January 20th, 2026 | 07:25 CET
Never change a winning team! This triumphant trio belongs in every portfolio: Almonty Industries, TKMS, and Rheinmetall
In the current year, the old favorites remain the new favorites: defense and commodities. Geopolitical tensions and rising defense budgets, as well as demand for critical commodities, are shaping the big picture. Reflecting these conditions, defense stocks and shares in raw materials producers should continue to rise. Almonty Industries stands out in particular. Rising tungsten prices provide significant leverage for Almonty Industries, currently the largest tungsten producer outside China. When will the next price surge come?
time to read: 4 minutes
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Author:
Carsten Mainitz
ISIN:
ALMONTY INDUSTRIES INC. | CA0203987072 , TKMS AG & CO KGAA | DE000TKMS001 , RHEINMETALL AG | DE0007030009
Table of contents:
"[...] China's dominance is one of the reasons why we are so heavily involved in the tungsten market. Here, around 85% of production is in Chinese hands. [...]" Dr. Thomas Gutschlag, CEO, Deutsche Rohstoff AG
Author
Carsten Mainitz
The native Rhineland-Palatinate has been a passionate market participant for more than 25 years. After studying business administration in Mannheim, he worked as a journalist, in equity sales and many years in equity research.
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Almonty Industries – Rising tungsten prices as significant leverage
Tungsten is highly sought after due to its material properties, such as heat resistance and density, and is essential for defense, semiconductors, and the aerospace industry. As with many critical raw materials, the People's Republic dominates the market. More than 80% of the global supply comes from China, and export controls are exacerbating the situation. The price of tungsten responded last year with a sharp increase from USD 320 to USD 800.
This overall situation plays into Almonty's hands. With the ramp-up of production at the Sangdong Mine in South Korea in mid-December 2025, the Company is delivering exactly what is urgently needed in the Western Hemisphere: large deposits from a secure jurisdiction.
The world-class Sangdong deposit is of exceptional quality and promises a long life. The mine design was conceived in such a way that profitable operation is possible even in a low-price environment of USD 250 to USD 300. The current price level, however, is more than twice as high.
The current year is marked by a strong increase in production. In addition to the expansion of capacity in Portugal, the ramp-up of activities in South Korea is of particular importance. Furthermore, according to the Company, production is expected to start in the US in the second half of the year. A few months ago, Almonty acquired an advanced tungsten project in the US state of Montana, establishing a presence in a key region.
The Company has a large cash reserve and is therefore well equipped for all future eventualities. At the end of 2025, a capital increase brought around USD 130 million into the Company's coffers. The shareholder base was expanded to include long-term institutional investors from the United States. With its Nasdaq listing, Almonty now has greater visibility and broader investor access to the capital market.
CEO Lewis Black has proven, as can be seen from the stock's brilliant performance, that he has created added value for shareholders. He himself is the second-largest shareholder with just under 9% and has continued to buy in recent months. Analysts remain bullish on the stock: Cantor Fitzgerald set a price target of USD 10, while Oppenheimer set the bar even higher at USD 12.
TKMS – Billion-dollar deal from India
The share price of the German manufacturer of submarines and naval vessels has risen by almost half since the beginning of the year. The shares are currently trading just below the EUR 100 mark, roughly at their all-time high. The spin-off from the thyssenkrupp Group, which remains the largest shareholder with 51%, went public last year and is currently valued at EUR 6.1 billion.
At the beginning of January, the share price reacted positively to reports that the group was interested in acquiring the Kiel-based shipyard German Naval Yards Kiel (GNYK). GNYK specializes in the design and construction of large naval vessels and is part of the European shipbuilding group CMN Naval.
Investors were recently excited by the news that the group plans to build six submarines worth EUR 8 billion in India. According to the Company, the agreement is to be signed soon. Germany and India recently announced their intention to cooperate more closely in the defense sector in the future.
In the past fiscal year, TKMS generated revenue of EUR 2.2 billion and impressed with a free cash flow of EUR 784 million. In the current fiscal year, analysts expect revenue to rise to EUR 2.5 billion with a slightly expanded operating margin. The majority of analysts rate the stock as fully valued. In view of the new developments and an order backlog of EUR 26 billion, including the India deal, higher price targets are expected to be announced soon.
Rheinmetall – All-time high approaching again
Rheinmetall shares have also been performing well since the beginning of the year and are approaching their all-time high of EUR 2,007 again. Last year, the shares were among the top performers in the German benchmark index. The majority of analysts rate the stock as a buy and have set a price target of EUR 2,200.
Geopolitical tensions and rising defense budgets are filling the defense contractor's order books. Rheinmetall forecast revenue in the range of EUR 12.2 to 12.7 billion for the past fiscal year. For the current fiscal year, analysts forecast an increase in revenue to EUR 16 billion and a profit of EUR 1.8 billion. In the medium term, for 2030, the group is aiming for revenue of EUR 50 billion with gradually increasing margins. The German company is currently valued at EUR 88 billion on the stock market.
Shares in the defense and raw materials sectors should continue to be an integral part of a diversified portfolio this year. Rheinmetall and TKMS are benefiting from rising order intake. Almonty's growth prospects stand out as particularly positive. Rising tungsten prices are acting as an enormous lever for the largest producer of this critical raw material, whose activities carry geopolitical weight. Analysts are bullish on the stock.
Conflict of interest
Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as "Relevant Persons") currently hold or hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies and speculate on their price developments. In this respect, they intend to sell or acquire shares or other financial instruments of the companies (hereinafter each referred to as a "Transaction"). Transactions may thereby influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.
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