27. July 2021 | 11:47 CET
Vonovia, Barsele Minerals, Aixtron - That will move the prices!
Takeovers can move share prices. That is true for the acquisition of entire companies as well as for individual divisions or projects. Often the prices of the buyer and the takeover candidate react positively. But even if takeovers fail, it is no big deal because there are usually alternatives. These three shares are currently in an exciting phase. Which value has the greatest potential?
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ISIN: VONOVIA SE NA O.N. | DE000A1ML7J1 , BARSELE MINERALS | CA0688921083 , AIXTRON SE NA O.N. | DE000A0WMPJ6
"[...] China's dominance is one of the reasons why we are so heavily involved in the tungsten market. Here, around 85% of production is in Chinese hands. [...]" Dr. Thomas Gutschlag, CEO, Deutsche Rohstoff AG
VONOVIA SE - Takeover attempt failed, is there a plan B?
Recently, the second attempt to take over Deutsche Wohnen failed. With a tender ratio of 47.62% of the share capital of Deutsche Wohnen, the targeted minimum acceptance threshold of 50% was not reached. If the EUR 18 billion takeover had been successful, it would have created a real estate giant from the two largest players in the German market. The German Federal Cartel Office had already approved the transaction.
Vonovia SE is Europe's leading private housing company and owns around 415,000 apartments in all attractive cities and regions in Germany, Sweden and Austria. The Group also manages 72,500 apartments. At the end of 2020, the net asset value per share (NAV) was around EUR 62. Currently, the shares are listed at EUR 56, giving the real estate group a market capitalization of EUR 32 billion. Analysts forecast that the NAV will rise to just under EUR 71 at the end of the current financial year.
As is well known, all good things come in threes. Does that also apply here? Well, as Vonovia CEO Rolf Buch explained, after the renewed failure, Vonovia is examining possible options- "such as a sale of the shares in Deutsche Wohnen currently held by Vonovia, a renewed public offering or the acquisition of further shares." Given these options and valuation metrics, Vonovia's current share price weakness is an entry opportunity.
BARSELE MINERALS CORP - Only a few days left...
The countdown is on. At the end of the week, on July 30, the exclusivity period of the Company's planned share increase in the Barsele Project in northern Sweden will end. Barsele Minerals is focused on exploring and developing this project together with joint venture partner Agnico Eagle Mines. Barsele currently holds a 45% interest in the project. In mid-May, both parties signed a (non-binding) letter of intent whereby Barsele may acquire the JV partner's 55% interest.
That would be a big deal for Barsele. But under certain conditions, the deadline mentioned above can be extended for another 31 days. In essence, the transaction involves a cash payment of USD 45 million, but Barsele can also partially pay in shares and warrants. Barsele intends to raise the sum through loans and a capital increase. The transaction is expected to be completed as soon as possible. Agnico would then be a significant shareholder with 15%.
Since the beginning of the year, preliminary work has been conducted, and a drilling program of 3000 meters and 25 drill holes will be carried out. The exploration program is being carried out by joint venture partner Agnico Eagle Mines, which is also covering all project costs up to pre-feasibility. The Barsele project is located in the mining region of Västerbottens Län in northern Sweden, 600 km north of Stockholm and covers 33,500 hectares. It is located at the western end of the Proterozoic "Skellefte Trend", which overlaps with the "Gold Line" in northern Sweden. The main gold-bearing system remains open in all directions.
Currently, the Company is valued at CAD 86 million at prices around CAD 0.66. With such a large and high-quality project, Barsele could soon become a takeover target itself. But first, the acquisition of the project share from joint venture partner Agnico Eagle must succeed.
AIXTRON SE - The world leader
The share price of the high-tech equipment manufacturer has smoothly doubled in the last 12 months. The conclusion of a number of large orders, the increase in annual targets and a continuation of the good economic situation in the industry have given the share price a tailwind. With its MOCVD systems for the production of compound semiconductors, the Company is among the world leaders. These are used to manufacture energy-efficient power electronics, which are required, for example, for the rapid charging of batteries in mobile devices or components in electric cars. The Aachen-based Company's top global position has aroused covetousness in the past. In 2016, the planned takeover by a Chinese company failed due to interventions by the American and German governments. Good for shareholders because the Aixtron share price has multiplied since then. Currently, the shares are trading around EUR 21, giving the Group a market capitalization of EUR 2.4 billion. The analysts at Barclays recommend the stock as a buy with a target price of EUR 29.
It is a well-known fact that news makes prices. Takeovers, whether of projects or entire companies, are exciting. If the price and quality are right, the share price will rise. But also failed takeovers, such as Vonovia, offer the opportunity to enter at weaker prices. If Barsele can take over the shares, the stock should soon be quoted much higher. Aixtron is a growth stock that can manage without takeover fantasy.