Close menu




April 29th, 2021 | 08:47 CEST

NIO, Deutsche Rohstoff, BP - Demand is exploding!

  • Oil
Photo credits: pixabay.com

The massive inventory overhang, which still existed on the oil market last year and led to the crash due to the Corona pandemic, will be used up by the second quarter of 2021. With vaccination programs well underway and the economies of China and the United States recovering quickly, further demand is rising rapidly. Currently, it looks more like a fundamental supply deficit of black gold, with rising prices in the coming months. Experts already foresee a supercycle with oil prices just below USD 200 per barrel.

time to read: 3 minutes | Author: Stefan Feulner
ISIN: DE000A0XYG76 , GB0007980591 , US62914V1061

Table of contents:


    Winners on many legs

    Oil producers have experienced a roller coaster of emotions since March 2020. Among the winners were those who were able to react quickly and flexibly to the circumstances. The management of Deutsche Rohstoff AG, which generates 100% of its sales from oil production in the USA, proved to have a golden hand. During the Corona Crisis, the Company cut back production as much as possible, and part of it was hedged against the drastically falling prices. Anticyclically, it was even possible to acquire new areas for oil production at knockdown prices. In addition to the oil business, the experienced management was also able to build up a bond and equity portfolio during the crisis, which alone generated profits in the low double-digit millions.

    Production increased

    For several months now, the pumps have been running at full speed again. In addition to the projected volume growth, the extensive Knight wells are expected to generate initial revenues by the end of 2021. The Company invested USD 60 million in this project, which is likely to contribute to further increasing production volumes from 2022. The forecasts for the next two years, which were given when the consolidated financial statements were announced, sound very optimistic after a good start to the year. Consolidated sales are expected to be EUR 57 to 62 million in 2021 and between EUR 60 and 65 million the following year. In terms of EBITDA, the Mannheim-based Company is planning between EUR 42 and 47 million in 2021 and EUR 40 to 45 million in 2022.

    Deutsche Rohstoff AG currently has a war chest of just under EUR 45 million. As no dividend is to be distributed to shareholders this year, the savings are likely to be used for further acquisition targets. Additional strategic investments in critical metals around electromobility, such as copper or lithium, could be booked as portfolio additions in the coming months. The Company's CEO, Dr. Thomas Gutschlag, is also likely to focus on the gold card.

    Analysts see clear upside

    One asset that should significantly lift the valuation of Deutsche Rohstoff AG in the long term is the 12.8% stake in Almonty Industries. The Company is building the world's largest tungsten mine in South Korea, and it is expected to go into production as early as 2022 and produce 7-10% of the world's tungsten supply in four years. Analysts at First raised the price target from EUR 9.50 to now EUR 17.00 due to the positive commodity environment and the drilling capacities that have not yet been priced in. The verdict is buy. We agree!

    Better than expected

    Even though the oil multinational BP already foresees the end of the oil age and is looking for alternative business models, it was able to earn decent money from its original core business in the first quarter, even more than analysts had forecast. Adjusted net income reached USD 2.63 billion in the first quarter, a threefold increase over the same period last year. The group attributed the result in part to higher oil prices and refining margins. Net debt stood at USD 33.3 billion at the end of the first quarter. Thus, the figure falls below the target of USD 35 billion much earlier than expected.

    Strong dividend and share buyback

    Based on the good quarter, shares are to be repurchased up to USD 500 million in the second quarter. BP is leaving its quarterly dividend at USD 5.25 per share, as it did in the previous quarter. Barclays was optimistic about the oil giant's stock and left rating at "overweight" with a price target of 475 pence. The analysts cited the Company's strong long-term prospects as the reason. As a result, they could imagine a doubling of the dividend yield.

    Is the liberation blow coming

    Later today, analysts are eagerly awaiting the figures from electric car maker NIO. Despite the supply bottlenecks for its chips, analysts are confident about further growth. They say NIO more than quintupled its March 2021 deliveries year-on-year to about 20,100 vehicles, well above the industry average. The Company's leading role in battery exchange stations in China should also ensure further growth. From a chart perspective, the share would have to jump above the resistance level of 45.20 to generate another buy signal.


    Conflict of interest

    Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") may in the future hold shares or other financial instruments of the mentioned companies or will bet on rising or falling on rising or falling prices and therefore a conflict of interest may arise in the future. conflict of interest may arise in the future. The Relevant Persons reserve the shares or other financial instruments of the company at any time (hereinafter referred to as the company at any time (hereinafter referred to as a "Transaction"). "Transaction"). Transactions may under certain circumstances influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the of the Company.

    Furthermore, Apaton Finance GmbH reserves the right to enter into future relationships with the company or with third parties in relation to reports on the company. with regard to reports on the company, which are published within the scope of the Apaton Finance GmbH as well as in the social media, on partner sites or in e-mails, on partner sites or in e-mails. The above references to existing conflicts of interest apply apply to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH uses for publications on companies.

    Risk notice

    Apaton Finance GmbH offers editors, agencies and companies the opportunity to publish commentaries, interviews, summaries, news and etc. on news.financial. These contents serve information for readers and does not constitute a call to action or recommendations, neither explicitly nor implicitly. implicitly, they are to be understood as an assurance of possible price be understood. The contents do not replace individual professional investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell the share(s) offer to sell the share(s) or other financial instrument(s) in question, nor is it an nor an invitation to buy or sell such.

    The content is expressly not a financial analysis, but rather financial analysis, but rather journalistic or advertising texts. Readers or users who make investment decisions or carry out transactions on the basis decisions or transactions on the basis of the information provided here act completely at their own risk. There is no contractual relationship between between Apaton Finance GmbH and its readers or the users of its offers. users of its offers, as our information only refers to the company and not to the company, but not to the investment decision of the reader or user. or user.

    The acquisition of financial instruments entails high risks that can lead to the total loss of the capital invested. The information published by Apaton Finance GmbH and its authors are based on careful research on careful research, nevertheless no liability for financial losses financial losses or a content guarantee for topicality, correctness, adequacy and completeness of the contents offered here. contents offered here. Please also note our Terms of use.


    Der Autor

    Stefan Feulner

    The native Franconian has more than 20 years of stock exchange experience and a broadly diversified network.
    He is passionate about analyzing a wide variety of business models and investigating new trends.

    About the author



    Related comments:

    Commented by Nico Popp on January 24th, 2022 | 10:13 CET

    Mini P/E, dynamic growth and ESG profile: Varta, Saturn Oil + Gas, Gazprom

    • Oil

    We have associated modern energy sources, such as batteries or even hydrogen, with future investments for years. Indeed, it is extremely appealing to use renewable energies to feed both the power grids and the engines of ships and trucks. But this transformation is a Herculean task. We look at why investors have great opportunities in this regard and which shares are particularly suitable.

    Read

    Commented by Carsten Mainitz on January 21st, 2022 | 09:25 CET

    Shell, Saturn Oil + Gas, Plug Power - Energy stocks in focus

    • Oil

    Oil prices remain in bullish mode, reaching a new seven-year high. The latest increase was due to an explosion of a critical oil pipeline between Iraq and Turkey, through which up to 450,000 barrels of crude oil are transported daily. In general, the supply situation remains tight. OPEC expects a further increase in global oil demand. The primary beneficiaries of this supply shortage are oil producers; they were already able to post record results last year.

    Read

    Commented by Stefan Feulner on January 13th, 2022 | 12:45 CET

    TeamViewer, Saturn Oil + Gas, BP - Target price USD 100

    • Oil

    Oil prices continue to rise. A barrel of Brent currently costs USD 84.32 and is thus on the verge of breaking through a double top formation from the highs of 2018 and 2021. A breakout would generate a fresh buy signal, the target range of which already lies beyond the USD 100 mark. Underpinned by an easing of the Corona situation and an unexpected onset of winter in the US, a new 10-year high at USD 122.88 could even beckon. The primary beneficiaries of this inflationary development are once again the oil producers.

    Read