Oil, Gold, or Bitcoin? Is Now the Right Time to Invest in Shell, Kobo Resources, and Strategy?

Shell: Making Billion-Dollar Strategic Moves

Shell's latest quarterly forecast paints a remarkable picture. Production in the Integrated Gas business is projected at 610,000–650,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for April through June. This represents a slight increase over the previous forecast. However, the ongoing outage at the Pearl plant in Qatar following the March attack is weighing heavily on volumes. Trading results in the gas segment are expected to improve significantly, driven by higher prices and the delayed effects of long-term contracts. Refining margins are recovering to around USD 20 per barrel, while the chemicals division is rising from USD 139 to about USD 240 per metric ton. Operating cash flow is expected to return to positive territory following the massive first-quarter cash outflow.

The planned USD 16.4 billion acquisition of ARC has put the share buyback program on hold for the time being. Following the shareholder vote on July 14, it will become clear whether the program will resume. At the same time, management is pushing ahead with the portfolio restructuring. The sale of the offshore wind business is imminent, while new projects are being launched in Venezuela. The completion of the sale of the South African gas station network to ADNOC for USD 1 billion underscores the focus on the core business. A large-scale USD 6.3 billion bond swap improves financing flexibility. The full quarterly report at the end of July will provide further insights.

The crisis in the Middle East remains the defining factor for the LNG business. About 10% of Shell's production comes from Qatar. This is a significant portion that remains at a standstill due to uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz. European gas storage levels are below the five-year average, suggesting a tight winter. The long-term outlook remains positive. Shell expects demand to rise by 65% by 2050, driven by economic growth in Southeast Asia. However, the uncertainties stemming from geopolitical tensions and the accelerated withdrawal from renewable energy projects raise questions about the company's long-term strategy. The stock is currently trading at around EUR 35.935.

Kobo Resources: 2 Gold Projects, 2 Strategies – One Clear Goal

Kobo Resources is advancing gold exploration in Côte d'Ivoire with remarkable consistency. The Kossou project, located just 35 km from Yamoussoukro, has already completed over 42,000 m of drilling across 222 holes. The latest results from the Jagger and Road Cut zones not only confirm the continuity of the mineralization but also provide concrete evidence of the system's quality, with values such as 7.0 m at 5.67 g/t gold. The recently completed metallurgical tests by SGS yielded average gold recovery rates of around 97% using conventional processing. This is a crucial factor for future profitability.

The company's strategic direction is compelling in its clarity. While Kossou, with its proximity to existing infrastructure and an operating mine, is paving the way for an initial resource estimate in the second half of 2026, Kobo is pursuing a completely different approach with Kotobi. Although the infrastructure for the 301.75 km² project is still under development, this is precisely what accounts for its enormous potential. A standalone project with a significant resource base could emerge here as soon as the promising anomalies are verified. This dual strategy, featuring different exit scenarios, demonstrates that the company is not simply drilling but thinking systematically. The recent CAD 5.5 million financing, led by Funde Investment, secures the implementation of this strategy.

Crucial steps are scheduled for the second half of 2026. Currently, two drilling rigs are operating on the Kossou property, and results from the ongoing campaign are expected in the coming weeks. The release of the first mineral resource estimate for Kossou will provide clarity on the project's scale and underscore its acquisition potential. At the same time, the drilling program at Kotobi will begin in the third quarter, where four robust gold anomalies have already been identified. Investors following this development should not focus on spectacular individual share prices, but rather keep an eye on the systematic advancement of both projects. This provides the foundation for sustainable value growth. The stock is currently trading at around CAD 0.205.

Strategy: A Change in Strategy

Strategy, once a Bitcoin accumulator, abandoned its "never sell" mantra—which it had upheld for years—in the summer of 2026. With the new Digital Credit Capital Framework, the board authorized targeted Bitcoin sales of up to USD 1.25 billion for the first time. This marks a fundamental break with the previous doctrine. There was no alternative to this step. The STRC preferred stock had fallen 24% below par value, while annual dividend payments had skyrocketed to USD 1.2 billion. The once-reliable financing cycle of preferred stock issuance and Bitcoin purchases had stalled.

Between July 1 and July 5, Strategy executed the largest Bitcoin liquidation in its history. 3,588 Bitcoin were sold for approximately USD 216 million, well below the average cost basis of USD 74,476. The accounting loss is estimated at USD 11.4 billion. US dollar reserves subsequently stood at USD 2.55 billion, which is sufficient to cover approximately 17 months of dividend payments. Analysts are divided. While Barclays and Citi issue "Buy" recommendations, JPMorgan warns of an "avoidable two-sided risk."

Strategy has evolved from a pure Bitcoin accumulator into an active asset manager that uses its reserves as working capital for high-yield financial products. The stock has lost about 80% since its 52-week high. A recovery will not depend solely on rising Bitcoin prices. The key will be whether management can strike a balance between securing liquidity, maintaining capital discipline, and staying true to its original Bitcoin vision. For investors who believe in Bitcoin, Strategy, with a market capitalization-to-net asset value ratio close to 1.0, offers an interesting, albeit increasingly complex, bet on the future. The stock is currently trading at around USD 94.64.

The dilemma of choosing between oil, gold, and Bitcoin turns out to be a question of investment horizon. Shell is securing its present with a strong gas business and portfolio restructuring, but is grappling with geopolitical risks in Qatar. Kobo Resources is laying the groundwork for potential value appreciation in the coming months through systematic exploration in Côte d'Ivoire and two distinct project strategies. Strategy, on the other hand, has undergone a profound transformation with the sale of Bitcoin and the reorientation toward being an active asset manager. However, the success of this move remains uncertain. Short-term volatility at Shell and Strategy contrasts with long-term value creation at Kobo Resources.