July 30th, 2024 | 06:30 CEST
Viking Therapeutics, Vidac Pharma, Merck KGaA - In the footsteps of Novo Nordisk
Drugs for the treatment of diabetes and obesity have helped the pharmaceuticals manufacturer Novo Nordisk to become the most valuable listed company in Europe. But the competition is not sleeping. Many promising biotechs are already presenting new preparations that could overtake the Danes in the long term. Young companies with the chance of the next blockbuster also have great potential in other areas, such as cancer research.
time to read: 3 minutes | Author: Stefan Feulner
ISIN: VIKING THERAPEUT.DL -_005 | US92686J1060 , VIDAC PHARMA HOLDING PLC | GB00BM9XQ619 , MERCK KGAA O.N. | DE0006599905
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Author
Stefan Feulner
The native Franconian has more than 20 years of stock exchange experience and a broadly diversified network.
He is passionate about analyzing a wide variety of business models and investigating new trends.
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Viking Therapeutics - Share price explodes after milestone
At the end of last week, Viking Therapeutics made a splash that even brought the share prices of its competitors, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, to their knees. Viking Therapeutics, valued at USD 6.06 billion, rose by a whopping 40% following the announcement that it had made progress with a drug to treat obesity. The drug's competitive advantage over its peer group is obvious. While both Wegovy® from Novo Nordisk and Zepbound® from Eli Lilly must be injected once a week, a monthly dosage is sufficient for VK2735.
The San Diego-based company is now planning to introduce an injectable version of the investigational drug directly into Phase 3 trials. In a Phase 2 study, patients taking VK2735 reported an average weight loss of about 15% after 13 weeks. The pharmaceutical company Viking is also developing a tablet form of this drug, which is expected to be included in a Phase 2 study later this year.
In addition, Viking Therapeutics provided another positive surprise by announcing a smaller than expected loss for the second quarter. Specifically, Viking reported a net loss of just USD 0.20 per diluted share, a minimal increase from the prior-year quarterly loss of USD 0.19. Analysts were forecasting a loss of USD 0.27 per share.
As announced, Viking was unable to report any revenues for the quarter ending June 30. As of June 30, cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments stood at USD 942 million. According to analyst Hsieh of William Blair, this would be sufficient to sustain operations for more than three years.
Vidac Pharma - The 1,662 percent opportunity!
A mega rally could start here, at least according to analysts who analyzed the recently published results of tests with next-generation drug candidates in human and murine tumour models. According to the analysis, Sphene Capital sees a price target of no less than EUR 4.90 for Vidac Pharma, representing a potential upside of 1,662% from the current price level of EUR 0.278.
Chief analyst Peter Thilo Hasler praised the publication of promising results of the studies with VDA-1275 in several mouse cancer and human cellular organoid models of solid tumours. Vidac Pharma's study reveals that VDA-1275 is being developed as a systemic drug for the treatment of solid tumours and showed statistically significant efficacy as a monotherapy and synergistic effects in combination with two standard cancer therapies, as well as eliciting an immunological response.
Based on the three-stage discounted cash flow entity model and assuming Vidac Pharma obtains approval for its current core product VDA-1102-AK, Sphene Capital assigned a price target of EUR 4.90 and a "Buy" rating in the base scenario.
VDA-1102 is currently in Phase 2b clinical trials for the treatment of actinic keratosis and cutaneous T-cell lymphoma. It disrupts the interaction of the enzyme hexokinase 2 and the voltage-dependent anion channels in the mitochondria, which impedes the growth of cancer cells and promotes apoptosis - the removal of damaged, defective, or no longer needed cells.
Merck KGaA raises forecast
A strong second quarter and an increase in the annual forecast are currently fuelling the share price of the pharmaceutical and life sciences company Merck. Following the announcement of the positive news, the share price rose by around 4.40%, with a weekly performance of around 12%. If the annual high of EUR 176.25 is overcome, it could pave the way for the DAX-listed company to reach the EUR 200 mark. However, it is also quite possible that the price gap opened after the weekend's results may initially be closed at EUR 159.95.
In particular, the Healthcare and Electronics sectors exceeded expectations, with Healthcare more than compensating for the provisions amounting to a mid-double-digit million euro sum that the Company had built up following the failure of the cancer drug Xevinapant in a clinical trial.
The Company now expects annual revenues of between EUR 20.7 and 22.1 billion, whereas the lower end of the revenue forecast was previously EUR 20.6 billion. Merck has also raised its expectations for Group earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. It is now forecasting a figure of between EUR 5.8 and 6.4 billion, compared to the previous range of EUR 5.7 to 6.3 billion. The earnings per share, previously projected at EUR 8.05 to 9.10, have been adjusted to EUR 8.20 to 9.30.
Viking Therapeutics caused a sensation and sent the shares of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly plummeting. Merck surprised with solid figures for the second quarter and an adjusted forecast for the year as a whole. According to analysts at Sphene Capital, Vidac Pharma has an upside potential of 1,662%.
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