Alibaba, Credissential, ASML – Profiteers and losers of the AI quake

ASML – Mega-reversal after the numbers

DeepSeek caused a stir in the entire chip industry last week. Not only Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor but also the world's largest supplier of lithography systems for the semiconductor industry, ASML, fell by double digits. However, the weakness of the Dutch company was short-lived because with the publication of the figures for the fourth quarter and the full year 2024, the ASML share price began a strong recovery rally.

In the fourth quarter, the chip supplier even managed to post record revenues of EUR 9.3 billion, beating analysts' consensus estimates. In addition, profits increased to EUR 2.7 billion, while the gross margin rose to 51.7%. The order intake was surprisingly high at EUR 7.1 billion, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of around EUR 4 billion.

For the first quarter of 2025, ASML forecasts revenue of between EUR 7.5 and 8 billion and a further increase in the gross margin to between 52 and 53%. The Company has also confirmed its annual revenue forecast of EUR 30 to 35 billion and is pursuing long-term targets of up to EUR 60 billion by 2030.

In addition, the Dutch company has announced a 4.9% increase in the dividend to EUR 6.40 per share. The Company continues to position itself as a key beneficiary and driver of the AI revolution and is aiming for sustainable growth in the semiconductor industry.

Credissential – Car trading redefined

The market capitalization of AI innovator Credissential Inc., which could redefine the online used car dealership, is just CAD 6 million, or the equivalent of EUR 3.98 million. In comparison, the market capitalization of industry giant Carvana is around EUR 50 billion. Of course, the comparison is not entirely fair, given that Credissential has only just completed the development phase of its proprietary platform.

The Canadian company's Dealerflow app enables traditional car dealerships to sell vehicles entirely online and to network with each other in order to manage stock levels together and thus be able to compete with large online platforms. On the other hand, the customer's advantage is that they no longer have to visit every dealer to find the right used car. Instead, they can use the app to configure their dream vehicle using an AI tool and choose from the growing network of affiliated dealers. Another source of income is the online brokerage of car insurance and loans.

The platform's roll-out is already underway, and the expected high level of scaling means that Credissential aims to achieve a free cash flow as early as 2026. The docking of around 250 dealers should be enough to achieve this. In the United States alone, there are around 280,000 automotive repair and maintenance centers, of which almost 20% also buy and sell vehicles.

Further value increases could also be on the cards as Credissential plans to hold its cash reserves not only in USD but also in the cryptocurrencies Ripple and Stellar. The Company intends to invest a total of USD 500,000 by the beginning of the third quarter of 2025. According to Colin Frost, CEO of Credissential, this innovative treasury management strategy aims to increase shareholder value over the long term and mitigate inflationary pressures. The world's third-largest cryptocurrency, XRP Ripple, is currently trading at USD 2.80. Many experts expect prices to exceed the USD 10 mark in the long term.

Alibaba – The answer to DeepSeek

Who will win the race to become the number one AI platform? Alongside the top dogs, ChatGPT and Google's Gemini, the latest, most promising chatbots are coming from China. Whether DeepSeek will be able to outdo the established players after the first wave of euphoria is at least doubtful. However, the Chinese e-commerce giant's version has also attracted attention.

Called Qwen 2.5, Alibaba's management claims that the technology outperforms DeepSeek-V3 and even ChatGPT-4o. "Qwen 2.5-Max outperforms GPT-4o, DeepSeek-V3 and Llama-3.1-405B in almost all areas," announced Alibaba's cloud and AI division on WeChat. Like DeepSeek, Qwen relies on an open-source model and positions itself as a direct competitor to the leading US developments.

Investors acknowledged the launch of Qwen 2.5 with a weekly increase in BABA shares of around 18% to USD 98.84. A sustainable bottom is forming after a correction lasting around four years, during which the share price plummeted by around 70% from its high of USD 319.32 in October 2020. A further buy signal would be generated if the striking horizontal resistance at USD 105.05 were crossed, significantly brightening the chart picture.

ASML was able to counter the DeepSeek shock with excellent figures for the full year 2024. Alibaba introduced its own chatbot, Qwen 2.5, which is more powerful than some of its competitors. Credissential has completed its AI platform for the online car trade and is about to scale it up.