April 4th, 2024 | 08:00 CEST
+100% and more with momentum stocks: AIXTRON, BASF, Exasol
Surprise! BASF shares have gained around 25% since mid-January. And the momentum could continue. Analysts see further upside potential. But there are also skeptical voices. In contrast, the Exasol share has only just taken off. The German AI hopeful has reported orders, the share has left the downward trend, and management is buying. Analysts believe the share could perform by more than 100%. At least it is certainly not expensive. Investors in AIXTRON are still waiting for the upward trend. Speculation has stalled the share price recovery for the time being. However, there are also optimistic voices from analysts.
time to read: 3 minutes
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Author:
Fabian Lorenz
ISIN:
AIXTRON SE NA O.N. | DE000A0WMPJ6 , BASF SE NA O.N. | DE000BASF111 , EXASOL AG NA O.N. | DE000A0LR9G9
Table of contents:
Author
Fabian Lorenz
For more than twenty years, the Cologne native has been intensively involved with the stock market, both professionally and privately. He is particularly passionate about national and international small and micro caps.
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Exasol: Share has potential and is building momentum
While the AI high-flyer stocks NVIDIA and Super Micro Computer are consolidating, attention is turning to promising second-tier stocks. One of these is a German AI share: Exasol. Artificial intelligence has to be trained with data. This is where Exasol comes into play as a specialist in data analysis (Big Data) with its high-performance software, Espresso. With Exasol Espresso, companies - whose 200 customers include T-Mobile and Adidas - can transform vast amounts of data into faster, deeper and more cost-effective insights. After a challenging 2022 and 2023, the share has found a bottom; turnover in the share has recently risen, and it is building momentum. The Exasol share is currently trading at around EUR 2.70, and the market capitalization is around EUR 72 million. According to analysts at M.M Warburg, this is favourable, and they recommend the share as a "Buy" with a price target of EUR 6.30.
There are good arguments for a further rise in the share price. Among other things, Exasol presented its own AI tools for data analysis in February and is expected to break even in its operating business (EBITDA) in the current year. In addition, the Management Board and Supervisory Board have bought shares in recent weeks. Sales successes were also achieved in the financial industry in the first quarter. Exasol extended existing contracts or concluded new contracts with a total of four customers from Europe and the US. The annual recurring revenue volume (ARR) is expected to be around EUR 1 million, meaning that Exasol is well on track to further increase its ARR revenue of EUR 41.7 million from 2023 and become profitable as expected. And then, of course, there is also the chance of a lucrative takeover bid from a tech giant such as Oracle or SAP in the current environment.
AIXTRON: Customers about to jump ship?
The AIXTRON share is still struggling to build momentum. The shock after the surprisingly weak forecast for the current year seems too deep for investors. The gentle countermovement after the share price fall was stifled by rumors that AIXTRON could lose important customers such as Wolfspeed and ON Semiconductor.
Analysts believe that the equipment manufacturer in the semiconductor sector can achieve significantly higher share prices. Jefferies recently confirmed its "Buy" recommendation for the AIXTRON share. The Company's technology in the area of equipment for the production of silicon carbide semiconductor wafers is outstanding. Therefore, the recent speculations about market share losses should not be overestimated. Instead, analysts expect AIXTRON to achieve a market share of over 50% in this segment in the coming year**. The analysts' price target is EUR 50. The share is currently trading at just over EUR 23.
BASF: Is the share running out of steam?
BASF shares are currently being driven by positive momentum. The DAX-listed company's shares have risen by a strong 25% in just two months. It is now trading at EUR 54 again, marking a 52-week high. However, analysts believe that the stock may be running out of steam. According to recent analyst comments, UBS remains the most optimistic. The analysts see a fair value of the BASF share at EUR 61. While Berenberg has upgraded the share from "Hold" to "Buy", the price target of EUR 58 has almost been reached.
Goldman Sachs rates BASF as "Neutral". The price target of EUR 53 is at the current level. Jefferies is bearish on BASF, setting a price target of EUR 43, significantly below the current level. For this reason, the chemical company's shares are only an "Underperform" for the analysts.
Exasol's recovery is just beginning. Positive company news, share purchases by management and the leap in profitability suggest that the AI share price will continue to rise. In contrast, AIXTRON will likely need more time and positive company news to convince investors to buy in. The BASF share has been convincing in recent weeks, but the air is slowly getting thin.
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