Price Catastrophe and Despair at SAP and BYD - Almonty Industries On the Verge of a Technical Breakout

SAP: Between Margin Concerns and the Oracle Shock

At software giant SAP, expectations and harsh reality are currently worlds apart. The stock has slipped to around EUR 134—painful for many investors. This decline of over 30% since the start of the year is no coincidence, but rather the result of nervous market sentiment. The ball started rolling with a shock from competitor Oracle. When Oracle announced investments of up to USD 95 billion, alarm bells rang throughout the entire cloud sector. The concern was a spiralling cost that would massively increase pressure on profit margins.

What is interesting here is the difference in perception: while Oracle has already regained investor favour, SAP remains under constant selling pressure. Goldman Sachs, for its part, contributed to the stock's slide by lowering its margin forecast for the second half of the year. The main reason is likely the rise in hardware costs, and even those who had hoped that imminent interest rate cuts would ease the situation have been disappointed. Analysts assume that we will not see a return to cheap money until 2027. Even a multi-billion-euro share buyback program, through which SAP has already repurchased a significant number of shares, has so far failed to halt the decline. The technical picture is not just critical—it is catastrophic. The last support level has already been broken, and the share price is now likely to head toward the EUR 125 mark, meaning continued downside pressure. Only a move back above EUR 145 would provide some relief. The stock should therefore be avoided for now until a clear bottom has formed.

BYD: Price Pressure and Global Challenges

Things hardly look any better in the automotive world. Chinese electric-vehicle automaker BYD is in the midst of a transformation that is shaking the company to its core. CEO Wang Chuanfu has decided to break up the massive research department. The central Automotive Engineering Research Institute has now been split into five independent brand institutes. This is intended to cut costs and strengthen the autonomy of brands such as Dynasty, Ocean, Denza, Fang Cheng Bao, and Yangwang. However, the move comes at an extremely difficult time, as sales figures from January through May have plummeted by 20% compared to the previous year.

In addition, a brutal price war in the domestic market is forcing the company to continually push forward. Although the new flagship "Great Tang," with its state-of-the-art 1,000-volt architecture, is generating technological excitement and high pre-order numbers, this does not solve the fundamental problem of shrinking margins.

Dark clouds are also gathering on the international front. The EU is planning to expand punitive tariffs, which threaten the company's existing price advantage in Europe. Production in Szeged, Hungary, has also stalled following tragic workplace accidents. Trading at just under EUR 9, the stock is dangerously close to its 52-week low. UBS is aiming for HKD 135 (approximately EUR 15), but that appears unlikely given the company's core business is suffering from massive external trade issues.

Almonty Industries: Strategic Strength and the Path to Further Growth

While SAP and BYD grapple with daily crises, Almonty Industries is skillfully capitalizing on the geopolitical situation and emerging as a true major player with a critical strategic resource. Tungsten is not just any metal. It is the backbone of the modern defence and high-tech industries. Whoever controls tungsten controls a crucial part of industrial sovereignty. What may sound like a cliché is, in fact, reality, because without tungsten, hardly anything works in the defence sector—or even in the advancement of AI.

Almonty has positioned itself here as one of the few transparent, conflict-free producers outside of China. The company is no longer a startup that thrives solely on vision. With the Sangdong mine in South Korea, Almonty has a project that is already proving its worth in the first phase. Commercial mining is underway, and the expansion to increase capacity to 1.2 million metric tonnes of ore per year is in full swing. Financially, the company is exceptionally well secured through offtake agreements with partners such as GTP and support from Germany's state-owned KfW Bank. And this is not a matter of chance, but rather the result of hard work, a solid plan, and years of detailed preparation. Of course, a little luck is always part of the equation, but at Almonty, it is not just luck—it is the deliberate effort to work toward a specific goal.

https://youtu.be/D39rKLK2MN0

News Update: Sangdong as a Reliable Anchor

Recent news shows that Almonty is delivering on its promises. The USD 800 million placement of convertible senior notes was a real sensation in the market. The offering was oversubscribed, which can be interpreted as a sign of confidence—something relatively rare in the current market environment, especially given that the terms are not bad for Almonty. This fresh capital significantly strengthens the company's cash position for further development. At the same time, drilling results from the Sangdong molybdenum project are encouraging. The fact that grades are closely aligned with historical expectations indicates the reliability of the resource estimate.

The company's leadership also exudes stability. The reappointment of the executive board and the election of high-calibre experts such as General Gustave Perna to the board of directors show that Almonty is playing in the top league when it comes to corporate governance as well. The company is clearly preparing to take on a role as a global industry leader, while other corporations are still lagging far behind and struggling with their own structures or resources.

Chart Analysis: A Breakout May Be Imminent

The stock initially went into a tailspin following the announcement of the offering, but then rose like a phoenix from the ashes. The initial low is already a distant memory; buyers are back, and the critics have fallen silent once again. Currently, we are seeing the price move with impressive composure toward the breakout level at CAD 27.50. This level represents a psychological and technical hurdle (see chart below). Should the price break above this level, the path upward is almost entirely clear. From a technical perspective, the price could then move toward CAD 35, as operational momentum is supported by successful financing and ongoing mine development.

Conclusion: A Look at Market Opportunities

The market currently shows little or no tolerance for mistakes. SAP is suffering from unclear cloud growth and is under pressure from AI, which could render the entire software sector obsolete. BYD is stuck in a brutal price war and is struggling with international trade barriers and potential tariffs.

In this environment, Almonty Industries stands out as an option. Not only has the company consistently delivered good news recently, but it also occupies a strategically indispensable position that should benefit massively from political decisions, such as the US import ban on Chinese tungsten.

For investors seeking a tangible growth scenario, Almonty currently offers an attractive investment case. There are no vague promises at Almonty, but rather a clear strategy that is being implemented step by step. While BYD and SAP are still searching for a bottom, Almonty already has its foot firmly on the accelerator. This represents more than just an interesting alternative in the current market environment and is definitely a name worth keeping on the radar.