus an outstanding competitive position. The situation at BASF is more complicated because the Company is more vulnerable due to its size and many business areas. Gerresheimer's stock was also exposed, first due to weak operational performance that disappointed investors, and more recently because of uncertainty following the BaFin investigation. However, opportunities are once again outweighing the risks.