RENK, Silver Viper, Harmony Gold – Silver and Copper in the Global Commodities Race

RENK Group - Skepticism is spreading

The environment for the defense industry could hardly be better. In light of a tense global security situation, Western nations are ramping up their defense spending. Budgets are rising; Germany alone plans defense expenditures of EUR 108 billion for the coming year. Overall, the EU is aiming for military spending of around 2.5% of GDP. In this climate of full order books, companies sense an opportunity. The trend toward IPOs in the European defense sector continues unabated. Following the successful IPO of transmission specialist RENK in 2024, submarine specialist Gabler recently followed suit, and tank manufacturer KNDS is likely to follow soon.

The Augsburg-based RENK Group is benefiting from this tailwind and presented impressive figures for the 2025 fiscal year. Revenue climbed by nearly 20% to EUR 1.36 billion. Adjusted operating profit (EBIT) rose to EUR 230 million, corresponding to a margin of 16.9%. The order backlog is particularly impressive. With EUR 6.7 billion, the order books are fully loaded.

Despite these record figures, analysts were divided. The sticking point was the outlook. The forecast for adjusted EBIT in the current year, at an expected EUR 270 million, was slightly below consensus estimates. While experts at Deutsche Bank and Warburg Research continue to recommend the stock as a "Buy", mwb research views the long-term targets through 2030 as ambitious and rates the stock as "Fairly Valued".

The market's skepticism was clearly reflected in the stock price following the earnings release. The stock fell noticeably and temporarily slipped to EUR 52, far from the record high of over EUR 90 in October 2025. From a technical perspective, RENK is currently in a difficult phase. The price is trading below all key moving averages, which represents a clear sell signal. A sustained breakout is only in sight if the price jumps above the resistance zone around EUR 66.90. If, on the other hand, the price slips below the support level at around EUR 50, further losses loom.

Silver Viper – A Gem in Mexico's Precious Metals Belt

Following the recent correction in the silver price, many investors are wondering whether the rally is already over. However, much points to the contrary, as structural supply deficits, rising industrial demand, and geopolitical uncertainties could set the stage for the next upward momentum. It is precisely during such phases that exploration companies with high-quality projects come more into focus.

One such candidate is Silver Viper Minerals. The Canadian explorer is developing several gold and silver projects in Mexico, a country that accounts for about one-fifth of global silver production. At the heart of the portfolio is the La Virginia project in the state of Sonora. More than 52,000 meters have already been drilled on the approximately 6,800-hectare property. The NI 43-101-compliant resource estimate shows 253,000 ounces of gold equivalent in the "indicated" category and 445,000 ounces in the "inferred" category. New drilling programs are focusing on zones such as El Rubi and El Molino to further expand the resource. An updated resource model is expected later this year.

The Coneto project in the state of Durango offers additional potential. Over 40 epithermal quartz veins have been identified within the famous "Mexican Silver Trend." These are geological structures that often contain high silver grades. Historical data points to approximately 19.1 million ounces of silver and 286,000 ounces of gold. By fully consolidating the project, Silver Viper secured control over an area with potential district-scale significance. Mining giant Fresnillo has also become a major shareholder through a project sale.

Operational momentum is also evident. The company was included in the TSX Venture 50 in 2026, an accolade for Canada's most successful growth companies. With a market capitalization of approximately CAD 102 million, the valuation remains moderate compared to industry. Following a significant price correction since the start of the year, an interesting entry opportunity could arise here, particularly if silver regains momentum.

Harmony Gold Mining - Strategic Restructuring in the Shadow of the Gold Boom

The financial markets are in turmoil. Geopolitical crises, particularly tensions in the Persian Gulf, are driving investors toward safe havens. In this volatile environment, precious metals have increasingly found favor with investors. Yet while competitors are racing from one record to the next, South African mining operator Harmony Gold is embarking on a significantly rockier path.

The company is driving a profound strategic transformation. The goal is to gradually reduce its reliance on pure gold mining in order to instead capitalize on the massive demand for raw materials driven by the global energy transition. Copper plays a crucial role in this. With the recently completed acquisition of the Australian CSA mine, Harmony is now reporting its first in-house copper production. The ambitions are huge, as the goal is to produce 100,000 metric tons of the industrial metal annually in the medium term, for which billions in investments, including in the "Eva Copper Project", are planned. In the long term, management aims for a production mix of 60% gold and 40% copper.

This major push toward diversification, however, comes at a time when the core business is faltering. In the first half of 2026, Harmony recorded a painful decline in gold production of around 9%. Mechanical failures in Papua New Guinea and supply bottlenecks in South Africa caused output to drop, while at the same time, operating costs rose sharply.

The fact that the coffers are still ringing is due solely to the massive rally in the gold price. Revenue climbed by nearly 20%, and operating profit soared by over 60%. The bottom line was a net profit of ZAR 9.8 billion. Management is rewarding shareholders with a doubled record interim dividend of ZAR 3.4 billion.

Concerns about declining production volumes and the enormous costs of the restructuring nevertheless weigh heavily. Harmony Gold investors reacted to the earnings report with a sell-off, resulting in a price drop of over 20%. For bold investors, however, the current level around USD 15 could present a speculative entry opportunity, provided the company successfully navigates the balancing act between gold and copper.

The battle for silver and copper is likely to intensify further, opening up opportunities along the value chain. RENK is benefiting from the global defense boom and bulging order books. Silver Viper owns promising gold and silver projects in Mexico. With its copper strategy, Harmony Gold is betting on the raw materials of the energy transition.