August 3rd, 2021 | 13:41 CEST
Nordex, Silver Viper, Siemens Energy - Watch out for storm warnings!
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"[...] Internally we expect the resource to significantly grow the deeper we mine. [...]" Dennis Karp, Executive Chairman, Manuka Resources
Born in Munich, he first studied economics and graduated in business administration at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in 1995. As he was involved with the stock market at a very early stage, he now has more than 30 years of experience in the capital markets.
Nordex - Green power with worry lines
The sell-off in the GreenTech sector continued in July. Whereas hopes had emerged in the meantime that Nordex shares would be able to swing back upwards after the successful capital increase, these were abruptly disappointed. With a significant drop of around 18% since the end of June, the turbine manufacturer has now reached a new low for the year.
Several factors are currently putting Nordex shares under pressure. On the one hand, the profit warning issued by competitor Siemens Gamesa and the associated profitability concerns are still having an impact. On the other hand, the fear of rising inflation and higher interest rates traditionally weighs more heavily on the promising green tech stocks, as the necessary major investments cost more money. Added to this is the recent capital increase, which mainly helped the major shareholder - even today, investors are still struggling with this decision.
The chart picture has also clouded over considerably. As a result of the sell-off, the share is now trading at the level of November 2020. The price gains from the beginning of the year have now been more than eroded; euphoric investors and buyers of the January movement are already down 40%. It will now be exciting with the quarterly figures on 12.08.2021. According to estimates, sales could increase by double digits, but only a barely positive result is said to have been achieved. Investors have already had to deal with some disappointments, so Nordex SE can only be advised to come up with a positive surprise. We would only take hold if these hopes come true.
Silver Viper - Silver can shine with many properties
Silver is also an essential metal for green technologies. It has excellent conductive properties and has a disinfecting effect. In an inflationary environment, silver usually benefits from the good performance of its big brother gold. With the last publication of the consumer price index in the USA with plus 5.4% in June, the statisticians opened Pandora's box. The US Federal Reserve is now coming under increasing pressure to tighten its lax monetary policy again to get the price spiral under control. As expected, gold jumped again well above USD 1800, silver followed in giant steps up to USD 26. There could still be some upside here if investors are looking for suitable inflation protection.
Silver Viper (VIPR) is a Canadian explorer searching for silver with its main property, "La Virginia," near Hermosillo, Mexico. Here, they operate an extensive exploration area covering 6,880 hectares known primarily for epithermal precious metal mineralization with low-sulphidation. Indicated and inferred resources suggest close to 20 million ounces of silver and approximately 400,000 ounces of gold.
Following a successful CAD 6 million private placement, further resource development plans are secured for now. The VIPR price recently approached the exercise limit of CAD 0.65 of outstanding warrants so that in the positive case of exercise, a further CAD 8.3 million could flow into the coffers. For the reasons outlined above, the stock should be shortlisted.
Siemens Energy - This profit warning feels strange
The wind energy sector is sending very indifferent signals. Industry giant Siemens Energy and its Spanish subsidiary Siemens Gamesa continue to provide warnings at the moment, but simply no actionable data. A EUR 600 to 700 million loss for Gamesa has been hinted at but not specified. The loss results from legacy costs from two larger incorrectly calculated orders in the past. In fact, this need for write-downs had been known for a long time.
As a result, the Siemens Gamesa subsidiary has now had to set aside provisions for said projects due to rising raw material prices and start-up costs and, according to the 2020/21 forecast, will achieve an operating return of just -1 to 0% instead of the planned 3 to 5%. That means that the first net profit will probably not be achievable until 2022/23. How high it will be is pure speculation from today's perspective.
Siemens Energy went public last year with high hopes. However, new problems are emerging - in the future business with wind power, of all things. The shares of the former Siemens Energy Division, which employs around 90,000 people and has sales of EUR 29 billion, are now listed on the DAX; at the time of the spin-off, the stock was trading at EUR 22. Now, a good ten months later, the share is almost there again after a brief flight of fancy - at a good EUR 23. A disappointing development, in our opinion. Basically, for a long time, there has also been no precise statement about how much margin potential still exists with wind energy following changes to many European feed-in laws.
Given the great uncertainties, we currently recommend staying on the sidelines. Should the price fall below EUR 22.50, the old lows from 2020 could be on the agenda again.
The stocks shown above operate in the environment of renewable energies or necessary metals. Siemens Energy and Nordex are currently stumbling a lot; the potential of the shares remains uncertain. Silver Viper does not have these problems because the valuation is low and the property is first-class.
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