Liver cancer breakthrough fuels billion-dollar market: How Bayer, Vidac Pharma, and Novo Nordisk can now power your portfolio

Bayer – Between legal risks, innovation, and reinvention

Bayer will face a double challenge in the summer of 2025. The legacy issues from the Monsanto takeover continue to weigh heavily on the Company. The legal focus is on the US, where the Supreme Court may soon issue a landmark ruling on the long-running dispute over the weed killer Roundup. A ruling in favor of federal law could stem the flood of lawsuits, but until then, uncertainty remains. At the same time, the Company is tackling costs. Up to 4,500 jobs are set to be cut in Germany, with sites such as Frankfurt-Höchst slated for closure. The goal is clear. Efficiency is to be increased, creating scope for future investment, even if the path ahead is challenging for the workforce.

Despite the operational challenges, the pharmaceuticals division is showing remarkable momentum. Bayer is launching new products and expanding applications in a targeted manner to cushion patent-related revenue declines. One highlight is Elinzanetant, a hormone-free treatment for menopausal symptoms, which is scheduled to launch in the US and Europe in late summer. The Group is also expanding the areas of application for its established active ingredients. Kerendia could soon be used to treat heart failure, with accelerated review underway in the US, and Nubeqa is targeting a third indication in prostate cancer. There are also new treatment options for eye conditions. Eylea 8mg has been approved in the EU, allowing for longer treatment intervals.

For investors, Bayer remains a highly complex puzzle. The pharmaceutical innovations and progress in cash flow management are bright spots, demonstrating that certain aspects of the Company are well-positioned for the future. At the same time, the immense costs of restructuring, and above all, the Sword of Damocles in the form of US litigation, are weighing on performance. CEO Bill Anderson has an enormous strategic task ahead of him. He must make the Company leaner and more agile while simultaneously untangling the legal Gordian knot in the US, or at least defusing it. The share price has risen by over 40% this year and is currently trading at EUR 26.595.

Vidac Pharma – Promising pipeline with clear drivers

Vidac Pharma has impressed with robust data for its active ingredient VDA-1102. Notably, the results of an early study on pediatric brain tumors are particularly noteworthy. Here, Almavid, a formulation of VDA-1102, demonstrated excellent pharmacokinetic properties, including stable blood levels over 24 hours and a clear dose-response relationship. The clever mechanism specifically disrupts a key connection in cancer cells (HK2/VDAC1) that ensures their survival. This confirms the broad potential against solid tumors, in addition to the already positive skin cancer data.

The pipeline is gaining momentum. Promising Phase 2 data is available for the topical treatment of actinic keratosis (AK). The importance of this program is underscored by the EU Commission's award of the prestigious STEP Seal in June 2025. This is a strong signal and could open the door to further funding. At the same time, thanks to accelerated status, a Phase 2 study for cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL) is underway. The potential is also reflected in the opinions of analysts. Sphene Capital sees the Company clearly on track and has set a price target of EUR 4.30.

Beyond its advanced programs, Vidac is working on VDA-1275, a systemic agent against solid tumors with a promising preclinical profile. This offers additional long-term potential. The Company operates agilely with a virtual model and global partners. Clear value drivers are important for investors. Catalysts could include further clinical data on AK and CTCL, as well as a possible market launch for AK therapy. The combination of scientific innovation, tangible milestones, and external recognition makes Vidac an exciting and forward-looking biotech investment. The stock is currently in a sideways phase and trading at EUR 0.488.

Novo Nordisk – Competition from China

Global competition in the obesity market is gaining momentum from China. Innovent Biologics is the first serious Chinese player to enter this lucrative field. The Suzhou-based company recently received approval for its drug Mazdutide. Clinical data show similar efficacy to established Western preparations. This breakthrough signals that the market, which has been dominated by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, is becoming tighter, at least in emerging markets. Global corporations must prepare for fiercer competition, while Chinese companies could use their home advantage to their benefit.

Novo Nordisk is countering with strategy and new products. To improve access to its blockbusters such as Wegovy, the Danish company is focusing on more direct distribution channels and partnerships, currently with WeightWatchers, despite the latter's own turmoil. At the same time, the Company is pushing ahead with innovation. Promising candidates such as the oral semaglutide pill for obesity and the active ingredient CagriSema are in the starting blocks. CagriSema has shown impressive weight loss in studies. The goal is clear: new patient groups are to be reached, and treatment barriers such as injection aversion are to be reduced.

But the pressure remains high. Cheaper copycat drugs, known as compounds, are causing Novo Nordisk particular problems in the critical US market. This competition has recently dampened growth and forced the Company to revise its forecasts. The Company now expects revenue to grow by 13-21% in 2025, down from its previous forecast of 16-24%. The operating margin is also expected to rise slightly, although not as sharply. The decisive factor will be whether Novo Nordisk can win back patients to its original products and successfully market its promising pipeline. The ability to quickly turn innovation into market success is key. A share certificate is currently available for EUR 59.21.

The pharmaceutical industry is generating immense growth markets with innovations in cancer and metabolism, offering smart investment opportunities. Despite ongoing legal risks and restructuring pains, Bayer is bucking the trend of patent losses with promising pipeline products such as Elinzanetant and is showing positive pharmaceutical momentum. Vidac Pharma scores with robust clinical data for VDA-1102, particularly in pediatric oncology, and has received significant external validation with the EU STEP Seal for its AK therapy. Novo Nordisk is under pressure from new Chinese competition and low-cost US compounds, but is countering with improved market access and innovative candidates such as the oral semaglutide and CagriSema.