Novo Nordisk, BioNxt Solutions, Bavarian Nordic – Opportunities after a horror week

Bavarian Nordic crashes after numbers

The rollercoaster ride of the vaccine manufacturer continues. After the stock more than doubled from around EUR 20 to EUR 42.77 since June of this year, it went into reverse last Friday. With a weekly loss of around 30%, the stock is moving in leaps and bounds towards the support zone at the mentioned EUR 20 level.

Disappointing third-quarter figures triggered the slide. Bavarian Nordic recorded sales of 1.36 billion DKK (around EUR 183 million), slightly below the previous year's Q3 result of 1.37 billion DKK. The analysts' expectations, which predicted a turnover of 1.68 billion DKK, were thus not met by a long way. EBITDA also came in at 250 million DKK, falling significantly short of the forecasted 566 million DKK, thus lagging behind market expectations. The net margin was 11.50%, with a return on equity of 12.50%.

Despite these results, Bavarian Nordic remains optimistic that it will achieve the forecasts, which were revised upwards in September. The forecasts predict annual sales of between 5.4 and 5.8 billion DKK and an EBITDA of 1.45 to 1.70 billion DKK. In addition, the vaccine manufacturer has already secured orders worth 2.4 billion DKK for 2025.

BioNxt – It is going to be exciting

In contrast to Moderna, BioNTech, and Pfizer, the downward trend did not affect the life sciences accelerator BioNxt, which focuses on next-generation drug formulations and drug delivery systems, diagnostic screening tests, and the production and evaluation of new active pharmaceutical ingredients.

Instead, the chart situation continues to brighten. After a rise in the share price from EUR 0.12 in October to currently EUR 0.16, the BioNxt share has been moving sideways for weeks. A significant increase in volume can be seen here. Breaking through the prominent EUR 0.18 mark would generate a strong buy signal with an initial short-term price target of EUR 0.23. The price is being buoyed by a rising RSI, which is on the verge of a buy signal, and the trend-following indicator MACD, which is already in positive territory and also on the verge of switching to green.

Fundamentally, everything is going according to plan at BioNxt. In addition to closing the first tranche of its announced non-brokered private placement of convertible unsecured bonds, raising a capital amount of USD 425,000, the Company has published a complete patent family for the sublingual administration of cancer drugs with the European Patent Office.

This is intended to extend BioNxt's development into the market for treating the autoimmune disease myasthenia gravis, which is expected to grow to USD 6.7 billion by 2033. If patent protection is granted in the first half of 2025, the patents for BioNxt solutions would be secured for the next 20 years.

The Company, which operates research and development centers in North America and Europe, already owns intellectual property rights to a sublingual Cladribine product for treating multiple sclerosis.

Novo Nordisk – Pressure from all sides

It is now common knowledge that the designated US Secretary of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy, is an outspoken vaccine skeptic. However, he also expressed skepticism in a September commentary in the New York Times about the weight-loss drug Ozempic, produced by Novo Nordisk. "Instead of fixing our food system and tackling the obesity crisis at the root, the author focuses on a drug that might alleviate the symptom – and please the pockets of distant Big Pharma executives."

In addition to the somewhat unfavorable nomination for Big Pharma, the Danes - until recently the most valuable listed company in Europe - suffered another blow. The Danish company Gubra presented promising Phase 1 study data for GUBamy.

The long-acting amylin analog is also being developed for the treatment of obesity. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the safety and tolerability of GUBamy. The secondary objectives were to determine the drug's pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic effects. It was found that GUBamy was generally well tolerated. Most of the side effects that occurred were mild and short-lived. Furthermore, the results show that body weight in the groups with higher dosages (3.5-6.0 mg) decreased by an average of 3% over the six-week study period, whereas participants in the placebo group gained around 1% in weight.

Following the study's publication, Gubra's shares skyrocketed by over 40%, while Novo Nordisk's shares lost around 7% over the same period.

The nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the future US Secretary of Health and Human Services sent companies such as BioNTech, Moderna and Novo Nordisk tumbling. Bavarian Nordic disappointed with its quarterly figures. BioNxt Solutions could reach a milestone with the approval of the rights to a complete patent family.