A Geopolitical Turning Point Meets AI: Entering the Next Generation of Energy with Plug Power, First Hydrogen, and Oklo – What Matters Now

Plug Power - Europe Becomes a Market of Hope

For investors who have held Plug Power in their portfolios for some time, this may feel like déjà vu. On the one hand, the hydrogen specialist is finally poised to turn a profit; on the other, headwinds from Washington are forcing painful adjustments. The sale of a prestigious plot of land for a massive hydrogen plant in its home state to a data center developer recently brought in over USD 130 million. This is part of a liquidity push designed to keep the company afloat amid a more challenging funding environment in the US. Plug Power is adapting, pulling back from expensive prestige projects, and focusing on what can really generate revenue.

This primarily involves the green hydrogen business, which is produced via electrolysis using renewable electricity and is currently concentrated mainly in Europe. While the domestic market is stalling, Plug is supplying 32 tons of certified hydrogen to a new pipeline in the Port of Rotterdam and pushing forward projects in Portugal and Finland. The multi-billion-euro project pipeline in Europe shows that the technology is in demand. Here, the company benefits from clear regulatory guidelines that accelerate investment decisions.

Under new CEO Jose Luis Crespo, who brings long-standing customer relationships with Amazon and Walmart to the table, the focus is now on operational excellence. The 2025 figures, with revenue growth of just under 13% and a surprisingly positive gross margin quarter, show that a turnaround is not impossible. Sales of electrolysers, in particular, are booming, with record revenue of USD 187 million. The company aims to return to profitability in terms of operating earnings before interest, taxes, and depreciation by the end of 2026. Whether this succeeds depends primarily on how quickly the multi-billion-dollar order pipeline can be converted into firm orders. The stock is currently trading at USD 2.15.

First Hydrogen - Building a Bridge Between Vehicle Manufacturing and Robotics

First Hydrogen has made a name for itself in recent years as a developer of hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles. The company's light commercial vehicles have already completed test drives with fleet operators in the United Kingdom and can travel over 630 km on a single tank of fuel, with zero emissions. But the business model has long since gone beyond pure vehicle technology. Through its subsidiary First Nuclear, the company is advancing research into small modular reactors (SMRs) to produce green hydrogen capable of meeting baseload demand and independent of weather conditions. In parallel, a hydrogen production project is being developed in Quebec. The idea is to create an ecosystem comprising in-house energy generation, storage, and vehicle fleets, designed to enable economies of scale.

On February 23, the company announced a binding letter of intent that expands its technological profile. First Hydrogen intends to acquire a 60% stake in Exodus Actuation Solutions, a company with 25 granted and 11 pending patents in the field of high-performance actuators and robotics. The company specializes in so-called actuators, which convert electrical current into movements accurate to the millimeter. They form the foundation for autonomous systems, industrial robots, and electric vehicles. Those who master them can not only make manufacturing processes more efficient but also tap into entirely new fields, ranging from the maintenance of massive wind turbines to smart logistics solutions. Management thus sees the company positioned at the intersection of two future markets.

The financing of CAD 1.56 million, completed in January, provides First Hydrogen with financial flexibility for research and operational development for the time being. The funds come from a private placement of 5.2 million units at CAD 0.30 each and, according to the company, will be used for working capital and general corporate purposes. At the same time, the company is advancing materials research with the University of Alberta, where non-radioactive substitutes for salt reactors are being investigated. The goal is to lay the groundwork for a cost-effective, emission-free energy supply, for example for data centers or industrial processes. We can look forward to the upcoming news. The stock is currently trading at CAD 0.37, which is above the price of the last financing round - a positive sign.

Oklo – From Reactor Builder to Nuclear Integrator

Oklo is currently undergoing a remarkable transformation. The company, previously known primarily for its compact "Aurora" reactors, is increasingly positioning itself as a systems provider for the entire nuclear supply chain. The recent announcement of a joint initiative with Centrus Energy in Ohio underscores this realignment. By planning to establish deconversion services directly at the enrichment site, the partners aim to circumvent one of the industry's biggest bottlenecks: the supply of HALEU fuel. This strategy is complemented by a DOE-funded project researching fuel recycling in Tennessee.

Despite this promising development, the company's financial footing remains precarious. No operating revenue, negative cash flow, and operating losses of over USD 100 million in the past fiscal year are weighing on the balance sheet. With a quarterly cash burn rate of over USD 20 million, the cash cushion is dwindling faster than the long-term outlook suggests. The picture among institutional investors is also confusing. While some significantly increased their positions, others drastically reduced their exposure. The ongoing insider sales by the company's founders further erode confidence in the stock and send conflicting signals to the market.

For investors, Oklo remains a difficult investment, caught between high potential and significant risks. The partnership with Meta for a 1.2-gigawatt project in Ohio shows that major tech companies view the company as a serious partner. Nevertheless, the real test is yet to come. The NRC's final operating license for the first reactor has still not been granted. Without it, all agreements are ultimately worthless. The upcoming quarterly figures will show whether management succeeds in stemming the cash outflow and reaffirming the confidence of the remaining major investors. Currently, a share costs USD 58.37.

The energy supply of the AI era requires integrated solutions that go beyond traditional approaches. Plug Power is achieving the necessary operational turnaround by withdrawing from high-profile projects and focusing on the European market. First Hydrogen is building the most compelling ecosystem. It is developing hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles, driving hydrogen production via SMR research to baseload capacity, and tapping into autonomous systems with the acquisition of a robotics division. Oklo is the most forward-thinking in nuclear technology, but time is running out for the pioneer to demonstrate financial discipline and secure operating approval. In the future, the decisive factor will be who not only masters technologies but also intelligently integrates them.