Just One Stock with Nearly 200% Upside Potential: Siltronic, The Platform Group, and Aspermont Under the Microscope

Aspermont: Transformation Underway, Price Target Rises

GBC Research sees nearly 200% price potential in this transformation story. Analysts confirmed their "Buy" recommendation for Aspermont shares following the release of the half-year results for fiscal year 2025/2026 (ending September 30). The price target was raised slightly from EUR 3.03 to EUR 3.30. On Friday, Aspermont shares closed at EUR 1.22 on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

According to GBC, the investment case is based on the now largely completed transformation to a subscription-based B2B model in the commodities and mining sector. Recurring revenue is expected to increase predictability and strengthen pricing power. The next stage of growth is expected to come from the Data & Intelligence division. With Mining IQ, Aspermont aims to evolve its proprietary data and historical archive from a content offering into data-driven decision support. It enables commodities companies to conduct in-depth analyses ranging from individual projects to geopolitical risks. GBC sees additional potential in increasing revenue per customer, expanding Mining IQ to additional customers, and cross-selling across subscriptions, data products, events, and marketing services. Since the data platform is expected to be scalable with relatively little additional capital, GBC anticipates disproportionately high margin growth upon successful commercialization.

GBC Research expects Aspermont to transition into a significantly more profitable growth phase starting in fiscal year 2026/27. Revenue is projected to rise from AUD 16.90 million in the current 2025/26 fiscal year to AUD 18.90 million in the 2026/27 fiscal year and AUD 21.30 million in the 2027/28 fiscal year. At the same time, analysts anticipate a sharp jump in earnings. EBITDA is expected to rise from AUD 0.15 million to AUD 1.67 million and then to AUD 2.93 million.

Siltronic: Losses Despite the AI Boom?

While Aspermont is recommended as a "Buy," analysts are less optimistic about Siltronic. Analysts at mwb research have used the recent capital increase to reaffirm their "Sell" recommendation on Siltronic shares. The German chip company is raising EUR 273 million in gross proceeds and plans to use the funds to finance long-term growth, strengthen its balance sheet, and support general corporate purposes.

The analysts point out that management had presented liquidity as sufficient during its Q1 earnings call. Given that Wacker Chemie had previously sold approximately 7% of its Siltronic stake at EUR 89.35 per share, mwb believes this suggests that major shareholders and the company are using the higher share price to raise capital or reduce risk.

mwb's fundamental assessment remains negative. While demand for wafers is improving—driven by structural trends such as AI, digitalization, and electromobility, particularly for 300-mm wafers—a noticeable recovery in prices and capacity utilization is crucial for a sustainable turnaround in earnings. mwb does not yet see this to the extent that it might already be priced into the valuation following the share price rise. Therefore, the analysts confirm their "Sell" recommendation and raise the price target only from EUR 65 to EUR 70 for modeling purposes. Siltronic shares are currently trading at just over EUR 91.

For the coming years, mwb initially expects continued pressure on revenue and earnings. Revenue is projected to decline from EUR 1.35 billion in 2025 to EUR 1.29 billion in 2026, before recovering to EUR 1.44 billion and EUR 1.61 billion in 2027 and 2028, respectively. In terms of EBITDA, analysts expect a decline from EUR 316.9 million to EUR 278.4 million in the current year. By 2028, EBITDA is then projected to climb to EUR 486.8 million. Despite the operational improvement, Siltronic is expected to remain in the red by 2028. While the loss per share is projected to decrease from EUR 4.90 this year to EUR 0.49 by 2028, it will still be a loss. Yet the business environment could hardly be better given the AI boom.

The Platform Group: High Risks

Analysts at The Platform Group have completely suspended their coverage of the company. mwb research views the risk at The Platform Group as significantly increased following recent media allegations. Among other things, potential tax liabilities, canceled bank loans, credit relationships, and issues at the level of individual subsidiaries are being raised. The allegations have so far been neither confirmed nor refuted by reliable external documentation. The sharp market reaction—with the share price falling further to an all-time low and the bond price plummeting to below 40%—signals that investors are now pricing in significantly higher financing, liquidity, and reputational risks.

Management rejects the allegations, has initiated legal action, and has announced a bond buyback program. Starting July 2, bonds with a nominal value of up to EUR 5 million are to be repurchased. A purchase well below par could make economic sense, as it would allow for the favourable repayment of liabilities and a reduction in future interest expenses. However, mwb emphasizes that the approved volume is small relative to the total bond issue. The key factor, therefore, is whether buybacks actually take place and whether they are sufficient to restore confidence in the financing. Last week, the bond reacted to the buyback announcement with a price jump to 49%.

On the operational front, mwb had previously pointed to solid growth and rising profitability in fiscal year 2025, as well as continued revenue and EBITDA momentum in the first quarter of 2026. However, in light of the allegations and the lack of additional, externally verifiable information, operational metrics alone were no longer sufficient to adequately assess the risk. In the analysts' view, the burden of proof now lies with The Platform Group. The company must credibly address the allegations and provide greater transparency regarding liquidity, banks, and credit relationships. Until then, mwb is suspending its rating and price target. The next key date is the publication of the half-year report on August 20.

The transformation story at Aspermont remains intact. According to GBC analysts, significantly higher share prices are still possible. If Siltronic is indeed unable to operate profitably in the current environment, this would be very concerning. The situation at The Platform Group is at least as concerning. The negative headlines continue, and the company has so far been unable to refute the allegations